If Obama Takes on ISIS, He Will Have Help

The Obama administration is undecided about the size and immediacy of the threat to Americans by the extremist group ISIS, so it is not surprising that the President has not decided how to handle it. According to The Hill, the White House believes there is a meaningful difference between the threat of a terrorist attack on American soil, which the administration feels is unlikely, and an attack on US personnel in Iraq, which the administration says is a clear and present danger. President Obama has not authorized airstrikes on ISIS in eastern Syria, where they are based, to match the continuing attacks on ISIS in northern Iraq. Airstrikes in Syria would mark a major escalation in US military action in the region, but would also give aid to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the same time the United States would like to see him removed from power. Last year, Obama received permission from Congress to bomb al-Assad's forces as they fought back against rebel fighters. He never used it. But Obama will face tough questions when he asks congressional backing for airstrikes on the ISIS sunni militants in Syria, The Hill says. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, who's close to Obama, issued a convoluted statement on Monday : "I do not believe that our expanded military operations against [ISIS] are covered under existing authorizations from Congress." But Kaine added that he was "encouraged by reports that indicate administration officials have signaled that seeking congressional authorization for US military action against [ISIS] is being considered." White House press secretary Josh Earnest added to the difficulties Obama faces by saying that the President believes "military might is not the only tool in the tool box here." Earnest was asked whether Obama agreed with Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's statement last week that ISIS is "an imminent threat to every interest we have" and "beyond anything that we've seen." Earnest responded, "What is true is that there is a serious threat that's posed by" ISIS. And when he was pressed on whether there was "an imminent threat to America," he replied, "Well, it certainly is an imminent … [threat to] American interests." ~~~~~ While many in Congress are demanding a strong response to ISIS’ brutal beheading of American journalist James Foley, when lawmakers return from a five-week recess after Labor Day, they will have to decide just how much authority to grant Obama and how to pay for the expanded operations, estimated to be in the $15 billion range, still a guess because the White House and Pentagon are still considering major options. The new administration request is thought to include asking for authorization from Congress for escalated military action against the sunni Moslem terror group “across Iraq and Syria,” the Washington Post reported over the weekend, and will include options ranging from beefing up the training and equipping of allied government forces and rebels, to extending a limited air campaign in northern Iraq to parts of Syria. The overall goal appears to be driving ISIS out of Iraq and containing the group in its Syrian stronghold. “Rooting out a cancer like [ISIS] won’t be easy and it won’t be quick,” President Obama told the American Legion National Convention on Tuesday, as reported by NBC News and others. Obama said : “But tyrants and murderers before them should recognize that kind of hateful vision ultimately is no match for the strength and hopes of people who stand together.” Congress is still on vacation, and there’s no way of accurately gauging what support the President can expect from rank-and-file Republicans for the $15 billion, which would be on top of the administration’s defense budget request for fiscal 2015, which begins October 1, including $496 billion for personnel and general DOD operating costs, as well as $58 billion for “Overseas Contingency Operations,” which covers the actual cost of wars. House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, both Republicans, have urged the President to prepare a tough, comprehensive plan to combat or defeat ISIS. Even before Foley’s murder last week, 54% of Americans said they supported the current limited US airstrikes against ISIS, while 39% opposed them, according to a poll by The Washington Post-ABC News. But, despite the position of defense hawks like Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, rank-and-file lawmakers and members of appropriations committees may be more careful about granting the President expanded war powers and additional funding. ~~~~~ Whether to take military action against Syria now is a decision much like the decision point when Obama drew the famous red line over al-Assad's use of chemical weapons but said he’d only step across if Congress agreed -- the same dramatic escalation in the violence of operations tactics and a President Obama whose political instincts are not to engage the US in the Middle East. But, White House press secretary Josh Earnest says, “The situation a year later is markedly different.” Perhaps it is. Now, the question is whether the US should expand into Syria its Iraq operations against ISIS, which Pentagon and other leaders warn is a growing threat to the US. Military surveillance flights over Syria have begun, enabling commanders to get a real-time picture of what’s happening on the ground and select potential targets. There are congressional complaints that Obama has done nothing to sell his plan to Congress or even to some of his own allies. The worry is that he will put in a bland and indecisive effort in the attemot to please himself and his national security advisors. ~~~~~ But, now there is another compelling factor. There are at least two Americans being held by ISIS or other jihadist groups in Syria. In the video showing the beheading of James Foley, another writer, Steven Sotloff, was seen alive but threatened. There is also a young woman being held in Syria, and ISIS is demanding $6.6 million for her release, and, in addition, the US release of Aafia Siddiqui, an MIT-trained neuroscientist who was convicted by the US in 2010 of trying to kill US officials. This must weigh on any Obama decision, because however he comes down on entering Syria, the lives of American hostages are in play. ~~~~~ Dear readers, as we saw in yesterday's blog, Obama cannot operate independently in the Middle East. Qatar is trying to help America. The Kurds are trying to help. Iraq is trying to help. Turkey and Egypt and Saudi Arabia are trying to help. Israel is trying to help. Britain and France are trying to help. One is even tempted to say that Syria's al-Assad is trying to help. What is required now is that President Obama step up and take the proffered hands. If politics makes strange bedfellows -- then politics and war in the Middle East make for absolutely bizarre bedfellows. Take the step, Mr. President. Engage and trust that a strong and committed America can lead these various conflicting and converging regional interests to a better place. If you have any remaining hope of a place in history, it lies in the Middle East.