The Real Loser on Hong Kong Could Be Chinese President Xi Jinping

Pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong have renewed their demand that Hong Kong's top leader meet with them, threatening wider actions if he does not, after Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying's complete rejection of the student political demands, as well as his refusal to resign. The standoff has reduced hopes for a quick resolution of the protest. Leung said today that China would not budge in its decision to limit voting reforms in Hong Kong, an important Asian financial center. Leung's statement drew a defiant response from the students, who believe that his refusal to open a dialogue will lead inevitably to more people coming out onto the streets. ~~~~~ What do the protesters want, exactly? They want the reversal of an August decision by mainland China's government that a pro-Beijing panel will screen all candidates in the territory's first direct elections, scheduled for 2017 -- a move they view as reneging on a promise that the Hong Kong chief executive will be chosen through "universal suffrage." Leung was not democratically elected by universal suffrage and he is viewed by the protesters, and many other Hong Kongers, as a Beijing puppet. Some say the young protesters are emboldened by the knowledge that Hong Kong's free press and social media will help protect them from a Chinese crackdown, similar to that which the new Chinese president Xi Jinping has used on protesting minorities and dissidents on the mainland, where public dissent is often harshly punished. Xi Jinping vowed in a speech today to celebrate Chinese National Day that he will "steadfastly safeguard" Hong Kong's prosperity and stability. He said Beijing believes Hong Kong will "create an even better future in the big family of the motherland." He also said that he has confidence in Hong Kong's semi-autonomous government to handle the crisis. Hong Kong was given to Great Britain by China in 1842. Under a 1984 agreement with the British, Hong Kong was ceded back to China in 1997. Under the agreement and Hong Kong charter, China promised to allow universal suffrage in Hong Kong, in a "one country, two systems" arrangement that gives Hong Kong universal suffrage and wide democratic civil liberties, not available to mainland Chinese, until 2047 when Hong Kong is scheduled to be absorbed into the mainland China Communist political system.~~~~~ Many of the protesters are students born after the 1984 agreement with Britain that set in motion the return of Hong Kong and its 7 million citizens to China. They have grown up in an era of affluence and stability, with no experience of past political turmoil in mainland China. ~~~~~ "The people on the streets are here because we've made the decision ourselves and we will only leave when we have achieved something," Chloe Cheung, a 20-year-old student at the Hong Kong Institute of Education, told AP. "We are waiting for the government to respond to our demands for democracy and a say in what the elections will be like." But, Alex Chow, secretary general of the Hong Kong Federation of Students, the organizer of the university class boycotts that led to the street protests, says the students are considering the best way forward, including a possible widening of the street protests, calling for a labor strike and occupying a government building. Despite the hardening rhetoric from both sides, the mood on the streets today was described by CNN as light, with both protesters and police seeming to believe that there will be no confrontations. Few police were in evidence, and those who were appeared relaxed, continuing the light-handed approach they adopted after their use of tear gas and pepper spray over the weekend failed to end the protests. The crowds are now blocking the financial district and other areas. The protest has been called "The Umbrella Protest" because of umbrellas opened to protect protesters from tear gas. Rain capes have also been stockpiled as a defense in case police use pepper spray again. A student interviewed by AP said : "We are not afraid of tear gas, we are not afraid of pepper spray. We will not leave until Leung Chun-ying resigns. We will not give up, we will persevere until the end." Many bus routes have been canceled and some subway entrances near protest areas are closed, and police and fire departments are calling for protesters to clear the streets. But, the inconveniences caused by the protests have not alienated most Hong Kongers, who support the demands for democratic government in Hong Kong. They see the protesters' calls for control of their own future as a possible solution to the widening gap between the city's ultra-wealthy and the rest of the population. "I plan to stay in the protests as long as they remain peaceful," said Peter Chin, a 22-year-old student at Hong Kong University. "Basically, we just want to talk with them, but they are not willing. So we will stay here until they're ready to consult with us," he said. ~~~~~ Dear readers, Leung's total rejection of the student demands is not surprising. China's Communist leadership is eager to avoid any conciliatory moves that might embolden dissidents and separatists on the mainland, where agitation against the Communist Party's tight control, coupled with a Xi Jinping ongoing two-year-old purge of successful business and political leaders, is a potentially explosive mix. Xi Jinping's ferocious anti-corruption campaign has surely made many powerful enemies among the Party elite who feel that their networks, families and fortunes are in danger. Some senior level Party leaders may even be quietly supporting the protesters, not for democratic reasons but because they would like to see Xi Jinping's power reduced. Added to this top level Party struggle is the unrest in China caused by protesters of every minority from Moslems in the northwest to Tibetan buddhists. So Beijing is afraid to allow the mainland Chinese to see images of civil disobedience in Hong Kong and CNN reports that the popular image-sharing site Instagram has been blocked, joining the long blacklist that includes Twitter, YouTube, Facebook and Google. All this fits into Beijing's model for dealing with unrest. The beleaguered Hong Kong chief executive Leung will be left to solve the problem alone. If he succeeds, his Party bosses may go easy in him. But for now, Leung is most likely trying to stamp out Hong Kong’s protests without help from Beijing. Hong Kong is China’s leading financial center, making it so important that few Party leaders would want to advise Leung or take charge of a situation that is for the present unmanageable and would give China a black eye in much of the world if heavy-handed tactics were to be used. The only person in the Party who could make decisions on Hong Kong's fate is Xi Jinping himself, but even he will undoubtedly try to stay aloof, because a failure could call into question his leadership. The result is that Leung has probably been told by Party bureaucrats to solve the problem -- however he can, by discussion or repression. And if Leung fails, or uses methods too violent for Beijing to ignore, then he will be sacrificed. But, all the while, it is Xi Jinping himself who is on trial. He is already vulnerable -- he is relatively new on the job, he has destabilized and frightened the Party leadership and he has a high profile crisis on his hands. It is not impossible that Xi Jinping will be the real loser in Hong Kong.