All Polls Point to a Republican Sweep of the House and Senate in November

Slightly more Americans identify themselves politically as Democrats than as Republicans. But the large and growing dissatisfaction of voters with President Barack Obama - his mismanagement of the economy, foreign relations and other factors - has made a majority of both Democrats and Republicans reject both his leadership and the Democratic Party he leads. And it presages a tough November mid-term election for Democrats this year, a new Gallup Poll concludes. According to the poll, released Thursday, 42% of Americans say they are Democrats or are Democratic-leaning independents, and 40% say they are Republicans or GOP-leaning. When Gallup compared these percentages to historical patterns, the numbers are very similar to those Gallup found at the same point during similar midterm years of 1994, 2002, and 2010 - mid-term elections that went strongly Republican at the polls. Gallup then paired the current results with a June Gallup Poll that revealed that just 25% of Americans are satisfied with the direction in which the country is heading, and showing that Obama's popularity is at the same low point, around 40%, as in 2010 when the GOP took the majority of House seats in that mid-term election and Democrats lost more than 60 House seats. Gallup noted that the indicators will not likely change by November, so the Democratic Party will have to "match or exceed Republican turnout this fall if they hope to keep control of the Senate and minimize the size of the Republican majority in the House." But, Gallup also pointed out that more Republicans tend to vote than Democrats in midterm elections, and this advantage "leaves the Democratic Party politically vulnerable in midterm election years when they do not have a significant cushion in partisanship," said Gallup. In fact, in years like this one, Gallup said that even though there are slightly more Democrats, Republican turnout advantages have led to GOP victories for House seats in 1994, 2002, and 2010. And, since Republicans already control the House of Representatives, the GOP is more likely to make its big gains in the Senate, replacing many incumbents who were elected in 2008. ~~~~~ Meanwhile, the Democrat-leaning New York Times, which conducts a daily computerized analysis of the upcoming election, is still declaring the November election to be "essentially the same as a coin flip." The newspaper ranks six Democratic incumbents in the most danger of losing their seats to Republicans : John Walsh of Montana, with a 96% likelihood; Mark Pryor, Arkansas, 74%; Mary Landrieu, Louisiana, 60%; Mark Udall, Colorado, 40%; Kay Hagan, North Carolina, 39%; and Mark Begich, Alaska, at 38%. Republicans only need to take six currently Democrat Senate seats to win back the Senate. The Republican National Committee says that the most likely seats to be taken are in West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota, described as "solidly red states." Other key target states are Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Alaska, where Democratic incumbents are seeking re-election in red states. ~~~~~ The bad election news falls heavily on the Democratic Party's congressional leaders -- Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader, and Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader. An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll conducted July 28-31 shows that more registered voters want a Republican majority in both the House and Senate. Respondents were first asked if they thought Congress had been very productive, somewhat productive, somewhat unproductive or very unproductive. 50% of registered voters said they thought Congress had been very unproductive, with only 3% saying Congress had been very productive. Even though the 50% who think Congress was very unproductive are in part talking about the Republican House, they don’t want the GOP House majority to change. When asked if they would like to see the majority in the House stay Republican, or become Democrat. 43% of registered voters answered that they wanted Republicans in the majority and 41% wanted Democrats in the majority, with 16% unsure. The Senate showed similar results. Respondents were asked if they want the Senate to stay Democrat, or become majority Republican. As with the House, 43% of registered voters wanted Republicans in the majority and 41% wanted Democrats in the majority, with 15% unsure. Interestingly enough, 26% of registered voters in the poll identified themselves as soft Democrats and 19% identified themselves as strong Democrats, topping the 18% who identified themselves as strong Republicans. Soft Republicans made up 24%. ~~~~~ In addition, an NPR poll in mid-June showed that President Obama’s approval ratings are lower than the national average in key battleground states for the Senate. 38% of likely voters in 12 states with competitive Senate races approve of Obama, which is four points lower than the national average. These voters also strongly disapprove of how Democrats are running the Senate, with 45% strongly disapproving and 18% somewhat disapproving. Registered voters in the NBC poll want to see a Republican House and Senate, even though a plurality polled identified themselves as Democrat. ~~~~~ Dear readers, recently, Democrats in both the House and Senate have been focusing fundraising and campaigning efforts on a platform of impeachment. The Democratic Congressiona Campaign Committee has so far raised $2.1 million on this point alone, according to the Washington Post. But, the Democrats are deliberately trying to confuse donors and voters -- they say that the lawsuit approved by the House is the beginning of Obama's impeachment. This is a lie. The lawsuit has nothing to do with impeachment. The lawsuit is an effort to force the President to obey the Constitution instead of ignoring it by amending Obamacare and other laws without getting the constitutionally required approval of Congress. That is the lawsuit, plain and simple. It will not lead to impeachment. Do not be misled by Democrats who are lying to you in a desperate affort to save their own congressional seats in November.