The Iraq Crisis Offers the Possibility of a Major New Middle East Alliance

While President Obama continues to say that there will be no US boots on the ground in Iraq, reality seems to be telling a different story. US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, following the lead of his boss President Obama, said Thursday that none of the US troops who recently arrived in Iraq will take part in battles, though they will be able to defend themselves. "None will perform combat missions," he said. Army General Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters Thursday that insurgents in Iraq appear to be stretched, having difficulty with supplies and in consolidating the gains they have made, while Iraq's security forces are "stiffening." General Dempsey denied that rhere is "mission creep" deawing US forces deeper into the conflict. General Dempsey explained that there are US assessment teams reviewing whether military actions against the insurgents would be possible - they will recommend kinds of assistance that the Pentagon can provide, a concept he referred to as "mission match." He added that US forces do not intend to coordinate their actions with Iranian forces. And as has been the advice of Mr. Obama from the beginning of the Iraq crisis, any aid from US forces depends on the Iraqi government developing a government that includes sunnis, Kurds and shiites, according to Dempsey. He also said that the collapse of the Iraqi troops trained by the Pentagon was not due to the might of the Iraqi rebel group called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). They didn't fight because they don't feel allegiance to the Iraqi government. ~~~~~ At the same time that General Dempsey and Secretary Hagel defend the Obama "no boots in the ground" position, there are a lot of Pentagon troops, warplanes and ships in the Middle East that could respond to the crisis in Iraq, although a near-future response would probably be limited, but with a punch, according to analysts and Defense officials. As of late Tuesday, there were 650 US troops in Iraq - 470 of them to protect American personnel and installations, including the Baghdad embassy compound and the Baghdad airport. The remainder are there to assess the security situation in Iraq and assist Iraqi forces in dealing with the threat from Islamic extremists who have captured key cities. "Clearly, they're posing a threat to Baghdad," said Pentagon press secretary. Rear Admiral John Kirby. The Pentagon also has dispatched Apache attack helicopters and surveillance aircraft to the airport, Kirby said. Those forces are minimal compared to the troops and weaponry the US military deployed to Iraq in 2007 and 2008, when more than 150,000 soldiers and Marines fought in the surge. The Army currently has a brigade, about 3,500 soldiers, in neighboring Kuwait, along with the brigade's support soldiers. During the troop surge in Iraq in 2007, there were 20 brigades. But, it is unlikely that the current one brigade would deploy as one unit. Moee likely, according to experts, in teams of 10 to 20, they could advise and fortify Iraqi army units. Advisory teams and special operations forces, along with troops who could call in airstrikes, could have an effect greater than the limited American involvement in Afghanistan in 2001 that toppled the Taliban government. But to have a lasting effect, however, a new consensus Iraqi government includong sunnis would be needed. ~~~~~ In the Middle East, the US currently has approximately 35,00 troops deployed, in data provided by the Defense Department, including an Army brigade and support troops in Kuwait. In Jordan there is a detachment of F-16s, a Patriot anti-missile battery and a headquarters group. There are about 90 Air Force fighters, bombers or other strike aircraft based in the region, including MQ-9 Reaper drones. There are about 190 other aircraft supporting intelligence and surveillance efforts, including MQ-1 Predators, command-and-control planes, tankers or cargo planes. In addition, there are also 50 US Navy ships in the region, from an aircraft carrier with warplanes, to guided missile destroyers and cruisers, to troop carriers. ~~~~~ Ane we know that Iraqi Preme Minister Noor al-Maliki, a shiite fighting to maintain control of Iraq, has called on help from shiite leader Iran, which now does have boots on the ground in Iraq. Al-Maliki is also buying planes from Russia. If this sounds vaguely familiar, it has been the exact strategy of Bashar al-Assad in Syria - use Russia as an international buffer and arms supplier, while depending on Iran for military, financial and religious support. ~~~~~ And today we have news from the al-Arabiya TV outlet owned by the Saudi government, that Saudi Arabia has deployed 30,000 soldiers to its border with Iraq after Iraqi soldiers abandoned the area. Baghdad denied this and said the frontier remained under its full control. The world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia shares an 800-km (500-mile) border with Iraq, where ISIL insurgents and other sunni Moslem militant groups seized towns and cities in a lightning advance last month. King Abdullah has ordered all necessary measures to protect the Kingdom against potential "terrorist threats", state news agency SPA reported on Thursday. US-ally Saudi Arabia overcame its own al-Qaida insurgency almost a decade ago and is wary of any encroaching new threat from radical sunni Islamists. Al-Arabiya said on its website that Saudi troops fanned into the border region after Iraqi government forces abandoned positions, leaving the Saudi frontier unprotected, Reuters reported. ~~~~~ So, dear readers, while ISIL was carving out a swath in the north and sunnis were consolidating to defend their territory in the south, Kurdish forces were strenghtening their presence in a third zone, moving to seize the oil-rich town of Kirkuk with their separate, well-trained army in Kurdistan, an autonomous region in northeastern Iraq. Massoud Barzani, Kurdistan's president, told the BBC he plans to hold an independence referendum within months. And as Saudi troops moved to the Iraqi border, even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu weighed in. Citing the chaos in Iraq, he called for establishing an independent Kurdistan as part of a broader alliance between Israel and moderate countries in the region. We may be ready to ask several key questions -- 1. Is the US trying not only to decide how it can help hold Iraq together but also to determine if al-Maliki has become the face of an Iraqi state aligned with Russia and Iran so that it is, therefore, an unfriendly regime? 2. Are Saudi Arabia and Israel quietly forming the backbone of a military alliance whose goal is to protect not only the Saudi Kingdom and Israel, but to box in Iraq, Syria and Iran so that their expansionist shiite secularism, aided by the jihadist terrorism of ISIL, al-Qaida and their local affiliates, can be supressed, and will Kurdistan protect their northern flank as part of the alliance? 3. Will - and can - the US refuse to join this alliance? My answers - yes, yes, no.