The French Presidential Election

The first round of the French presidential election was held today. The turnout was 79% nationally.
The Socialist Francois Hollande received 28.6% of the vote and the incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy received 27%. These two candidates will now confront one another in the run-off election on May 6.
This is the first time a Socialist candidate has led after the first round since 1988, when Francois Mitterrand was running for his second term.
But, the real news tonight was the third place finish of Marine Le Pen, the Front National extreme right candidate, who received 18% of the vote. This is the highest result ever for the FN and signals the level of dissatisfaction with the French economy, with the politics-as-usual French system of talking about illegal immigrants but doing next to nothing about the problem, and with the European Union and its austerity and common currency, the Euro.
Le Pen attacked on all these issues and almost 20% of the French who voted today agreed with her.
In the next two weeks, the two candidates will sharpen their programs and their attacks on the other side. But, in the background, there will be a lot of jockeying for the support of the 8 candidates who did not finish in the money today - which amounts to 44% of the vote.
One would assume that Le Pen will tend toward Sarkozy, as will the centrist candidate who got 9%. That leaves 17%, and the extreme left can make up this difference. So, it's going to be a close race on May 6. Here again, the question mark is Le Pen and the FN, whose anti-Gaullist vitriole is always in the shadows and could give votes to the Socialist Hollande.
But, if I had to pick today, I would say that Sarkozy will squeak through. The French are Gaullists at heart and they will tend to vote Sarkozy. The French left is badly splintered and bickers constantly, and we'll see if the thought of winning the presidency can make them unite. Mitterrand is the only Socialist who has ever forced the left to stand together.
It's going to be an interesting race, and we can expect a long night on May 6.