Hillary's Falling Polls Are Attracting Democratic Challengers for the 2016 Nomination

Hillary Clinton's honeymoon with America seems to be over. New polls show that the former Secretary of State’s favorability rating continues to fall. New CNN/ORC and Washington Post-ABC News polls revealed growing negative voter assessments of her personality – particularly her trustworthiness (see yesterday's blog). But, the new polls also show that the House Republicans’ persistent investigation of Clinton's role surrounding the 2012 terrorist attack against the US diplomatic compound in Benghazi that killed four Americans, including US Ambassador Chris Steven, is gaining traction with the public. When the pollsters asked whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Clinton handled the Benghazi crisis, just 38% told the CNN surveyors they were satisfied, while 58% were dissatisfied, compared to 43% who were satisfied and 55% who were dissatisfied when asked in May 2014. When asked whether the Republicans have gone too far in pursuing an investigation of Clinton’s role in the tragic Benghazi events, as is often argued by Clinton supporters and congressional Democrats, 51% said they thought the Republicans were handling the investigation appropriately, while only 41% thought they had gone too far. In May 2014, only 48% of respondents said the Republicans had handled the probe appropriately and 44% said they had gone too far. Half those surveyed for the new Washington Post-ABC news poll said they disapprove of the way Clinton is handling questions about Benghazi and 55% said they think the issue is fair game in the 2016 presidential election. ~~~~~ These findings are significant because they tend to affirm GOP assertions that the on-going Benghazi inquiry is a legitimate probe of what happened before during and after the attacks, not a partisan effort to taint Hillary Clinton because she is the frontrunner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. After several inconclusive prior investigations, it seemed that the Republicans were again going to fail with their latest investigation chaired by Representative Trey Gowdy. But, after months of trying to pry emails and other documents loose from the State Department, the House Select Committee on Benghazi started to hit paydirt on May 29 when Gowdy announced that State had handed over 4,000 pages of new documents to the Committee. And, the State Department has said that it is in the process of reviewing the 55,000 pages of Clinton’s official emails during her four years at State. The ruling of US District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras ordering State to disclose records batch by batch as they have been reviewed assures a steady release of documents throughout the summer and fall, as the 2016 campaign ramps up. Gowdy and other Republicans are seeking additional materials related to Clinton and some of her former top staffers, and on Tuesday, the House Appropriations Committee proposed cutting the State Department’s operating budget by $700 million - 15% - until State meets requirements related to proper management of the Freedom of Information Act and electronic communications. ~~~~~ The public’s declining view of Hillary Clinton, until now regarded as the shoo-in Democratic presidential nominee, relates not only to her lack of trustworthiness and her role in the Benghazi attacks but also to ongoing negative media coverage about the Clinton Family Foundation’s questionable fundraising practices, the tens of millions of dollars Hillary and Bill Clinton made giving speeches after they left the White House, the allegations of their influence peddling while she was Secretary of State, and the controversy over her use of a personal email server while she was at the State Department. These negative elements are now showing up in her polls. Two months ago, Clinton’s favorability rating in the CNN/ORC poll was 53% favorable to 44% unfavorable, a nine-point advantage. In the new poll, it is 46% favorable to 50% unfavorable - a large negative swing. In head-to-head match-ups against top Republicans, Clinton’s margin is less than it has been at any point in the CNN/ORC's poll. ~~~~~ So, Hillary has a lot of work to do in restoring public confidence in her integrity if she is to maintain her momentum in securing the Democratic nomination. And her problems show up not just in her polls. They have encouraged other Democrats to challenge her for the nomination. The latest Democrat to enter the race is Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican and Rhode Island Governor and Senator, who launched his campaign yesterday. Although Chafee may have to abandon his idea to switch America to metric measurements, his targeted attacks, reminiscent of Barack Obama's in 2008, on Clinton’s hawkish foreign policy record - in particular her 2002 vote to authorize the war in Iraq - could jeopardize her stranglehold on the nomination, since most Democrats still strongly oppose the Iraq war and President G.W. Bush for starting it. Chafee also opposes Hillary’s cozy relationship with Wall Street, as does Independent Senator Bernie Sanders, a fiery orator who identifies himself as a socialist. Sanders has been attracting some of the largest crowds of any candidate from either party as he summons supporters to join his “political revolution.” A growing number of liberal activists see Sanders as the answer. Noisy crowds have greeted his road show in the two weeks since he launched his campaign, surprising even his longtime advisors. With his Brooklyn-accented jabs at 'the alarming power of corporate America,' Sanders sees his path to defeating Clinton. While Clinton is flanked by aides and Secret Service agents at controlled events, Sanders revels in boisterous town hall meetings where he wanders through the crowds wearing a rumpled suit and with wispy white hair. Sanders political consultant Tad Devine says : “I don’t want to get too socialist about it, but I’d describe it as communal." Devine has instructed his inner circle to concentrate on the economy rather than Clinton’s Iraq vote, even though that is one front where their records differ. Sanders may be too old at 73. But, former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley could be dangerous, making his campaign a clear generational issue : His campaign slogan is “New Leadership.” O’Malley, 52, is offering himself as a youthful alternative to Clinton, taking positions that could make him acceptable to all factions of the party as he rails against “the privileged and the powerful.” O’Malley is targeting those who tried unsuccessfully to draft Senator Elizabeth Warren to run. A super PAC supporting O’Malley said Wednesday that it will soon purchase a round of television ads in Iowa highlighting his willingness to battle Wall Street. “There is a real hunger for economic populism. O’Malley is speaking to that,” said George Appleby, O’Malley’s state chairman in Iowa. Sanders, like O'Malley, is courting Elizabeth Warren's supporters, and while Warren continues to say she is not a candidate, that could change, especially if Sanders' far left positioning begins to resonate in the polls. And, of course, there is Vice President Biden, who has not formally ruled himself out a candidacy. Still, Clinton is trouncing the rest of the Democratic field -- in money raised and in the depth of her organization. Her campaign has nine field offices in Iowa, the state with the first presidential caucuses. And, this week’s Post-ABC poll showed Clinton leading the Democratic pack at 62%. Vice President Biden polled at 14% against Hillary, followed by Sanders at 10%. Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta said in an interview Wednesday : “There were always going to be people saying she wasn’t this enough, wasn’t that enough, wasn’t populist enough. Our strategy at the moment is to welcome them into the race and lay out our program versus theirs....There will be debates. These candidates will get their airtime." ~~~~~ Dear readers, for the first time, it is beginning to look as if Hillary Clinton will have to earn the Democratic presidential nomination -- instead of being anointed. This makes Hillary's perceived untrustworthiness and her role in the Benghazi tragedy -- whose investigation has become appropriate to a majority of Americans -- all the more important as key negatives Mrs. Clinton must overcome if she is to be nominated by the Democrats, who are finally beginning to have a say in choosing their 2016 standardbearer. And rightly so.