The journalist Arnaud de Borchgrave, who has been covering Europe for Newsweek for more than 30 years and is now director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and editor at large at United Press International, gave an interview to Newsmax, where he is a contributor, about French President Nicolas Sarkozy and how he sees the results of the second round of the French presidential election.
De Borchgrave predicts that President Sarkozy will “squeak through” the upcoming election, remaining in office. The journalist goes on to say that a Sarkozy loss would lead to a decline of the European Union that could render it “irrelevant.” He also said, “If the Socialist wins, the decline of the European Union will continue to the point where it may become irrelevant in the context of geopolitics.”
De Borchgrave also warned that the European Union will “automatically collapse” if the Euro currency doesn’t survive, yet governments will be “automatically overthrown” by the people if they go too far in reducing spending.
When asked if the Euro will survive, de Borchgrave said: “If it doesn’t survive, the European Union automatically collapses, and that’s why I don’t think they’ll let it [the Euro] collapse. Greece may have to drop out….Portugal and Spain as well. But the core of the European Union is bound to remain the core while others may peel off….The future of the European Union is at stake…and nobody wants to see the whole thing collapse.”
Arnaud de Borchgrave is not the only analyst who sees things this way, but most of the others are predicting a win by the Socialist Francois Hollande. Their warning is that after Hollande is elected president of France, his policies will make the European Union much weaker because of his plan to re-enforce the national prerogatives of France and loosen the fiscal controls that are now in place to force austerity on those EU member states whose national debts are far in excess of both their EU Euozone control commitments and their ability to re-pay.
These factors, say the analysts, will ultimately lead to a collapse of the EU as it is now structured and perhaps will end the Euro as a common currency because of the future unsustainable cost of “bailouts” now being shouldered by Germany and France.
These predictions are certainly based on the fact that France is the EU’s second largest economy and without its contribution, Germany would be hard pressed to continue to shoulder the financial load alone, and certainly German voters would be against such a situation.
De Borchgrave also says a major issue in the French election is the war in Afghanistan, which is as unpopular in France as it is in the United States. This has, one might add, already led French President Sarkozy to announce a pullout of French troops in the coming year.
The journalist said, “I think the fact that he [Sarkozy] got France involved in Afghanistan….The Europeans who followed us into Afghanistan after 9/11 figured they were going to be around with us fighting Taliban and the remnants of al-Qaida for six, seven, eight or nine months, but not six, seven, eight or nine years. The involvement in Afghanistan has become more and more unpopular, as it has in our own country. I mean 70 percent of the American people today are against continued involvement in Afghanistan. It’s roughly the same figure all over Europe, and everybody is a little surprised to read in the papers today that we are talking about making a 10-years commitment to Afghanistan, to the non-Taliban government.”
[Note, dear readers, that last week the United States signed an accord with Afghan President Karzai that will serve as the outline for the American withdrawal in 2014, which in reality is almost an open-ended timeline commitment to support Karzai’s government both financially and with troops on the ground.]
Additionally, de Borchgrave reasoned that President Sarkozy narrowly lost the first round of France’s presidential election and will face a runoff because “because people consider him vulgar. He doesn’t quite seem presidential. But he does appeal to the man in the street, and also he is much firmer on immigration than his Socialist challenger.”
Remember, dear readers, that unemployment in France at 10% and many illegal immigrants are holding jobs without work permits and receiving extremely low wages, something that French workers and their unions see as avoidable if the government would enforce the immigration laws already on the books [but the workers and unions being Leftist in the majority of cases are opposed to many of the tactics that would rid France of its unwanted illegals]. If this sounds like the debate going on now in the US over illegal immigrants, it should, because the problems in the two countries are almost interchangeable.
“If Sarkozy wins, things will be roughly on the same level as they are today. I think he is going to win. He is very good at debating. My guess today is that he is going to squeak through.”
I want to add that de Borchgrave’s views are not the majority view in France. I happen to think he is right, and that President Sarkozy will “squeak” through, but nothing is less sure, and French polls are showing that Hollande would win if the election were held today. The French Left seems to be willing to put aside its internal philosophical differences so far, but with almost two weeks to go before the May 6 run-off, a lot can happen to split them along their traditional “Moderate” - “Core” - “Radical / Communist” factions.
Sarkozy has less of a problem in this respect because his Gaullist Right is much better organized and cohesive. His only “swing vote” problem is the 18% who voted for the extreme right candidate, and traditionally, many of these people will either vote for Sarkozy or stay home on May 6.
There will be a presidential debate on May 2, and perhaps some voters will be persuaded by that event.
I think, however, that the French will trust Sarkozy to pull them along through the crisis now enveloping the world, and not look to new and untested leadership in such difficult times.
Good viewpoint.
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