Tuesday, June 30, 2015

The GOP Has Too Many 2016 Candidates

Americans want change and reforms, but "people don't think any of this is going to happen," Stan Greenberg, chairman and CEO of polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, said during a recent reporter roundtable organized by the Christian Science Monitor. Their skepticism isn't based on the idea of a Democratic nominee who would follow a two-term Democrat, President Obama. "It's because the old political system is uniquely corrupted" in their eyes, Greenberg said. "What matters is how deep the critique people have about what's happening in the country, both politically and economically." Greenberg said that voters define corruption as money in politics and Washington power brokers who are self-serving and disconnected from everyday Americans and their concerns. This is why Clinton's wealth, the Clinton family wealth, the Clinton Foundation's fundraising, her decades lived as a VIP, and her missing emails discourage some voters from accepting the leading Democratic candidate as trustworthy, even if they favor the economic and social policies she stakes out. The poll shows a 31% to 31% dead heat about whether voters think Democrats or Republicans can bring about the sweeping changes they see as necessary for America's future. ~~~~~ These insights make it more understandable that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining on Hillary Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire. His appeal is as an issue-oriented protest candidate potentially capable of slowing any coronation of front-runner Clinton. In simultaneous surveys, Senator Sanders received nearly 25% support from likely Democratic caucus and primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire -- the states that host the first presidential nomination balloting early next year -- cutting sharply into Clinton's still-large lead. The polls suggest substantive and symbolic support for Sanders, the self-proclaimed socialist, while Jeb Bush tops the list of GOP contenders with 15% support among Republican primary voters. That’s up from 12% last month and his best showing yet.  Support for Trump more than doubled since his announcement and that catapults him into the top tier at 11% -- but there is always a post-announcement spike in polls and it will take a month for Trump's real attraction to show, although it must be said that his conservative-populist message could push him up in GOP polls in the same way a similar populist, albeit socialist, message has pushed Bernie Sanders up in Democratic polls. Trump was followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10%, ostensibly another non-politician outsider with a more sophisticated but nevertheless populist message. No one else receives double-digit backing. ~~~~~ Dear readers, the most important message coming from the presidential polls is subliminal. It is the hidden message of GOP voters who are saying that they cannot choose a candidate-leader because there are simply way too many wannabes muddying the waters with messages tweeked to help them get to the magic top 10 threshold for inclusion in the GOP debates that begin in September. There are now 16 - count them - 16 Republican candidates. That is outrageous and it seems more like a Broadway musical comedy than a serious quest to choose the best Republican candidate for President. Hillary Clinton has only Bernie Sanders to cope with. How is Jeb Bush, who leads every GOP poll every time, supposed to cope with 15 others? -- by ignoring them and delivering his message everyday and as widely as possible. Case in point -- a late June Fox News poll that asked questions looking ahead to the 2016 general election found that Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush are tied at 43% each, with 6% undecided. The 15 other Republicans should consider that result every night when they review their day. There comes a time in each party when it becomes clear that some presidential candidates will not make the cut. Their task at that moment is to step aside, do their best to deliver party unity from their supporters and begin to think about how they might serve America in other roles. If not before, then immediately after the top ten are chosen for the first GOP debate, those not included should do the decent and honorable thing -- support the GOP by withdrawing. This is a critical election. It may well be the last chance to lead the United States back to constitutional government that respects the majority as well as minorities. That may sound biased. It isn't. Without majority rule, the Constitution becomes a handbook for community organizers. America has been there and done that. It didn't work -- not for anyone. It is time for the change Americans want.

5 comments:

  1. The GOP can't go past late September without at least 6 of their candidates that have not a snowball in H_ _ _ chance of winning the nomination let alone the Presidential election.

    It's OK to test the water, print up some literature for in their scrapbook, travel to various states, but as Kenny Rogers sang ... "You've got to known when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em."

    Well for 75% of the GOP wannabes September will be the time to fold 'em.

    ReplyDelete
  2. There are 16 GOP candidates with name recognition and accomplishments. There is another 14 GOP candidates that have NO name or face recognition and little to NO tangible credentials to be running for a shot to be President of the United States.

    There is no “On The Job Training” for this position. Come January 20, 2017 @ 1 minute past Noon you’d had better be up and running.

    Half of the above 16 individuals with name recognition & accomplishments have not the slightest chance at the nomination let alone winning the general election.

    All you candidates should take a step back and examine your ability to handle the serious questions of this forth coming presidential election. You all could fit into the administration very well someplace – but not in the top slot.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The GOP should be happy with its crowd of contestants, since if anything, this busy, crowded primary is exciting. And while excitement doesn’t produce votes, it doesn’t hurt either.

    ReplyDelete
  4. De Oppressor LiberJune 30, 2015 at 10:21 PM

    Democrats will scoff at the plethora of Republican wannabes, even as they find themselves stuck with a pretender who lays claim to the highest office of the land by virtue of her gender and her presumed “right of succession.” Her progressive challengers thus far are like pups yapping at her majesty’s heels. Yet in the Democrat camp, there has been a gnawing concern that no competition could be worse than too much.


    ReplyDelete
  5. One look at the reaction to Bruce Jenner on Vanity Fair’s cover, and it’s obvious that the public’s interest in someone running away from sexual constraints is a whole lot greater at present than it is for anyone running for president of the United States. Still, there is a common thread. To make the cut in the most crowded primary in U.S. history, Republican hopefuls must find a unique way to separate themselves from the pack by grabbing the attention of the American electorate.

    It’s a daunting task, and it won’t be accomplished simply by declaring oneself the only true “conservative” on board. In today’s political environment, electing a candidate based on some indefinable measure of ideological purity is outdated.

    Besides, all Republicans in contention identify themselves as conservatives.

    ReplyDelete