Saturday Email Bag -- Iran, Greece, US Presidential Elections

It's Saturday email bag time...after two Saturdays of other events too important to miss. Your emails for the past few weeks cover several topics, so instead of trying to choose one, let's comment on all the topics. ~~~~~ Why are the Iran talks so quiet when the deadline is fast approaching? Well, first, Secretary of State John Kerry broke his leg and spent two weeks in the hospital. And, second, Iran has used the approaching deadline to speak out about its non-negotiable items : no inspection of military sites, no unannounced inspections of any sort, and no exportation of the nuclear fuel materials stockpile that has grown 20% duting negotiations, according to the IAEA. The P5+1 negotiators hzve chosen not to respond publicly. So, what must Obama and the P5+1 demand from their side as non-negotiable items? *Access to all sites immediately as required by the Additional Protocol agreed in Lausanne and Code 3.1 of the 1974 Safeguard Agreements, which imposes a requirement of advance notice to the IAEA in Vienna of any intention to build any new nuclear facility. *The history of Iran's covert military activity cannot any longer remain covert, despite the insistence of Kerry this week that the US knows everything about Iran's nuclear program -- an assertion many experts find hard to accept at face value. *Exportation of all but 300 kg of enriched uranium to Russia so that for 15 years at least Iran would never have more than 300 kg of nuclear fuel, or IAEA-controlled conversion of all enriched uranium into reactor rods. *Unannounced inspection rights of all Iranian nuclear sites, including underground and military sites. Some of this has already been abandoned by Secretary Kerry, who signaled for the first time last Tuesday that the US is prepared to ease economic sanctions on Iran without fully resolving evidence suggesting that Iran’s scientists have been involved in secret work on nuclear weapons. In his first news conference since breaking his leg last month, Kerry suggested that major sanctions blocking oil sales and financial transfers might be lifted long before international inspectors get definitive answers to their longstanding questions about Iranian experiments and nuclear design work that appeared aimed at developing a bomb. Obama's rush to seal the deal continues as he abandons yet another control meant to keep Iran as honest as possible. ~~~~~Why won't Greece simply agree to the offered Eurozone -- that is, Eurogroup of Eurozone finance ministers -- solution and take the next tranch of bailout money? First, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras and his leftist government were elected to renegotiate the terms of the bailout deal. The Eurogroup has thus far refused to do this. And, being a socialist, Tsipras naturally looks out for the public sector and its supporters, who are the poor working and poor retired Greeks - so his demands are no 23% VAT on electricity and no additional 20% cut in pensions already cut by 50%. There is also the question of the Greek economy. Tsipras and his finance minister Varoufakis may be holding out for the best last-minute deal -- a good idea because the severe austerity program imposed on Greece has shrunk Greek GDP by 25% and increased unemployment to 26% overall and 50% for young Greeks, who are fleeing their country, taking its future with them. Austerity alone cannot solve these economic problems. Only a radical renegotiation of the Greek bailout debt can, if Greece is to stay in the Eurozone. If Greece defaulted, renegotiation of its debt and a reasonable austerity program, with a devalued drachma to support the other measures, would work much faster. Because Greece is in the Eurozone, these traditional methods can't be used. So, it is now time for the Eurogroup, the ECB and the IMF to seriously address the real Greek issues and find novel, realistic solutions. ~~~~~ And, finally, the most unusual question ever sent to the email bag. What would happen if President Obama refused to leave his post after the 2016 election for his successor? This has never happened in the 226 years since the US Constitition was ratified in 1789. When the presidential.election process is followed -- Article II and Amendments 12, 22 and 25 of the US Constitution -- the newly elected President is sworn into office on the following January 20th at noon. At that moment, presidential power passes to the new President. If at that moment the outgoing President refused to relinquish power, the Attorney General and FBI would order federal marshals to arrest him. If the refusal to cede power came between the election and the swearing-in, the Vice President with a majority of the major cabinet officers would write to the Senate President Pro-Tempore and the Speaker of the House to declare the President unfit to carry out his duties and the Vice President would assume the office of President until the swearing-in. If the Vice President happened to be in collusion with the rogue President, the Speaker would become interim President. But, this procedure, spelled out in the Constitition, while accurate, is untested and thus is surmise on my part because it has never happened. There could be alternate scenarios, but they are better left aside. I think President Obama is as weary of dealing with America as America is weary of dealing with him. They will part company on January 20, 2017, with kindly words and a sigh of relief. ~~~~~ Dear readets, please join us by sending your emails with comments, questions, quotes -- whatever you choose. The address is casey.popshots@yahoo.com. We'll be back with another email bag next Saturday.