The Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East

Two separate but closely related events have been reported in the Middle East today. Hamas and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza and nearby Israeli border towns. And the Syrian rebel coalition has overtaken and sacked a major al-Assad military base near Aleppo. After a nearly two-month siege, Syrian rebels overwhelmed the base of the 46th regiment in the north of the country and made off with tanks, armored vehicles and truckloads of munitions that rebel leaders say will give them a boost in the fight against President al-Assad's army. This is a serious blow to the regime's efforts to roll back rebel gains and shows a rising level of organization among opposition forces. Syria's rebels have gradually been destroying regime checkpoints and taking over towns in the northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo along the Turkish border. Rebel fighters say that weapons seized in such battles have been essential to their transformation from ragtag gangs into forces capable of challenging Assad's professional army. Cross-border arms smuggling from Turkey and Iraq has played a role, although the most common complaint among rebel fighters is that they lack ammunition and heavy weapons, munitions and anti-aircraft weapons to fight Assad's air force. They have repeatedly asked for supplies from the west but few countries have stepped forward. Meanwhile, an Israel - Hamas ceasefire has ended eight days of fierce fighting in Gaza. It includes a halt to air strikes and rocket attacks that have killed more than a hundred people mostly in Gaza, and a promise to discuss easing the Israeli blockade that constricts the Gaza Strip. However, rocket fire continued to hit southern Israel long after the cease-fire deadline had passed, authorities said, and schools in the region planned to stay shut Thursday as a precaution in case rockets continue to be launched. The ceasefire was brokered by Egyptian president Morsi, thus cementing his and Egypt's role as a leader in a Middle East that has dramatically changed following the popular uprisings known as the Arab Spring. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton raced to the region on Tuesday but it was Morsi, on the ground and active all week long, who can take the bows as the negotiator. Under the agreement, Egypt will play a key role in maintaining the peace. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said the deal included an agreement to open all border crossings with the Gaza Strip, including the important Rafah crossing with Egypt. Secretary Clinton stood beside Egyptian foreign minister, Mohammed Kamel Amr, as he, not Clinton, announced the truce that came after days of intense efforts that drew the world's top diplomats to the region. Netanyahu said he agreed to the cease-fire after consulting with President Obama to allow Israeli civilians to get back to their lives. He said the two leaders also agreed to work together against weapon smuggling into Gaza, a statement confirmed by the White House. Netanyahu said that there are some Israelis who would have preferred a greater incursion into Gaza, adding that it may be needed later. "But at this time, the right thing for the state of Israel is to take this opportunity to reach a lasting ceasefire," he said. Hamas officials said details on the new border arrangements would have to be negotiated. Among the current restrictions: a near-complete ban on exports, limited movement of people leaving the territory, and limits on construction materials that Israel says could be used for military use. These types of materials are now smuggled into Gaza in tunnels underneath the border with Egypt. Egypt's new Islamist government is caught in a balancing act between its allegiance to Hamas and its need to maintain good relations with Israel and the U.S. Hamas is an offshoot of Egypt's ruling Muslim Brotherhood. Dear readers, the link between these two events is the absence of a meaningful American presence. We are witnessing the first practical results of the Arab Spring shift in the Middle East balance of power. The conservative, American-backed leaders are gone or going, replaced by Islamists or very uneven coalitions unwilling to take sides overtly in the struggle beyween America and Iran for dominance. The Unites States should be more active in the Middle East, making friends where it can and mending fences with groups such as the Syria coalition that feel abandoned by the west in their struggle for freedom.

Obama Further Weakens America in the Middle East

United States foreign policy under President Obama has been a disappointing series of sound bites spoken to TV cameras while the rest of the world wrestles with grave problems for which America should be providing leadership - Iran, Libya and the rest of the Arab Spring aftermath, Egypt's new Islamist government, Greece, Chinese information technology piracy - and in the past week the Hamas - Israel confrontation in Gaza. Obama has offered no leadership for any of these crises, preferring to fall back on the killing of Osama bin Laden as his only requirement in foreign affairs, without acknowledging that it was largely the plan put in place by President Bush and carried out by the US military that led to OBL's death. But, this week Obama has given a new meaning to leading from behind. He chose to visit Mayanmar-Burma and Cambodia while Israel was being bombarded by Hamas rockets fired from civilian enclaves. His only public comment has been to say it is "preferrable" that things don't escalate, leaving the UN Secretary General and Egyptian president Morsi to try to broker a ceasefire. His phone calls could in no way make up for the complete absence of American diplomacy on the ground. Obama's silence in effect opened the way - rapidly taken - for Hamas partisans to lead the negotiations and for regional Arab leaders to beat a path to Gaza in support of the terrorist Hamas regime. Do not, dear readers, think that this was anything but a fact-based example of Obama's guiding principle - sideline the United States and abandon her leadership role to others. His gambit in East Asia over, he is on his way back to Washington. Before boarding Air Force One he decided to send US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who had been with him in Asia, to Tel-Aviv and, presumably, Egypt and the West Bank to talk with the key players...SEVEN days after the crisis began. In Israel today, Secretary Clinton said the United States is pushing for a "durable outcome" promoting stability following Israel's offensive in the Gaza Strip, with little mention of Hamas'continuing rocket barrage on Israel civilian areas. She said she "RUSHED" to the region, sent by President Obama to help forge a cease-fire, after a week of fighting between Israel and Gaza militants, one that would "recognize the legitimate aspirations of Israelis and Palestinians alike." Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu stood beside her while she read her statement. Netanyahu must have been wondering why his only friend in the conflict had taken so long, rather like a western film where the Cavalry arrives just in time, except that today the Cavalry was only one person who was a week late and a Dollar short, as Americans say of failed efforts. Netanyahu said Israel would welcome a diplomatic solution to the crisis, but threatened further military activity, saying he is ready to take "whatever action" is necessary. Not only has Obama abandoned the Muslim and Arab Middle East to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, he is close to alienating Israel, the only friend America has left in the region. If this is what American foreign policy is meant to be, if this is how America treats her closest friends, then I am lost.

Hamas-Gaza, Israel and Common Sense

The trading of rockets and drone hits continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Israeli border towns. Egypt is trying to broker a halt to the attacks to allow time for talks. UN Secretary General Ban-ki-moon uttered an eternal phrase today while visiting the region : "This must stop." These immortal words were almost equalled by US President Obama's observation yesterday that it would be "preferrable" to resolve the crisis without an escalation. Dear readers, I can only ask on what planet these two men - touted by all as the only possible peace brokers - have been living the past 50 years. What can a reasonable person suggest? (1) Egypt...and Iran if it is really serious about being a member of a peaceful Middle East and world...can enforce a no-rocket supply or shooting policy for Hamas, to include closing all Egypt tunnels into Gaza. (2). The US can enforce a simultaneous Israeli no-attack policy for Israel. (3). The US and Egypt can then convene the parties for serious...do not leave the room until agreement is reached...negotiations for a ceasefire. (4) Gaza-Hamas will recognize Israel. (5). Israel will open Gaza with appropriate but not draconian border controls. (6). Israel and the regional Muslim states will create and support an economic development program for Gaza. (7). The UN will supervise free elections in Gaza...because it just may be possible that after 7 years of Hamas, the people of the Gaza Strip, who elected them, may want to try other leaders who come without terrorist intentions toward Israel that cause their families to be bombed as unintentional collateral damage in the unannounced war Hamas and Iran are now waging against Israel.

France Leads in Recognizing the Syrian Coalition

The rest of the world usually sees France as a country obsessed with fine wines and excellent food...and Parisian haute couture...but France is founded on something much more profoundly human. Liberty. Equality. Fraternity. The French soul resonates with these principles that define her culture and her passion for human rights. This week a Socialist French President has again proved just how important these qualities are for France. In a bold move to confer legitimacy on the week-old Syrian opposition coalition and encourage other Western nations to follow suit, France recognized the Coalition as the legitimate Syrian government. Today the new Syrian ambassador was welcomed at the Champs Elysee presidential palace in Paris, where he met with France's President, Francois Hollande, and the head of the newly formed Syrian opposition coalition. France has been well out ahead of western allies nearly since the start of the Syrian uprising 20 months ago. Saturday's surprise announcement came even before the brand new coalition has named its provisional government and before a place in Paris to house the envoy has been found. "There will be a Syrian ambassador in France," Hollande announced. France expelled its al-Assad regime Syrian ambassador in May, at the same time that other countries were doing the same. Mouaz Al-Khatib, the opposition leader, described the new Syrian ambassador to France, Mounzir Makhous, as "one of the first to speak of liberty" in Syria. He holds four doctorate degrees and belongs to the Muslim Alawite sect of President Bashar Assad, demonstrating an effort to reach out to all of Syria's people, al-Khatib said. France recognized the coalition days after it was formed last Sunday - and so far is the only western country to do so. France, under Gaullist President Nicolas Sarkozy, also took the lead in backing the Libyan opposition that ultimately ousted leader Moammar Qadhafi, and flew the first mission of the international coalition providing air support to Libyan rebels. But, the United States and other EU nations have said they prefer to wait and see whether the coalition truly represents the variety of people that make up Syria before they recognize it. Syrian opposition coalition leader al-Khatib said in today's Paris news conference that military and administrative organizations are being formed and a coordination center devoted to humanitarian aid will be set up in Cairo. In a bid to reassure other nations, the coalition president said thay as soon as the fighting ends,the coalition will arrange for fully democratic elections to be held "in all freedom" so that the Syrian people can select the democratic institutions and the form of constitutional regime that they want." The al-Assad regime's comment concerning France's action was typical : "If France has appointed him, then he is a French ambassador, not a Syrian one.". For the rest of us, Vive la France. The world has need of her in these difficult times. -- to remind us what our human principles are and how they should be demonstrated.