Polls Show GOP Senate Likely, But Don't Be Complacent - Use These Talking Points

A new Politico poll of US House and Senate districts found a strong majority - 64% - of likely voters says the US is "out of control right now" when asked how they feel about their country. In comparison, only 36% of respondents in the survey agreed with the statement : "I'm confident that the US is in a good position to meet its economic and national security challenges." Multiple challenges were cited by Politico poll respondents -- the economy, ISIS, Ebola and national security. ~~~~~ These concerns are generally like those found in the new Associated Press-GfK poll of likely midterm election voters. But in the AP-GfK poll, most Americans also say they dislike both the Republicans and the Democrats, but more of them now say they would like the GOP to control Congress than they would the Democrats. This is partly because, on major issues including the economy and protecting the country, Republicans have gained an edge as the party more trusted among likely voters. There are four issues that are shaping the contests in the November 4 midterm elections. ~~~~~ THE ECONOMY. Most Americans continue to be deeply concerned about the direction of the economy, and the GOP is in a position to take advantage of that concern -- 61% of Americans describe the economy as poor, while only 38% say that it is good. Nine in 10 likely voters call the economy an extremely or very important issue, topping all other issues tested in the poll by more than 10 percentage points. Among those most likely to cast a ballot in November, Republicans have the edge, 39% to 31% over Democrats. The Republican advantage on the economy is more pronounced among men (14 points) than among women (3 points). ~~~~~ TERRORISM AND ISIS. Fears of terrorism, as well as the threat posed by ISIS in Iraq and Syria, also continue to be top issues for Americans, and Republicans have an edge on handling both issues. Likely voters trust Republicans by a large margin over Democrats to protect the country, 42% to 20%, and on handling international crises, 35% to 25%. Republicans also hold a lead on handling the US image abroad, 33% to 27% for Democrats. The percentage of likely voters saying the threat posed by ISIS is an extremely or very important issue fell 6 points but is still high at 73%, while the share calling terrorism (76%) or the US role in world affairs (66%) important issues held steady. ~~~~~ EBOLA. Ebola is on voters' minds as Election Day approaches, with 74% saying it is a very or extremely important issue. And likely voters aren't happy with the administration's response, as 56% say they disapprove of Obama's handling of the US response to the Ebola outbreak. But they are almost equally split over which party will take advantage of Ebola fears on November 4. More than half of likely voters say either that they trust both parties equally (29%) or that they trust neither party (24%) to address public health issues like Ebola. Respondents who do have a favored party on the issue are about evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, 25% to 22%. Among those likely voters who call the issue "extremely important," Republicans do have an edge, 31% to 19%, yet 49% decline to choose one party over the other. If we zoom out to look at the AP-GfK overall poll results on Ebola, just 20% of Americans approve of the CDC's work on Ebola so far, and only 30% say they trust that public health officials are sharing complete and accurate information about the virus. Only 18% have deep confidence that local hospitals could safely treat a patient with Ebola. Nine out of 10 also think it's necessary to tighten screening of people entering the US from the outbreak zone, including 69% who say that it is definitely needed. Another 29% say it's probably necessary to do so. More than 80% favor sending medical aid to the African countries most hit by Ebola and increasing government funding to develop vaccines and treatments. ~~~~~ THE NOVEMBER 4 ELECTION. Most likely voters now say they think the Republican Party will capture control of Congress, putting the voting public largely in line with the most prominent election forecasters. Combining a question about which party voters think will win the Senate witha question on who they think will win the House, half of likely voters (50%) predict the Republicans will both capture the Senate and retain the House, while 22% think things will stay just as they are. ~~~~~ Larry Sabato, at the prestigious Center for Politics think tank at the University of Virginia, has published his latest midterm election analysis. It shows at least 213 House seats leaning Republican and 189 leaning Democrat, with 15 toss-ups. Sabato predicts that the GOP will win all 213 of their current seats and most of the toss-ups, thus widening their House majority. Sabato says the Senate outcome will be much closer. He sees the Republicans winning 49 Senate seats and the Democrats 47, with 4 toss-ups. Sabato sees the GOP winning two of the toss-ups, which would give the Republcans a Senate majority with 51 seats -- not veto proof but sufficient to stop Obama and the current Democrat Senate majority from packing lower federal courts with liberal judges who have often ruled in favor of same-sex marriage and against voter ID cards. ~~~~~ Dear readers, this is good news for Republicans and GOP-leaning Independent voters. But, this should not make you relax. Winning on Novembet 4 will require working right up to election day --- Reminding family and friends to vote. Offering rides to the polls. Calmly discussing with undecided voters the advantages of voting for Republicans. Here are our talking points. *Getting Americans back to work. *Lowering the tax burden and revising the tax code to make it understandable and fair. *Controlling the federal budget and the national debt. *Improving national security, with a real plan for dealing with ISIS. *Halting the bleeding of the military's budget. *Controlling America's exposure to Ebola. *Repealing and replacing Obamacare. *Getting the Canadian-American oil pipeline project underway. *Returning America to constitutional government. All these major agenda items can be started in January with a Republican Congress. And in 2016, with the addition of a Republican President, America can fully return to its rightful place as the world's economic., technological and democratic leader.