Wednesday, July 8, 2015
Has Iran Actually Agreed to Anything?
According to a Reuters report, one already-achieved - and perhaps the only - outcome of the long P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran is that it has given Iran time to install a new anti-aircraft defense system. Iran says it has deployed a new domestically built long-range radar system that strengthens its air defenses. Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) air defense force, unveiled the Ghadir phased-array radar in Ahwaz city in southwestern Khuzestan province near the Iraq border, as reported by Iran state TV last week. Iran says the Ghadir unit is designed and manufactured entirely inside Iran and can detect a plane at 600 km (373 miles) and a ballistic missile at 1,100 km (700 miles). Esmaili suggested that the radar can also identify miniature unmanned drone aircraft : "Discovering and tracking micro aerial vehicles...is one of the special qualities of the Ghadir radar system." Iran developed its new air defenses after US and Israeli officials warned of possible military action to curtail its nuclear program if no negotiated deal is reached. Iran is also in discussions to buy the advanced S-300 ground-to-air missile system from Russia. The US head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, said in April that the "military option" against Iran remains intact. The United States and Israel say Iran is trying to obtain a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. ~~~~~ The concrete outcomes stop there. Iran and world powers meeting in Vienna have made some progress in their nuclear negotiations, but have not reached agreenent on issues such as lifting United Nations sanctions and the development of advanced centrifuges. Federica Mogherini, the European Union's foreign policy chief, said the negotiations would continue despite "tense" moments, while the US State Department announced that the current interim nuclear arrangement with Iran has been extended through July 10. American Secretary of State State John Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and other top diplomats in Vienna spoke of serious differences remaining, including inspection rules on suspicious Iranian sites and limits on Teheran's research and development of advanced nuclear technology. Mogherini said : "The last, difficult, political issues, we have to solve." A senior US official in Vienna confirmed to ABC News that one more clear difference had resurfaced, and explained that the US would oppose Iran's new demand that the nuclear agreement also include the lifting of the UN arms embargo on Iran. The official said America is insisting that any new UN Security Council resolution on Iran keep in place an arms ban and ballistic missile restrictions. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov left the talks for an economic summit in Moscow, he said that fewer than 10 major differences are still unsettled, including access to Iranian sites for international monitors. He said questions related to the easing of sanctions on Iran had been decided, according to Russian news agency RIA Novosti. Lavrov said he could return to the talks later in the week. ~~~~~ Diplomats had extended their discussions by a week when they missed their goal of a pact by June 30, after passing previous deadlines in July 2014 and last November. For Kerry and his team, pressure is on to reach a deal, in the face of unhappy allies, such as Saudi Arabia, France and Israel. Members of the US Congress also express serious misgivings about any Iran deal. The No. 2 House Democrat, Representative Steny Hoyer, told reporters Tuesday the talks "ought to be brought to a close. My concern has been that there would be a rope-a-dope sort of performance by Iran, that they'll just string out these negotiations," he said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was straightforward : "The agreement of concessions that Iran is set to get from the world powers paves the way for it to arm itself with nuclear weaponry and to distribute it even more through the missiles it continues to develop. How can you even trust a country that violates time and again the decisions of the international community? How does one grant Iran hundreds of millions of dollars without stipulating that this money will not oil the wheels of the terror machine and its expansion?" The only answer President Obama and Secrerary Kerry seem to offer for these concerns is to promise that they will hold out for a "good deal." ~~~~~ In addition, Iran still must resolve remaining issues with the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, which is responsible for probing and inspecting Iran's nuclear program. The IAEA is still trying to get Iran to hand over additional documents and information that would clarify the past military aspects of Iran's nuclear program. After meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani last week, IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said he believes "both sides have a better understanding on some ways forward," but added "more work will be needed." ~~~~~ Dear readers, President Obama is fast approaching one of the outcomes he most fears -- giving the US Congress more time to review any Iran deal he agrees to. If a deal is sent to Congress between July 10 and September 7, Congress will have 60 days to review it, and Obama administration officials fear that such a review situation could provide more time for any deal to unravel or for pressure groups to influence US lawmakers to oppose any deal. There are many contentious points as yet not agreed between Iran and America -- Iranian demands for the lifting of a UN arms embargo and ballistic missiles sanctions; the timing of US and EU sanctions relief; future Iranian nuclear research and development - especially of advanced centrifuges that would drasticalky shrink the time needed to produce fissionable material for a nuclear bomb; access to Iranian sites for international monitors; and inspection rights and protocols for Iranian nuclear sites, in particular suspect military sites. We might reasonably ask just what has been agreed in the last 18 months of negotiation. The answer is simple and disturbing. The US has agreed to lift some sanctions against Iran just to get it to the table. The sanctions lifted amount to something between the original official $7 million and the $25 to $50 million suggested by analysts. In return, Iran has continued to arm and provide military support to Hezbollah, Hamas, the Yemeni Houtchis, al-Assad and shiite jihadists such as the Moslem Brotherhood everywhere in the Middle East. In addition, the Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has continued to cry "Death to America" to hardliner Iranian mobs as he also tells them that Israel must be eradicated. I have only one question -- after any deal is signed, why will Congeess need 60, or even 30, days to say No.
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Why does Congress need to really see anything? Given what has and has not been agreed upon, and what has been given away by 'Team Obama & Kerry'; we certainly know the jest of what the agreement will say and in whose heavily weighted favor.
ReplyDeleteWe will give all the Iranians want, they will concede NOTHING. Israel will be in greater peril, stability in the world b will be very unstable. And our smirks’, grinning president will take a victory lap around the Washington Monument with Michele throwing radiation detector badges to the crowd.
To paraphrase the defining line (Build It and They Will Come) from the movie (that’s not about Baseball at all) “Field of Dreams” … Give Them Time and They Will Build It!
ReplyDeleteWhat imprudent person ever thought that Barrack Obama or John Kerry had one iota of an idea about negotiating a treaty with the impact of a nuclear arms treaty with the maniacs in Tehran? You don’t send neophytes when heavyweights are called for.
The United States needs to replace all the previously existing embargoes and sanctions against the terrorists (supporting) regime of Iran. Establish OUR expected line of expectations that Iran agrees to and from that point on play some hard ball with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
ReplyDeleteExisting sanctions and embargoes had Iran on the ropes and was raising the revolt of a class of the Iranian people against the regime.
Currently the 5 + 1 group that is negotiating with Iran is only being portraying the part of a 'court jester'. And the Iranian leadership is trying to alter the United States Constitution clause(s) dealing with separation of powers. But they seem to have 2 high ranking officials willingly playing into their hands.
President Obama has been obsessed with Iran, seeking to change its hostility by finding an answer to the problem its nuclear weapon program represents. That is typical of his “magical thinking” whereby something he wants is automatically assumed to be accessible. In the case of Iran, it has been hostile to the U.S. since its revolution in 1979 and remains so today.
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. was instrumental in overthrowing Mohammad Mosaddegh, an Iranian prime minister who set about nationalizing its oil industry. The U.S. staged a coup in 1953 and reinstated the pro-U.S. shah. “Post-coup, the shah grew increasingly authoritarian and, in 1979, the Iranian revolution forced him to flee.”
Iran is allied with Russia in supporting the civil war to overthrow Syria’s Assad regime. China is a major customer for Iran’s oil.
The Iranians have been negotiating a very long time and a recent statement by an Iranian official sums up what they have been saying for years. “We need more time to resolve technical issues and don’t forget that the time frame for lifting sanctions is still a huge dispute.” The longer they negotiate, the closer they get to having the nuclear weapons they want.
If the negotiations continue, it will be because the negotiators have once again caved into Iran and there will be no surprise about that. The real surprise will be the announcement that Iran has tested a nuclear weapon and, in the end, that should not be a surprise.