Russia and NATO : Cold War II Has Started

In early May, General Philip Breedlove, outgoing NATO military chief, announced a return to three US armored brigades in Europe : “...to demonstrate our strong and balanced approach to reassuring our NATO allies and partners in the wake of an aggressive Russia....our allies...will see more capability...a more frequent presence of an armored brigade with more modernized equipment in their countries.” A day earlier, General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cited Russia as a principal persistent security challenge and noted increased Russian conventional and recently matured digital military capabilities -- “new intercontinental ballistic missiles, aircraft, nuclear-powered submarines, tanks, and air defense systems.” The rearmament in Europe reverses a longstanding US defense de-emphasis on a region considered stable after the collapse of the Soviets. It also comes in the twilight of Obama, whose reluctance to deploy ground troops seems no longer to restrict US command planning. ~~~~~ Admiral Mark Ferguson, Commander US Naval Forces Europe, recently told CNN the US has 53 submarines, but that decommissioning and budget decisions will reduce the number to 41 by the late 2020s. Retired Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander, says : "We cannot maintain 100% awareness of Russian sub activity today. Our attack subs are better, but not by much. Russian subs pose an existential threat to US carrier groups." Russia is also expanding other military components. It is adding or upgrading 12 naval bases in the Arctic Circle -- expanding its capability to send multiple subs through the crucial Greenland-Iceland-UK gap into the Atlantic and closer to US and NATO territorial waters. Russia also recently sent six submarines to the Black Sea, for greater Mediterranean reach. Ferguson says the Russian activity appears designed to achieve multiple objectives, including denying NATO and the US the ability to operate within Russia's so-called "near abroad" (eastern Europe, the Baltics, the Black Sea, the Arctic). ~~~~~ US Army General Curtis Scaparrotti has taken over from General Breedlove as commander for US European forces, a role that also makes him the supreme allied commander of NATO's European forces. Scaparrotti is a counter-insurgency Afghanistan veteran, whose latest tour was leading US forces supporting the South Korean military against the North Korea threat. The Pentagon sees Scaparrotti's NATO command as a transition away from organizing the NATO alliance to preparing for and preventing war. A senior defense official noted : "We're moving from assurance to deterrence...from assurance to war-fighting posture." ~~~~~ US European Command assumed greater relevance when Russia began its military and political aggression, leading to the 2014 Crimea annexation and provocative movements between its armed forces and America’s. Just before Scaparrotti took over, a Russian fighter jet did a "barrel roll" over a US reconnaissance plane in the Baltic Sea. A similar incident occurred in mid-April, as well as two encounters earlier in April between Navy destroyer the USS Donald Cook and Russian aircraft. Russia brushed off the incidents. Russian Defense spokesman General Igor Konashenkov said : "Western media's allegations of a 'dangerous' fly-by of a Russian SU-27 jet and an American RC-135 in the Baltics are false." ~~~~~ Dear readers, RT, the Kremlin-sponsored Russian media outlet, says Russia will modernize a missile attack warning station near Crimea’s Sebastopol to counter increasing NATO Black Sea activity. It will detect launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, including hypersonic models, from the Black and Mediterranean Seas, protecting Russia from the south and southeast. Russian Defense also says it has the right to put nuclear weapons in Crimea. And, Russia's military will hold over 2,000 summer armed forces exercises as tensions with NATO continue, while NATO BALTOPS-16 exercises in the Baltic will include 6,000 troops, 45 warships and 60 aircraft. Tomorrow -- where are we headed?

The Black Sea and Eastern Europe - Two Keys to the NATO-Russia Confrontation

International Business Times reported in February that NATO will increase its military presence in eastern Europe to meet Russian 'aggression.' NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on February 10th the increase in military forces will be funded by an increase in US military spending : "I expect the defense ministers to agree to enhance our forward presence in the eastern part of our alliance. This will send a clear signal. NATO will respond as one to any aggression against any ally. We have already significantly enhanced our presence and readiness of our forces." ~~~~~ Since Russia's annexation of Crimea, Europe has worried that Moscow could launch a rapid invasion of Poland or the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), leading NATO to plan to increase defenses on its eastern flank. There will be no stationed standing forces, which would undoubtedly provoke Russian President Putin, despite Poland's demands for permanent NATO bases. NATO defense ministers want a complex web of small outposts, forces on rotation, regular war games and warehoused equipment ready for use by NATO rapid response forces made up of 40,000 air, naval and special operations personnel. ~~~~~ NATO has also reopened dialogue with Russia through the NATO-Russia Council to help avoid surprises and misunderstandings, a senior Nato diplomat told IBT. But, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said NATO's plan is a destabilising factor designed to contain Russia. NATO foreign ministers had suspended "all practical civilian and military cooperation between NATO and Russia" - the Council - in April 2014, after Russia invaded Crimea. ~~~~~ At a May 19 meeting, NATO foreign ministers signed the Montenegro Accession Protocol. Stoltenberg said : “As of today, Montenegro will have a seat at NATO’s table, taking part in all our meetings as an observer." This is the latest NATO move into eastern Europe areas considered by Russia to be off-limits to NATO. ~~~~~ As an example of NATO exercises near Russia's borders, the UK's Telegraph reported that 1,300 US, UK and Georgian troops conducted NATO military exercises in Georgia in early May, despite Russia's Foreign Ministry calling them a provocative step. The exercises, one of the biggest Georgia has ever held in terms of troop numbers and equipment, helped train the former Soviet republic's military for participation in the NATO Response Force. The two-week "Nobel Partner" exercises began at Vaziani military base. Eight M1A2 Abrams tanks were ferried to Georgia from Bulgaria, along with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. At the opening ceremony, US Air Force C-139 transport aircraft air-dropped light armored vehicles and howitzer artillery, as well as 120 US paratroopers, while Georgian forces operated battle tanks and infantry combat vehicles. Georgian Defense Minister Khidasheli warned Russia to respect the choices of independent states. ~~~~~ Russia is sensitive to NATO exercises in Georgia not only because it borders Russia, but also because it is on the Black Sea, which is also bordered by Romania and Bulgaria (both EU member states), Ukraine and Russia, as well as Turkey to the south. Turkey controls access to the Mediterranean by the Russian Black Sea fleet based at Sebastopol. The Black Sea links Russia, Europe and Turkey in both Europe and the Mediterranean. All sides scrutinize its use. ~~~~~ Dear readers, the Guardian reported in March that the Pentagon has decided to restore Obama's troop cuts in Europe to address Russian aggression. Shortly after Obama leaves office in 2017, the US Army presence in Europe is set to return to three armored brigades with associated vehicles and artillery. General Breedlove, the outgoing NATO military chief, announced the additional force as critical to reassuring European allies of the US commitment. From Russian fly-bys and buzzing US naval vessels to the US activation of a ballistic missile defense shield in Europe -- how hot can the NATO - EU - US - Russia confrontation in Europe get? Tomorrow we'll look at who's doing what in Europe.

The Mediterranean : Testing Ground for Russia, the US and NATO

Russia Direct -- an online site of government-funded Russia Beyond the Headlines media -- last week called the Russia-NATO relationship a return to Cold War confrontation. In a May 25 RD interview, Russia's NATO Ambassador Alexander Grushko said the downtrend in relations will continue as long as European security is viewed in Cold War terms. RD outlined recent NATO-Russia meetings -- in April, the first Russia-NATO Council meeting since NATO suspended relations with Russia in 2014 because of the Ukraine crisis; a May discussion of Russia relations at a NATO foreign ministers meeting; and, new moves concerning Russia on the agenda at the July NATO Warsaw summit. RD says while these moves suggest Russia and NATO are seeking common ground concerning European security, policy measures taken by both sides in the past two years have hardened positions, creating an increased risk of military confrontation. Grushko told RD : "The main problem today is not whether meetings take place or not, but that NATO has suspended all cooperation with Russia. We used to work together on a whole range of projects that strengthened in real terms the security of the countries involved. Today we have no positive agenda and I do not see that NATO would be ready to reconsider its current policy." Or Russia, we might add. ~~~~~ At the same time, Russia has spun a PR story about its military expansion. Last week, National Interest -- a Reaganite realist journal founded by Irving Kristol that favors working with Russia when possible -- said Russian military buildup is more hype than reality : "Undoubtedly, the Russian Armed Forces are making progress...due to the increased...state investment in the modernization program; [Defense Minister] Shoigu repeatedly offers this message...Russian analysts and [media] are less inclined to focus on the manifold weaknesses and challenges...and the message from the top brass [to] the Russian media is often simply regurgitated in Western coverage. The results are...dangerous....serving United States generals [are] calling for increased spending or plans to deal with the 'Russian threat,' without sufficient strategic planning." NI says the 'Russian threat' is discussed as "highly advanced forces with assets and approaches to warfare that render the US and NATO vulnerable....Western governments need to avoid overreaction to advances in Russia’s military capability and to assess this process soberly." ~~~~~ NATO commentary doesn't reflect vulnerability. At the May NATO foreign ministers meeting, Secretary General Stoltenberg said they would review NATO relations with Russia and assistance to eastern partners : “Our policy is clear. The two pillars of our engagement with Russia are defense and dialogue. Especially in times of tension, it is important to keep lines of dialogue open, and seek more transparency.” ~~~~~ But, another view is offered by Admiral Mark Ferguson, Commander, US Naval Forces Europe, who told CNN in April that Russia is deploying ballistic missiles and attack submarines in numbers, range and aggression not seen in two decades : “The submarines...are much more stealthy....[with] more advanced weapons systems, missile systems that can attack land at long ranges, and...operating proficiency is getting better as they range farther from home waters." Russia is deploying new submarines harder for US naval forces to track and detect, the result of years and billions invested. But consider this. Russia has 1 aircraft carrier. The US has 10. Russia says it won't take its carrier into the Mediterranean. However, carriers aren't stealthy. ~~~~~ So, dear readers, NATO organized anti-submarine DYNAMIC MANTA-16 exercises for submarines, surface ships and maritime aircraft of France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, Turkey, UK and US. The goal was to enhance naval force fighting skills in multinational and multi-threat environments. But, it was also surely a US signal to Russia to consult before moving cruise missile submarines to the Mediterranean, where Russia is determined to show its power. Tomorrow, Europe.

Libya, Greece, NATO, Russia, the US...the Mediterranean Is a Hotspot

As we remember the sacrifices of our Veterans on Memorial Day, let's consider a current military hotspot. Israel Defense online has quoted US Marine General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff : "We will soon decide whether to deploy American troops in Libya." Dunford told Voice of America that Libya is in a “period of intense dialogue” that could soon lead to an agreement to deploy US military to assist in the fight against ISIS, adding there's interest among NATO nations in joining the mission to train and equip militias loyal to Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj, the leader of the new Libyan Government of National Accord, backed by the UN. Dunford refused to give details about US Special Operations troops deployed to the Libyan cities of Misrata and Benghazi in late 2015, who are assessing who could be partners for US forces. ~~~~~ This news follows the announced completion of the 10th annual Exercise Phoenix Express in Greece, May 17 to 28. The maritime exercise involved navies from Europe, North Africa, and the United States, and was sponsored by US Africa Command and US Naval Forces Europe-Africa/US 6th Fleet. The goal was to "improve regional cooperation, increase maritime domain awareness, information-sharing practices, and operational capabilities to enhance efforts to achieve safety and security in the Mediterranean Sea." The control group was hosted at the NATO Maritime Interdiction Operations Training Center in Souda Bay, Greece, but training took place throughout the Mediterranean. The at-sea exercises tested the forces' abilities to combat illegal migration, illicit trafficking, and movement of materials for weapons of mass destruction. The forces also practiced search-and-rescue procedures for vessels in distress. ~~~~~ And, a British navy warship is poised to enter Libyan waters for the first time to intercept vessels smuggling migrants, as well as arms headed for ISIS terrorists. It has also recently been admitted that the migrants include hidden ISIS jihadists. Libya is expected to formally request vessel interception help from the UK to stem the deepening migrant chaos. Operation Sophia, the EU effort to prevent migrants being smuggled to Europe on the Mediterranean, has seized and destroyed smugglers’ boats, but the mission operates in international - not Libyan - waters. Britain already has four vessels in Operation Sophia and in a joint NATO exercise to monitor waters off Libya. Britain and the US want NATO to do more to help the EU Sophia mission. ~~~~~ The NATO thread in these activities has not gone unnoticed. Russian RT News reported Friday that Greece, Italy and Malta have closed their airspaces to Libyans until September, issuing NOTAMs (notice to airmen). RT said the NOTAMs came amid rumors of a likely NATO operation in Libya. NATO, however, says such rumors are “baseless." An exception to the NOTAMs permits airspace use for authorized military aircraft and emergencies such as medical evacuations, according to a Greek daily that says the NOTAMs were made ahead of the EU and NATO Phoenix Express exercises. But, it has been noted that the NOTAMs continue long after the exercises end. Russia upper parliamentary chamber foreign relations committee chief Konstantin Kosachev has warned any NATO action [in Libya] would cause "chaos," saying NATO should seek UN support. ~~~~~ Dear readers, in April, US President Obama and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg agreed they want to help Libya eliminate ISIS. Several more NATO exercises will take place soon near Greece, which seems set to be key in any possible intervention against ISIS in Libya -- as a staging area, receiving aircraft carrying evacuees, housing VIPs. Israel defense reported Sunday NATO has launched DYNAMIC MANTA 2016 -- anti-submarine warfare exercises in the Mediterranean -- because the US wants to search for Russian submarines carrying cruise missiles under cover of a NATO exercise. Are NATO and the US preparing to deal with both ISIS in Libya, calling it training, and Russia's growing Mediterranean presence? More tomorrow.