Hillary Clinton keeps saying it : "I am not a candidate for 2012." Meanwhile, 60% of Democratic voters would prefer her over President Obama and an independent committee has been formed to try to corner her into becoming a candidate.
In France, the Prime Minister, François Fillon, is outpolling President Sarkozy for 2012 among conservatives and centrists, by about the same margin as Hillary outpolls Obma in the USA. And guess what? Fillon keeps saying he has great respect for President Sarkozy and will support him if he runs in 2012.
Last night, the American talk show host Jay Leno had former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as a guest and despite all of Leno's efforts, Romney would not say that he is a Republican candidate for the 2012 US presidential election, even though everybody in America knows he's running.
What has Sarkozy said? Only that he will not serve more than two terms, which is like saying nothing really. Obama's comment usually is along the lines of, "We're too busy with other important matters to worry about 2012."
Who has announced? A French Socialist Party member, Segolene Royal, who ran and was defeated by Sarkozy in 2007. She is given next to zero chance of winning, but she's out ahead of the other 10 or so Socialists who would like to have their party's nod. And, oh yes, the Socialist everyone adores this month, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who is now president of the IMF and outpolling Sarkozy as well, is dodging reporters' questions like they were plague carriers.
Why all the feinting and parrying? It seems to be built into all politicians with big ambitions. They might be afraid of peaking too soon, and losing an otherwise winnable race. Or, they may still be putting together the massive funding and campaign team national elections require these days. Or, maybe they know that they have a chance of winning, and like the coy young lady, are playing hard to get to make people want them more.
More likely, they are waiting for the first shoe to fall. Being the first candidate is like arriving at the Prom before the band starts to play. It automatically makes you suspect, and therefore, the butt of jokes and sly remarks about everything you say or do or wear. No politician wants that.
So, we're probably condemned to another 6 to 12 months of denials and non-answers before we get a look at the 2012 presidential election hopefuls in either France or America.
But, my guess is that when the fog clears, Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Obama will be out in front and hard to beat, as incumbents always are. So, the pretenders to the French and American thrones better get their money and team whipped into shape, because it's going to be a rough hill to climb.
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