Kofi Annan is trying hard to save the Syrian peace process. He has even tried to invoke the aid of Iran to bring the al-Assad regime to its senses. And, late today, we have heard that al-Assad intends to stop the bombing on Thursday, or perhaps move it away from the present cities toward other targets…the Syria-Turkey border? the Syria-Lebanon border?
One thing is sure. No one believes that Bashar al-Assad will follow through with a full commitment to the ceasefire plan he agreed to with Kofi Annan and the UN.
France, Britain and the United States have already called for tougher sanctions against the regime in light of its refusal to keep its word to the UN.
What will Russia and China do? It is not clear since they both reluctantly agreed to support the Annan plan, but have never agreed to the use of force or coercion against al-Assad. If the UN Security Council debates a package of sanctions, it seems highly likely that Russia and China will again block their passage. And, we will find ourselves back where we started early in 2012…no peace plan…no universally agreed sanctions…no Security Council unanimity…and no way to control the murderous actions of the Syria regime.
British Foreign Minister William Hague said today that it is time to take the Syrian question to the International Criminal Court. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe is asking for more intense measures against the Syrian regime and Susan Rice, US Ambassador to the UN, has called on Russia and China to step up to their responsibilities.
If Russia and China continue to stonewall the UN process, it would be tantamount to admitting that the UN and its Security Council are powerless to prevent the continuing massacre of Syrian civilians by the Syrian armed forces under al-Assad.
Russia, meanwhile, seems to be playing both sides. It has asked the Syrian Foreign Minister to comply more fully with the Annan plan while asking the UN to force the rebels to carry out what would amount to a unilateral ceasefire. That Russia has not convinced al-Assad to comply with the ceasefire suggests that either Russia lacks the influence the world thinks it has with Syria or proves that Russia has not used its influence and is prepared to let the bloodshed go on.
Whatever happens in the next day or so, it is now clear that the al-Assad regime has evaded all attempts to bring it to reason.
The spectacle is not pretty - al-Assad laughing up his blood-soaked sleeve at the United Nations, Russia either impotent or collusive, China unable to decide where it stands, Kofi Annan left with the tatters of a plan he to some extent staked his considerable reputation on, and no one with any idea about how to get international agreement to take a next step.
Checkmate!
...Indeed
ReplyDelete