Happy Labor Day -- and a Thank You to Donald Trump

It's Labor Day in America, and I haven't had better news for the last holiday of summer since 2008. ~~~~~ Donald Trump, according to a surprising new poll from SurveyUSA, beats Hillary Clinton in a general election, 45% to 40%, with 16% of voters undecided. He wins a big share of the Democrats’ non-white base -- 25% of African Americans, 31% of Hispanics and 41% of the relatively small Asian vote. It is better than Republican presidential candidates do with these important constituencies and that is probably disconcerting news for the GOP establishment who are wary of Trump. But in contrast to the GOP establishment that likes to wring its hands over demographic trends that shrink the GOP voter share, Trump stands by a border wall, some form of repatriation program for millions of undocumented migrant workers, and new curbs on middle-class outsourcing to the roughly 700,000 guest-workers used by Fortune 500 companies. Trump’s labor-supply reform would probably do what he is promising -- create jobs for Americans, raise wages, and lower profits, all of which might somehow boost his support among lower-wage, often-jobless Americans. In 2012, the GOP’s establishment candidate, former Governor Mitt Romney, won only 27% of Hispanics and a mere 6% of blacks, who are hit hardest by the bipartisan support for cheap, government-dependent migrants. Now, Trump must win over the large undecided vote, which the poll says is at 16%. The SurveyUSA  poll of 1,000 Americans, including 900 registered voters, on September 2 and 3, also shows that Trump reverses the long-standing sex-gap to +10% in his favor. That’s the combination of a 15-point advantage among men, and only a 5-point disadvantage among women. In contrast, Romney had a 7-point advantage among men, and a 11-point disadvantage among women, resulting in a - 4-point sex-gap. Clinton wins people younger than age 35 by 19%, but Trump wins the three older demographic groups by roughly 15%. Trump wins four-year college grads by 8%, and people with some college by 13%, leaving Clinton to take the high-school-only voters, 44% to 35%. Trump wins swing-voting moderates, 42% to 38%. Clinton wins the West by a scant 2%, and the Northeast by only 4%, but Trump wins the very important swing-voting Midwest by a huge margin -- 49% to 31%. Trump beats the Democrats’ B-team -- Senator Bernie Sanders by 44% to 40%, Vice President Joe Biden by 44% to 42%, and former Vice President Al Gore by 44% to 41%. And Trump hasn’t spent a penny on campaign advertising so far. ~~~~~ Dear readers, a poll like this will "make my day." Think about the African American and Hispanic poll percentages for Trump. What many of us have long believed is true -- the Republican Party is the natural ally of all Americans who want ethical values, a good education, a fair chance at jobs and homes, and a small government that leaves enough Dollars in their pockets to achieve those goals for themselves and their children. All it takes to bring them home to America is a GOP that sincerely reaches out to them. Thank you, Donald Trump. ~~~ Wishing everyone a Happy Labor Day.

Saturday Politics : Unconventional Outsiders

It's Saturday Politics.~~~~~ Dr. Ben Carson's presidential nomination bid is gaining momentum. The latest indication was Thursday's national Monmouth University poll showing the retired neurosurgeon and tea party favorite in second place nationally with 18% support, behind only Donald Trump, with 30% among Republican primary voters. Carson's numbers jumped 13%, compared to Trump who gained 4%. Earlier in the week, a Monmouth University poll showed Carson tied with Trump in Iowa and also surging among evangelicals, a crucial constituency for any Republican primary candidate in the state. A Des Moines Register poll last weekend also showed Carson gaining on Trump in Iowa. His campaign reported raising a solid $6 million in August, a month when fundraising is slow. Both Trump and Carson appear to be drawing from a pool of disaffected conservatives attracted to their outsider credentials and anti- establishment rhetoric. Each regularly attracts huge crowds that eclipse those of their competitors in the Republican primary field. The danger for Trump is that Carson is emerging as the safe harbor for Trump voters who are uncomfortable with The Donald's excess. Trump prevailed in all hypothetical head-to-head matchups with other GOP candidates in the Monmouth poll, except against Carson, who had 55% support to Trump’s 36%. Carson also had the highest favorability rating among all the GOP candidates in the field, with 67% saying they had a favorable view of him while only 26% said they had an unfavorable view of him. The Monmouth poll reported that the next two GOP candidates were Bush and Rubio at 8%. ~~~~~ Meanwhile, things continue to unravel for Hillary Clinton, who could lose Iowa and New Hampshire if Senator Bernie Sanders continues to attract voters with his freewheeling style and attacks on the Democratic Party status quo and on banking. Mainstream media are focused on Donald Trump, and are downplaying Hillary Clinton’s weakness and declining polls. Her support among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucus-goers has dropped to 37%, down 20% since May according to an August 26 Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll. While Hillary's poll numbers decline, Bernie Sanders is up 16 points to 30%, and Vice President Joe Biden, who isn’t even running - yet, is up six points to 14%. The poll has made Clinton’s supporters worry, and well it should. Some in Hillaryland tried to claim that the survey contained good news, in that her favorable rating among Democratic caucus-goers remained at 77%. But Clinton’s favorable rating combined with rapidly failling support suggests to pollsters that Iowa Democrats are moving to Sanders not because they dislike her but because she doesn't excite them, and they like him more. When asked, only 2% of Sanders’s backers said that their decision to support him was because they don’t support Clinton. Is there a Democrat who -- short of an extraordinary event, such as Clinton’s indictment over mishandling classified information on her private email account -- can beat her? Not former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, or former Virginia Senator Jim Webb, or former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee. And probably not Sanders. After Iowa and New Hamoshiee, the primaries will favor Clinton -- South Carolina and Nevada, followed by Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas are all states that Mrs. Clinton carried in 2008. She will probably do so again, except perhaps in Massachusetts, a next-door neighbor to Sanders’s home state. There are also Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, Vermont and Virginia, states that then-Senator Barack Obama carried in 2008. Vermont will go for its favorite son, but Clinton stands a better chance than Sanders in the others, if she has the backing of black Democratic leaders who voted for Obama seven years ago and who are Bill Clinton fans. And, Clinton is likely to have the cash that Sanders will lack, even if his fundraising gets a boost from early victories. Then, between March 5 and March 15, Clinton will most likely carry Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Sanders could be competitive in parts of Colorado and Minnesota, if his campaign survives that long. But, Sanders’s overriding problem is simply that there aren’t enough left-wing socialist enclaves for him to beat Clinton and capture the nomination. What about Vice President Joe Biden? He would do better in the blue-collar parts of Missouri and Michigan than Sanders, and maybe Clinton, as well. But once the contest runs through the South, Biden would have to pick up a substantial part of the black vote, and he is not likely to generate the level of support that Obama enjoyed in the South in 2008, or the positive push Bill Clinton will give his wife among black southern voters. ~~~~~ Dear readers, perhaps the best bet for either Carson or Sanders is that in this election, the unconventional and the outsider seems to do better than the conventional and expected. Donald Trump has used this to his great advantage, but if he falters, it could well be another unconventional GOP outsider who benefits -- Ben Carson, or Ted Cruz. And if 'GOP America' is in such a mood, perhaps 'Democrat America' is, too -- and if so, it could be the unconventional outsider Bernie Sanders who benefits -- unless a precipitate Clinton fall finally gives Elizabeth Warren the reason she is waiting for to step in.

The Current Migrant Crisis Has Consequences for European Civilization

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been one of the few European leaders to sound a cultural alarm. "For us today, what is at stake is Europe, the lifestyle of European citizens, European values, the survival or disappearance of European nations, and more precisely formulated, their transformation beyond recognition. Today, the question is not merely in what kind of a Europe we would like to live, but whether everything we understand as Europe will exist at all." ~~~~~ Germany and France could easily echo Orbán's cry of concern. Recent violence in France and protest marches in Germany have focused attention on Europe’s Moslem population. In many European countries, including Germany, the UK and the Netherlands, concerns about growing Moslem communities have led to calls for restrictions on immigration. How large is Europe’s Moslem population, and how fast is it growing? The Pew Research Center’s most recent population analysis offers facts about the size and makeup of the Moslem population in Europe : Germany and France have the largest Moslem populations among European Union member countries. As of 2010, there were 4.8 million Moslems in Germany (5.8% of its population) and 4.7 million Moslems in France (7.5%). The Moslem share of Europe’s total population has grown about 1% a decade, from 4% in 1990 to 6% in 2010. This pattern is expected to continue through 2030, when Moslems are projected to make up 8% of Europe’s population. Moslems are younger than other Europeans. The average age of European Moslems was 32, eight years younger than the median for all Europeans (40). The median age of religiously unaffiliated people in Europe, including atheists, agnostics and those with no religion in particular, was 37. The median age of European Christians was 42. ~~~~~ A Pew Research survey conducted last spring found that majorities in France, Britain and Germany had favorable views of Moslems. Opinion was roughly divided in Spain while negative views prevailed in Italy, Greece and Poland. Views about Moslems are tied to ideology. While 47% of Germans on the political right give Moslems an unfavorable rating, just 20% on the left do so. The gap between left and right is also more than 20% in France, Italy and Greece. Significant differences based on ideology also exist in Spain and the UK. As of 2010, the EU was home to about 13 million Moslem immigrants. The foreign-born Moslem population in Germany is primarily Turkish immigrants, but also includes many born in Kosovo, Iraq, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Morocco. The 3 million foreign-born Moslems in France are largely from France’s former North African colonies of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. ~~~~~ Germany is taking in the greatest number of Moslems in 2015 -- many Syrian refugees seeking asylum in the most welcoming EU country. Germany's Moslem population will skyrocket by more than 700,000 in 2015, pushing the total number of Moslems in the country to nearly 6 million for the first time. The surge in Germany's Moslem population represents an unprecenented demographic shift that critics of the country's open-door immigration policy warn will change the face of Germany forever. At a press conference on August 19, German Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière revealed that a record 800,000 migrants and refugees -- the equivalent of nearly 1% of Germany's total population -- are expected to arrive in Germany in 2015, a fourfold increase over 2014. De Maizière said that 83,000 migrants had arrived in July alone, and that the figure for August would be even higher. De Maizière said that although many of the migrants are from the Middle East and North Africa, a large number (40%) are from countries in the Balkans, including Albania and Kosovo. According to de Maizière, this implies that nearly half of those arriving in Germany are economic migrants, not refugees fleeing war zones. Based on Pew projections, the 640,000 Moslem migrants arriving in Germany in 2015, combined with the 77,000 natural increase by births, indicates that the Moslem population of Germany will jump by 717,000, to an estimated 5,785,000 by the end of 2015. This would give Germany the biggest Moslem population in Western Europe. This 2015 surge in Germany's Moslem population would be equivalent to the Moslem population of the United States increasing by 3 million in just one year. ~~~~~ Meanwhile, the numbers arriving in the EU continuing to increase. Only Hungary is trying to apply EU immigration and refugee rules. At a Vienna summit on migration on August 27, the EU Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn said : "There are 20 million refugees waiting at the doorstep of Europe. Ten to 12 million in Syria, 5 million Palestinians, 2 million Ukrainians and about 1 million in the southern Caucasus." On August 21, Germany suspended the Dublin Regulation -- a law that requires people seeking EU refugee status to do so in the first European country they reach -- for asylum seekers from Syria. This means that Syrians reaching Germany will be allowed to stay while their applications are being processed. Critics say the move wil encourage even more migrants to make their way to Germany. ~~~~~ The EU has announced that it will soon help to provide reception facilities for asylum-seekers in Hungary as it is already doing in Italy and Greece. The EU migration commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos told reporters that the EU executive is ready to offer further help to Hungary as it takes in large numbers of people crossing the Balkans to reach the EU and would "if necessary set up a hotspot in Hungary." Hotspots are expected to open in the coming weeks in Greece and Italy, where more than 300,000 people have arrived this year by sea. These EU "hotspots" are funded and staffed in part by immigration officers and experts from other EU nations. Hotspots will serve in part to bolster national efforts to process requests for refugee status. They have also been promoted by Germany, France and other wealthier states to help ensure their southern neighbors register and fingerprint those arriving, rather than allowing them to head north unregistered. The Hungarian government has complained that the EU plans to relieve pressure on "frontline states," drawn up in May, focused on Italy and Greece. Tens of thousands of people have since arrived in Hungary, many of them coming from Greece. ~~~~~ France has long stonewalled efforts to make the area of Calais near the Eurotunnel tracks that carry Eurostar trains under the Channel to England a formal migrant center. But, it has now announced that it will build a camp for 1,500 migrants in Calais, where twice that many are now living in very unsanitary conditions, hoping to make the Channel crossing to Britain as train stowaways. European Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans visited Calais with French Prime Minister Manuel Valls recently and said the Commission would contribute €5 million to the new center which will house people in large tents. Calais mayor Natacha Bouchart said : "It's a gesture but a pretty feeble gesture, it's €25 million that would be needed." A larger camp in Calais - the notorious Sangatte - was shut down more than a decade ago by former conservative president Nicolas Sarkozy but the city remains one of many migrant "hotspots" across the continent. ~~~~~ Dear readers, today, Hungarian President Orbán said that Europe's Christian roots are in danger and governments must control their borders before they can decide how many asylum seekers they can take. In an opinion piece for Germany's Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung, Orbán said the people of Europe are at odds with the majority of governments on the refugee crisis : "The people want us to master the situation and protect our borders. Only when we have protected our borders can questions be asked about the numbers of people we can take in, or whether there should be quotas. We have the right to decide that we do not want a large number of Moslem people in our country. We do not like the consequences of having a large number of Moslem communities that we see in other countries and I do not see any reason for anyone else to force us to create ways of living together in Hungary that we do not want to see. That is a historical experience for us." Hungary, Poland, Austria and Slovakia leaders will meet today to try to agree on a central European migrant plan. What is clear is that the influx of Moslems into Europe is beginning to have visible consequences -- mosques with loud prayer calls, sharia law "no go" enclaves, aggressive demands for general recognition of sharia, and the arrival of extreme imams to teach jihad to Moslem boys and recruit young men for ISIS. The democratic Christian roots of Europe are threatened. The danger is that Christian ethics makes Europeans welcome Moslem migrants without considering the unintended consequences for Europezn Christian civilization.

The Iran Deal : Fighting Back against Evil

"Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph." (Haile Selassie) ~~~~~ On Wednesday, President Obama secured the 34th Senate vote needed to sustain a veto of any congressional resolution disapproving a nuclear deal with Iran, ensuring the accord will not fail in the US Congress. Secretary of State John Kerry gave a speech strongly defending the deal in Philadelphia on Wednesday, arguing that its benefits outweigh any drawbacks, and repeating again that the deal is not based on trust but on verification. Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski announced her support, becoming the vital 32nd Senate Democrat, along with two independents, to back the pact announced on July 14, which exchanges sanctions relief for Iran for Teheran's agreeing to curtail its nuclear program. The move, if it holds up, means that Obama's Democrat minority in Congress will have enough votes to protect the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 world powers. The next goal for Obama and the Democratic Party is to put together at least 41 votes in the Senate so that they can use the filibuster procedural rule to block the first-round disapproval resolution in the Senate and keep Obama from having to use his veto. In providing the last critical vote for the Iran deal, Mikulski said in a written statement : "No deal is perfect, especially one negotiated with the Iranian regime. I have concluded that this Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is the best option available to block Iran from having a nuclear bomb. For these reasons, I will vote in favor of this deal." US lawmakers, who will take up the resolution when they return from their summer vacations on September 8, have until September 17 to vote on a "resolution of disapproval," which would weaken the international pact by eliminating Obama's ability to temporarily waive many US sanctions on Iran. ~~~~~ With Republicans united in opposition to the deal, Senate whips of both parties agree it is still too early to say whether supporters would be able to secure the next target of 41 votes needed for Obama to win the initial round and save a veto. Republicans hold majorities in both the House and Senate, and are likely to pass a Republican-sponsored disapproval resolution. Opponents would need 2/3 majorities in both chambers -- 34 votes in the Senate and 146 in the House -- to override the Obama presidential veto. Mikulski's support leaves 10 undecided Senate Democrats. Two -- Charles Schumer and Robert Menendez -- have announced that they will oppose the deal. And, at least 93 members of the House, all Democrats, have said they support the bill. Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic Leader, says she expects to have enough support to sustain a veto. ~~~~~ The Iran deal is also being felt in the 2016 US presidential election. The main GOP candidates oppose the deal, although they disagree on tactics for stopping it. While strong GOP majorities in both the Senate and House have already announced that they will oppose the accord, it is possible that one, and possibly two, House Republicans might vote for it. Congressional Republicans appeared unperturbed by the Wednesday White House announcenent, asserting that they still intend to fight the deal. Cory Fritz, a spokesman for the House, said : "Forcing a bad deal, over the objections of the American people and a majority in Congress, is no win for President Obama. The White House may have convinced just enough Democrats to back an agreement that legitimizes Iran’s nuclear program, trusts the regime to self- linspect and offers amnesty to terrorists, but this deal is far from being implemented." Senate Republicans have said they wil pursue additional measures to crack down on Iran even if the deal survives congressional review, including imposing additional sanctions over human rights violations or providing financial support to terrorists. Opponents of the Iran nuclear agreement say that it gives Iran too much sanction relief in exchange for an insufficient program for inspecting Iran's nuclear facilities. They worry that Iran will use an estimated $150 billion sanction "windfall" to finance militant groups that might threaten US allies, including Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a vociferous opponent of the nuclear agreement, and some pro-Israel groups have spent millions of dollars on advertising campaigns urging US lawmakers to oppose it. ~~~~~ Dear readers, there are some things that are simply evil -- with no mitigating factors to excuse them. The true nature of the Iranian regime and the history of its treachery, lies and terrorist activities is publicly available for anyone who chooses to see it. President Obama and Secretary Kerry should be impeached for their willful disregard for the security of the United States and their violation of their sworn duty to protect it. Those congressional Democrats who actually vote to support President Obama must be defeated in 2016 or impeached if their terms extend beyond that election cycle. The congressional Republican leadership must create a plan to prevent implementation of the Iran deal that includes refusal of funding, passing new sanctions, and withholding White House and State Department budget decisions until.all implementation actions are halted. United Nations funding related to the Iran deal's implementation should be withheld. The House should now begin preparing Articles of Impeachment against Obama and Kerry. And a Republican filibuster in the Senate should be considered if keeping a vote from being taken in the 60-day period would make it possible for the Senate to treat the deal independently afterward as an international treaty subject to Senate accord. Congress might also consider reducing funding to any of the P5+1 countries or Security Council members in an amount equivalent to their funding for actions related to the Iranian deal. These proposals may seem severe, but they could be tied to Iran's future full compliance with acts to be outlined by Congress -- release of all foreign prisoners and hostages, total immediate access to all civilian and military nuclear facilities, a complete halt to all foreign terrorist activities and military and financial support for Iranian Middle East terrorist proxy organizations, and an unequivocal recognition of the state of Israel and its right to exist. President Obama and Secretary Kerry should have demanded these Iranian actions in the negotiating process. They chose not to, in defiance of American insistence. Congress should do it for them. Margaret Thatcher explained the battle : "I am in politics because of the conflict between good and evil and I believe that in the end good will triumph." Good will triumph, but only if we work for it, only if we recognize the fundamental truth with Edmund Burke : "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."