It seems clear now that Mitt Romney has the support he needs to be a viable GOP candidate. Yesterday he took moderate Michigan, but including half the social conservative and one-third of the blue collar vote. At the same time, he won in conservative Arizona by a wide margin and took the Wyoming caucuses.
The talk about a brokered convention has become the dream world of the leaders of the GOP's right wing, who would prefer to lose the presidency rather than to see a moderate Republican elected. And these ideologues are even out of step with their own constituency. In Michigan, many conservative Republicans interviewed yesterday said they voted for Romney rather than for Santorum for two reasons: Santorum is playing the religion card too hard and only Romney can beat Obama in November.
So, Grand Old Party, let's get your act together. There are still GOP party leaders, the people who can muster money, convention support, and statewide action for one candidate or another, and who could, if the want to, make order out of the mess that the Republican primary season has become.
It is time for these leaders to convince Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich to drop out of the race and let Mitt Romney carry the GOP colors into the convention and beyond into November.
Gingrich and Santourm are not stupid men. They know they will not win the nomination because Romney continues to out-collect them in delegate votes, and if the contest becomes tight, they surely know that Ron Paul will throw his delegate support to Romney, not to either of them.
So, let's get in line, support Romney, and stop tearing each other apart in a vicious game that will only weaken the GOP's chances in November.
The goal, as we all agree, is not to destroy the GOP. The goal is to defeat Barak Obama and bring back some sanity and American sense to the White House.
Let's get started before it's too late.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Europe's Eurozone Problems Deepen
If you decided to take the weekend off and watch the Daytona 500 and the Oscars, you may have missed a few things that point out just how completely unfinished are the European Union’s efforts to come to terms with its monetary union Eurozone.
Reuters is reporting several events that will have a real impact on the Eurozone and the European banking system.
First, on Tuesday the European Central Bank (ECB) temporarily suspended the eligibility of Greek bonds for use as collateral in its funding operations and told national central banks that they would have to provide banks with liquidity using an emergency measure.
The move was in response to Standard & Poor's cut of Greece's long-term ratings to 'selective default' after Athens launched a bond swap to lighten its debt burden.
The ECB said national central banks could provide liquidity using "emergency liquidity assistance" (ELA) until a 35 Billion Euro collateral enhancement scheme is activated by the ECB in mid-March, at which point Greek bonds would again be eligible in principle to use the ECB-led liquidity mechanism.
"Via ELA, the Greek central bank is allowed to accept collateral that is not eligible in normal ECB operations," Reuters quotes Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert as saying.
The ELA is underwritten by the countries whose central banks extend it, so this latest move will put more pressure on the finances of Eurozone countries whose budgets are already strained. The ELA is critical because Greek and Cypriot banks would almost certainly face immediate bankruptcy if their central bank funding was withdrawn.
Other banks in countries like France also own large chunks of Greek debt, meaning they too would face major financing issues if the Greek bonds they hold suddenly become unusable as collateral at the ECB.
Reuters said that the Eurozone's deal makers and the ECB did not foresee the potential flaw in the collateral plan brought about by the 35-billion-euro support scheme not being activated in time.
The ECB estimates that there is roughly 40 billion euros of sovereign and other types of bonds underwritten by Greece being used as collateral to get ECB funding. Greek banks account for a large portion of that but those in Cyprus and other parts of the euro zone such as France also have sizeable Greek holdings meaning their governments will also have to use the ELA emergency liquidity assistance until mid-March.
While all this was going on, in Germany, the German top court said on Tuesday a parliamentary committee set up to approve urgent action by the Eurozone bailout fund was "in large part" unconstitutional because it circumvents the Bundestag’s right to decide on budgetary matters. This ruling may hamper Berlin's ability to tackle Europe's debt crisis.
The Constitutional Court verdict means that either a full session of the 620-strong Bundestag (lower house of parliament) or its 41-member budget committee will have to be convened every time a decision has to be made on the use of the bailout fund.
The specially named panel of nine MPs will only be allowed to approve the purchase of debt on the secondary bond market by the fund - a facility that has not been used as yet anyway. It will not be able to approve loans or preventative credit lines for troubled Euro member states like Greece or the capitalisation of banks.
The ruling can be seen as an indication that the German Bundestag, as well as the German public, are becoming more and more tired of having to foot a large share of the bill for bailing out the likes of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, and object to their powers over such budget-related issues being curtailed.
Notwithstanding the growing resistance among German voters to further bailout spending, pressure is also mounting on Berlin from the world's leading economies to free up funds for more international help.
Former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, one of the architects of the euro, warned in the popular daily Bild that Germany was in danger of "losing sight of the goal of a united Europe".
Are you ready for one last tidbit?
Ireland, the first bailout country in the Eurozone, will hold a referendum on Europe's new fiscal treaty, according to Prime Minister Enda Kenny, setting the stage for the first popular vote on the German-led plan for stricter budget discipline across the region.
After joining 24 other EU states last month in agreeing to the pact for stricter budget discipline, Kenny sought advice from the country's lawyer on whether a vote was necessary and told parliament that on balance, a referendum would be required.
"The Irish people will be asked for their authorization in a referendum to ratify the European stability treaty," Kenny told parliament.
Support for the European Union has dropped considerably in Ireland over the past three years of austerity measures forced on it by the EU as the price to pay for aid to prop up its collapsing banking sector, so the Irish vote will be key.
So, dear readers, as I and many others have been saying, it ain’t over yet and the fat lady hasn’t even started to warm up her voice.
Reuters is reporting several events that will have a real impact on the Eurozone and the European banking system.
First, on Tuesday the European Central Bank (ECB) temporarily suspended the eligibility of Greek bonds for use as collateral in its funding operations and told national central banks that they would have to provide banks with liquidity using an emergency measure.
The move was in response to Standard & Poor's cut of Greece's long-term ratings to 'selective default' after Athens launched a bond swap to lighten its debt burden.
The ECB said national central banks could provide liquidity using "emergency liquidity assistance" (ELA) until a 35 Billion Euro collateral enhancement scheme is activated by the ECB in mid-March, at which point Greek bonds would again be eligible in principle to use the ECB-led liquidity mechanism.
"Via ELA, the Greek central bank is allowed to accept collateral that is not eligible in normal ECB operations," Reuters quotes Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert as saying.
The ELA is underwritten by the countries whose central banks extend it, so this latest move will put more pressure on the finances of Eurozone countries whose budgets are already strained. The ELA is critical because Greek and Cypriot banks would almost certainly face immediate bankruptcy if their central bank funding was withdrawn.
Other banks in countries like France also own large chunks of Greek debt, meaning they too would face major financing issues if the Greek bonds they hold suddenly become unusable as collateral at the ECB.
Reuters said that the Eurozone's deal makers and the ECB did not foresee the potential flaw in the collateral plan brought about by the 35-billion-euro support scheme not being activated in time.
The ECB estimates that there is roughly 40 billion euros of sovereign and other types of bonds underwritten by Greece being used as collateral to get ECB funding. Greek banks account for a large portion of that but those in Cyprus and other parts of the euro zone such as France also have sizeable Greek holdings meaning their governments will also have to use the ELA emergency liquidity assistance until mid-March.
While all this was going on, in Germany, the German top court said on Tuesday a parliamentary committee set up to approve urgent action by the Eurozone bailout fund was "in large part" unconstitutional because it circumvents the Bundestag’s right to decide on budgetary matters. This ruling may hamper Berlin's ability to tackle Europe's debt crisis.
The Constitutional Court verdict means that either a full session of the 620-strong Bundestag (lower house of parliament) or its 41-member budget committee will have to be convened every time a decision has to be made on the use of the bailout fund.
The specially named panel of nine MPs will only be allowed to approve the purchase of debt on the secondary bond market by the fund - a facility that has not been used as yet anyway. It will not be able to approve loans or preventative credit lines for troubled Euro member states like Greece or the capitalisation of banks.
The ruling can be seen as an indication that the German Bundestag, as well as the German public, are becoming more and more tired of having to foot a large share of the bill for bailing out the likes of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, and object to their powers over such budget-related issues being curtailed.
Notwithstanding the growing resistance among German voters to further bailout spending, pressure is also mounting on Berlin from the world's leading economies to free up funds for more international help.
Former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, one of the architects of the euro, warned in the popular daily Bild that Germany was in danger of "losing sight of the goal of a united Europe".
Are you ready for one last tidbit?
Ireland, the first bailout country in the Eurozone, will hold a referendum on Europe's new fiscal treaty, according to Prime Minister Enda Kenny, setting the stage for the first popular vote on the German-led plan for stricter budget discipline across the region.
After joining 24 other EU states last month in agreeing to the pact for stricter budget discipline, Kenny sought advice from the country's lawyer on whether a vote was necessary and told parliament that on balance, a referendum would be required.
"The Irish people will be asked for their authorization in a referendum to ratify the European stability treaty," Kenny told parliament.
Support for the European Union has dropped considerably in Ireland over the past three years of austerity measures forced on it by the EU as the price to pay for aid to prop up its collapsing banking sector, so the Irish vote will be key.
So, dear readers, as I and many others have been saying, it ain’t over yet and the fat lady hasn’t even started to warm up her voice.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Hillary Clinton's Strange Remarks
The world has been talking the past two days about the phrases US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has been using to express her views about Syria and its related issues.
She began by saying the refusal of Russia and China to join the world community in condemning Syrian President al-Assad and his regime of terrorism against his own people is “despicable.”
Later, she turned directly to al-Assad, telling him to step down because his regime is finished, saying “it may not be tomorrow or in a week…” but it is over. She followed up by addressing herself to the Syrian army, asking them to think about their duty to the Syrian people and to save their honor by stepping aside from the violence.
What is striking about Clinton’s free-wheeling remarks these past days is that they come from an American Secretary of State, whose remarks are expected to be measured, calming and non-adversarial.
Is Hillary Clinton speaking for President Obama - that is, has he chosen the words we are hearing.
Or has the President unleashed her to say what she thinks appropriate for the time and place, not worrying about what the diplomatic result might be.
Or has Hillary Clinton, who late last year announced that she wanted to leave the State Department at the end of January 2012, simply come to the time in her career, and in her relation with President Obama, that she feels free to say what she thinks on the world stage. If this is the case, she is playing a dangerous game that could backfire on America, but since her aggressive words have been aimed solely at the Syrian situation, she has little to fear because the world is firmly in agreement with her.
What I find interesting is that Mrs. Clinton is at the same time defending President Obama against his potential Republican opponent in November, saying that she thinks he will be re-elected. This is something that no sitting Secretary of State ought to say…ever. She is not a political figure, but the person who represents America to the entire world.
She admitted this when she apologized for her partisan political remark, but the entire segment of her apology is amazingly non-correct politically. The following is a quote from the CNN report of the exchange in Tunisia.
“Clinton also defended telling an audience in Tunisia Saturday that Obama would be re-elected.
‘I was asked whether the comments in the primary campaign, some of which have been quite inflammatory, represented America’ she said, adding that they did not necessarily. "I represent America.’
As America's top diplomat, Clinton would not normally make political statements to a foreign audience.
‘Probably my enthusiasm for the president got a little out of hand,’ Clinton said with a laugh.
But she said her comments were appropriate.
‘I know what happens in campaigns. I've been there, done that, and I know that things are said that are not going to be put into practice or policy,’ she said. ‘I did think I needed to point that out to the audience.’ "
That is an amazing statement and I defy anyone to find its equal anywhere in the history of American Secretaries of State.
I wonder if she is making her farewells as she travels this month. Or if she has finally decided to break out of the Obama administration straightjacket and be her own person.
If this is the case, then we might want to follow her closely, because she may be getting ready to be a candidate herself, or to line up Democrat convention support that will make it necessary for President Obama to choose her as his Vice President if he wants to be nominated himself for a second term.
I’m guessing, of course. But, no one as savvy and intelligent as Hillary Clinton would make the remarks she has made in the last two days without understanding their implications or without have a very good reason for making them…time will tell.
She began by saying the refusal of Russia and China to join the world community in condemning Syrian President al-Assad and his regime of terrorism against his own people is “despicable.”
Later, she turned directly to al-Assad, telling him to step down because his regime is finished, saying “it may not be tomorrow or in a week…” but it is over. She followed up by addressing herself to the Syrian army, asking them to think about their duty to the Syrian people and to save their honor by stepping aside from the violence.
What is striking about Clinton’s free-wheeling remarks these past days is that they come from an American Secretary of State, whose remarks are expected to be measured, calming and non-adversarial.
Is Hillary Clinton speaking for President Obama - that is, has he chosen the words we are hearing.
Or has the President unleashed her to say what she thinks appropriate for the time and place, not worrying about what the diplomatic result might be.
Or has Hillary Clinton, who late last year announced that she wanted to leave the State Department at the end of January 2012, simply come to the time in her career, and in her relation with President Obama, that she feels free to say what she thinks on the world stage. If this is the case, she is playing a dangerous game that could backfire on America, but since her aggressive words have been aimed solely at the Syrian situation, she has little to fear because the world is firmly in agreement with her.
What I find interesting is that Mrs. Clinton is at the same time defending President Obama against his potential Republican opponent in November, saying that she thinks he will be re-elected. This is something that no sitting Secretary of State ought to say…ever. She is not a political figure, but the person who represents America to the entire world.
She admitted this when she apologized for her partisan political remark, but the entire segment of her apology is amazingly non-correct politically. The following is a quote from the CNN report of the exchange in Tunisia.
“Clinton also defended telling an audience in Tunisia Saturday that Obama would be re-elected.
‘I was asked whether the comments in the primary campaign, some of which have been quite inflammatory, represented America’ she said, adding that they did not necessarily. "I represent America.’
As America's top diplomat, Clinton would not normally make political statements to a foreign audience.
‘Probably my enthusiasm for the president got a little out of hand,’ Clinton said with a laugh.
But she said her comments were appropriate.
‘I know what happens in campaigns. I've been there, done that, and I know that things are said that are not going to be put into practice or policy,’ she said. ‘I did think I needed to point that out to the audience.’ "
That is an amazing statement and I defy anyone to find its equal anywhere in the history of American Secretaries of State.
I wonder if she is making her farewells as she travels this month. Or if she has finally decided to break out of the Obama administration straightjacket and be her own person.
If this is the case, then we might want to follow her closely, because she may be getting ready to be a candidate herself, or to line up Democrat convention support that will make it necessary for President Obama to choose her as his Vice President if he wants to be nominated himself for a second term.
I’m guessing, of course. But, no one as savvy and intelligent as Hillary Clinton would make the remarks she has made in the last two days without understanding their implications or without have a very good reason for making them…time will tell.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Churchill Would Have Understood the Problem in Afghanistan
Winston Churchill once said, “A fanatic is one who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject.”
I was sadly reminded of this today on hearing that two US military advisors to the Afghan UN forces were killed in a shootout in the Ministry of the Interior in Kabul. The officers were found dead in their offices, bullet wounds in their heads, according to one Afghan source, who said that an armed Afghan apparently shot them.
Afghan President Karzai has called for calm and restraint in the aftermath of the attack and deaths.
The UN general in charge, John Allen, has withdrawn all UN counsellors from Kabul ministries. The British government has also withdrawn its counsellors from Afghan ministries.
American Defense Department officials have responded, saying the deaths were “unacceptable.” Afghan Defense Minister, Abdul Rahim Wardak, offered his excuses to the American government.
President Obama has agreed with President Karzai that calm and discussions are needed at this time.
The Spokesman for the Afghan Interior Ministry, Sediq Sediqqi, has stated that there are ongoing investigations to determine who is responsible for the killings.
The Taliban has announced that one of their insurgents, Abdul Rahman, fired the shots that killed four people, as a reaction against the “lack of respect” shown by foreign forces in Afghanistan, and especially for the burning of the Koran. The Taliban added that it has called on its insurgents to kill American military personnel, who were characterized as “invaders.”
Winston Churchill, who often seemed responsible for the entire world during the Second World War, also once said, “Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”
This is exactly where the UN and American forces are right now in Afghanistan. The Taliban has whipped up devastatingly anti-American and anti-foreigner sentiment among ordinary Afghans. It has poisoned the relationship that was to make it possible to put Afghanistan on a footing to manage its own affairs by 2014 so that the UN forces could withdraw.
The Taliban have obviously seized on the numerous errors in judgment made by American troops - burning copies of the Koran, urinating on corpses, actions that should never have happened but which do happen in war - to push the UN and Americans out of the country as soon as possible. These unforeseen events are among the very things Churchill was talking about. They can change the dynamics of a war in hours today when TV and inserted journalists make the news immediately available around the world, as it should be, I might add.
I have written several blogs about the foolhardiness of being in Afghanistan in the first place. We shouldn’t be there and we should get out. The Taliban will never be eliminated by our tactical programs and we are simply giving them propaganda fodder every day that we remain in Afghanistan.
On this point, as is often the case, Ron Paul is absolutely right. America has no business policing the world or nation-building where it is not welcome. His call for strategic withdrawals is a voice crying in the wilderness, but it is a voice of reason, especially vis-à-vis Afghanistan.
Just one more word from Mr. Churchill concerning war : “ However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”
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