What Is Vladimir Putin Planning for Europe's Future?

The British government pledged today to spend 2% of its GDP on NATO every year for the next five years, which was a huge vote of support for the US effort to pump up NATO in the face of Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggressivity. British Finance Minister George Osborne told Parliament during his budget statement on Wednesday that the British government is : "not prepared to see the threats we face to both our country and our values go unchallenged....So today I commit additional resources to the defense and security of the realm...committing today to meet the NATO pledge to spend 2% of our national income on defense, not just this year, but every year of this decade." Equally important, Osborne also said the government would guarantee a real increase in the British defense budget every year. A Treasury aide said the defense budget would reach 47.7 billion pounds ($73.18 billion) a year by 2020. US State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the United States appreciated the leadership shown by "one of our greatest friends and our strongest allies" and added : "We strongly urge all NATO allies to do the same, and it's critically important that NATO be able to respond effectively to existing and future threats, and the only way to do that is for allies to make the necessary investment in their armed forces." Last month, NATO said it expected military spending by its 28 members to fall this year in real terms despite increased tensions with Russia and a pledge by leaders last year to stop reducing defense budgets. NATO expects five alliance members, including Britain, to meet the 2% spending goal in 2015, up from four in 2014. Britain is the largest NATO contributor after the US. ~~~~~ The British government has felt pressure from both Conservative and Labour members of Parliament to commit to the NATO 2% target, but Prime Minister David Cameron had previously declined to do so beyond the current financial year until a defense review currently under way is completed. Several top US military figures, including US Army Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno, had also expressed concern about declining defense spending by Britain, which still spends more on defense than any other European NATO member. ~~~~~ Why are the British and Americans so concerned to see that NATO is operating at full financial capacity? The easy first answer is two words. Ukraine. Crimea. And that is more than sufficient to make NATO top up. But Vladimir Putin has recently begun to make disturbing noises about other pieces of the old USSR empire that were lost when it collapsed. Russia still feels humiliated by the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990 and 1991. The proof? The Russian Prosecutor General's Office is now reviewing the legality of the 1991 decision by the USSR State Council to recognize the independence of the Baltic republics - Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia - and their exit from the Soviet Union. Putin's United Russia party, which dominates the State Duma (parliament), as well as Russian politics, submitted the question to the Prosecutor General. Putin's United Russia lawmakers say the Soviet State Council was an unconstitutional body created in the chaos in 1991, so its recognition of Baltic independence should have no legal effect. The Council officially recognized the independence of the three Baltic states in September 1991 - a decision many Russians regard as leading to the irreversible breakup of the Soviet Union. The Russian Interfax news reports that sources familiar with the situation say that the Prosecutor General's probable answer to the Duma : "will be the same as a recent analogous request about Crimea. Legally, the decision to recognize the independence of the Baltic States is defective due to the fact that it was taken by an unconstitutional body." In June, the Prosecutor General's Office ruled that the Soviet State Council decision to transfer Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 was illegal. Putin had already used the same reasoning to justify Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 -- by discrediting the February 1954 transfer by Nikita Khrushchev of the Crimean peninsula to the administration of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic. While Russia and many others may regard its forced retaking of Crimea as final, it is not yet clear how the Prosecutor General will decide about the Baltics. Today, the Baltic states are part of NATO and the European Union, and attempting to exercise any "control" over them, or shifting the dialogue in favor of their eventual return to direct Russian influence, would have serious consequences because NATO Charter Article 5 requires all member states to go to the aid of any attacked member state. So far, Putin is merely posturing to gain political advantage in a Russia that is both feeling nationalistic pain and suffering economically. But, Putin's posturing related to the Baltic states raises questions about whether he will in the future turn his attention to them, as well as other former Soviet republics in eastern Europe. ~~~~~ One current indication that Putin is at least trying to become the latest Russian champion of eastern Europe is Russia's veto of a UN Security Council resolution yesterday. The UN resolution was intended to condemn the Srebrenica massacre as a genocide to mark the 20th anniversary of the killing of 8,000 Moslem men and boys on July 11, 1995, toward the end of Bosnia's 1992 to 1995 war, when Bosnian Serb forces swept into the eastern Srebrenica enclave, a UN-designated "safe haven." They executed the 8,000 Moslem men and boys in the days that followed, dumping their bodies into pits. The resolution wording followed the advice of the UN war crimes tribunal for the former Yugoslavia that ruled the massacre, the worst mass killing in Europe since World War Two, was genocide. While Russia exercised its veto, China, Nigeria, Angola and Venezuela abstained and the remaining 10 counci members voted in favor. The vote was delayed a day as Britain and the United States tried to convince Russia not to veto the resolution. Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin had appealed for the Security Council not to vote on the resolution, which he described as : "not constructive, confrontational and politically motivated. The blame for the past is placed basically on one people....Our vote against...will not however mean that we are deaf to the sufferings of the victims of Srebrenica and other areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina." Russia had proposed that the Security Council instead condemn "the most serious crimes of concern to the international community." Britain said it was outraged by the Russian veto. British Deputy UN Ambassador Peter Wilson told the Counci after the vote : "Genocide occurred at Srebrenica. This is a legal fact, not a political judgment. On this there is no compromise." Serbia acknowledged that a "grave crime" took place and adopted a declaration condemning the massacre in 2010 as it sought closer ties with the West, but stopped short of describing it as genocide. The draft resolution angered Bosnian Serbs and Serbia, who branded it as "anti-Serb" and sent a letter of protest to the United Nations. Serbia warned on Tuesday that the resolution would only widen ethnic divides in neighboring Bosnia. Serbia's President Tomislav Nikolic said yesterday that Russia had "prevented an attempt of smearing the entire Serbian nation as genocidal" and proven itself as a true and honest friend. ~~~~~ There you have it, dear readers. Putin's Russia rejected the idea that the systematic massacre of 8,000 people with a common ethnic and religious profile was genocide -- for Russia the resolution was to be vetoed in order to show friendship for a large group of eastern Europeans. It seems very likely that Vladimir Putin is storing up IOU's for future use. It is indeed time for the other 26 NATO member states to step up and pledge their 2% NATO contribution, as Britain and America have already done. Putin does not respect weakness -- Ukraine and Crimea prove that. But the time may unfortunately arrive when he will be obliged to respect NATO strength.

Has Iran Actually Agreed to Anything?

According to a Reuters report, one already-achieved - and perhaps the only - outcome of the long P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran is that it has given Iran time to install a new anti-aircraft defense system. Iran says it has deployed a new domestically built long-range radar system that strengthens its air defenses. Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) air defense force, unveiled the Ghadir phased-array radar in Ahwaz city in southwestern Khuzestan province near the Iraq border, as reported by Iran state TV last week. Iran says the Ghadir unit is designed and manufactured entirely inside Iran and can detect a plane at 600 km (373 miles) and a ballistic missile at 1,100 km (700 miles). Esmaili suggested that the radar can also identify miniature unmanned drone aircraft : "Discovering and tracking micro aerial vehicles...is one of the special qualities of the Ghadir radar system." Iran developed its new air defenses after US and Israeli officials warned of possible military action to curtail its nuclear program if no negotiated deal is reached. Iran is also in discussions to buy the advanced S-300 ground-to-air missile system from Russia. The US head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, said in April that the "military option" against Iran remains intact. The United States and Israel say Iran is trying to obtain a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. ~~~~~ The concrete outcomes stop there. Iran and world powers meeting in Vienna have made some progress in their nuclear negotiations, but have not reached agreenent on issues such as lifting United Nations sanctions and the development of advanced centrifuges. Federica Mogherini, the European Union's foreign policy chief, said the negotiations would continue despite "tense" moments, while the US State Department announced that the current interim nuclear arrangement with Iran has been extended through July 10. American Secretary of State State John Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and other top diplomats in Vienna spoke of serious differences remaining, including inspection rules on suspicious Iranian sites and limits on Teheran's research and development of advanced nuclear technology. Mogherini said : "The last, difficult, political issues, we have to solve." A senior US official in Vienna confirmed to ABC News that one more clear difference had resurfaced, and explained that the US would oppose Iran's new demand that the nuclear agreement also include the lifting of the UN arms embargo on Iran. The official said America is insisting that any new UN Security Council resolution on Iran keep in place an arms ban and ballistic missile restrictions. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov left the talks for an economic summit in Moscow, he said that fewer than 10 major differences are still unsettled, including access to Iranian sites for international monitors. He said questions related to the easing of sanctions on Iran had been decided, according to Russian news agency RIA Novosti. Lavrov said he could return to the talks later in the week. ~~~~~ Diplomats had extended their discussions by a week when they missed their goal of a pact by June 30, after passing previous deadlines in July 2014 and last November. For Kerry and his team, pressure is on to reach a deal, in the face of unhappy allies, such as Saudi Arabia, France and Israel. Members of the US Congress also express serious misgivings about any Iran deal. The No. 2 House Democrat, Representative Steny Hoyer, told reporters Tuesday the talks "ought to be brought to a close. My concern has been that there would be a rope-a-dope sort of performance by Iran, that they'll just string out these negotiations," he said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was straightforward : "The agreement of concessions that Iran is set to get from the world powers paves the way for it to arm itself with nuclear weaponry and to distribute it even more through the missiles it continues to develop. How can you even trust a country that violates time and again the decisions of the international community? How does one grant Iran hundreds of millions of dollars without stipulating that this money will not oil the wheels of the terror machine and its expansion?" The only answer President Obama and Secrerary Kerry seem to offer for these concerns is to promise that they will hold out for a "good deal." ~~~~~ In addition, Iran still must resolve remaining issues with the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, which is responsible for probing and inspecting Iran's nuclear program. The IAEA is still trying to get Iran to hand over additional documents and information that would clarify the past military aspects of Iran's nuclear program. After meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani last week, IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said he believes "both sides have a better understanding on some ways forward," but added "more work will be needed." ~~~~~ Dear readers, President Obama is fast approaching one of the outcomes he most fears -- giving the US Congress more time to review any Iran deal he agrees to. If a deal is sent to Congress between July 10 and September 7, Congress will have 60 days to review it, and Obama administration officials fear that such a review situation could provide more time for any deal to unravel or for pressure groups to influence US lawmakers to oppose any deal. There are many contentious points as yet not agreed between Iran and America -- Iranian demands for the lifting of a UN arms embargo and ballistic missiles sanctions; the timing of US and EU sanctions relief; future Iranian nuclear research and development - especially of advanced centrifuges that would drasticalky shrink the time needed to produce fissionable material for a nuclear bomb; access to Iranian sites for international monitors; and inspection rights and protocols for Iranian nuclear sites, in particular suspect military sites. We might reasonably ask just what has been agreed in the last 18 months of negotiation. The answer is simple and disturbing. The US has agreed to lift some sanctions against Iran just to get it to the table. The sanctions lifted amount to something between the original official $7 million and the $25 to $50 million suggested by analysts. In return, Iran has continued to arm and provide military support to Hezbollah, Hamas, the Yemeni Houtchis, al-Assad and shiite jihadists such as the Moslem Brotherhood everywhere in the Middle East. In addition, the Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has continued to cry "Death to America" to hardliner Iranian mobs as he also tells them that Israel must be eradicated. I have only one question -- after any deal is signed, why will Congeess need 60, or even 30, days to say No.

Eurozone Fissures and German Weaknesses Highlighted by Greek No Vote

After Greece’s landslide vote rejecting Eurozone bailout terms, German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a fundamental test her leadership abilities as she tries to find the right direction for Europe at a decisive moment. Jan Techau, director of Carnegie Europe, a research group based in Brussels, told the New York Times : “This has taken on a political dimension that far exceeds the economics. This is now about all the basic tenets of European integration -- the balances between the economic and the political, between toughness and solidarity, whether Europe is still an example in the world for peaceful resolution, whether the southeastern flank holds." ~~~~~ Merkel is regarded as the de facto leader of the European Union, and she is expected to give direction for an array of challenges beyond Greece. Britain is planning a 2017 referendum on its membership in the EU, threatening the departure of one of the EU’s largest members. Russia’s re-emergence as a security threat has been met with disagreement among EU member countries about how to confront Russian President Putin. And as yet, there is absolutely no consensus about how to deal with the illegal migrants flooding into southern Europe in growing numbers from Africa and the Middle East, a concern that has increased as Greece falls deeper into crisis. Additionally, nationalist and populist movements have become serious challenges to mainstream EU political parties, questioning how well EU leaders and institutions connect with average citizens and whether the EU is even democratic. Nigel Farage, leader of Britain’s UK Independence Party - UKIP - rejoiced Sunday on his Twitter account that the EU “is now dying. It’s fantastic to see the courage of the Greek people in the face of political and economic bullying from Brussels.” Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Front, on Monday morning expressed concern for the lack of leadership from French President Hollande. She repeated her call for taking France out of the Euro and out of the EU. The now-surfacing nationalism runs deep across Europe. Merkel and other leaders see it as a threat not only to their own political positions but also to decades of slogging effort since the end of World War II to purge Europe of its old nationalistic character and resolve disputes between nations through the cumbersome mechanisms of the European Union. ~~~~~ But today, the focus is Greece. Merkel and Hollande met in Paris late Monday afternoon to try to forge a common pisition before Tuesday's Eurozone leaders meeting. They failed. President Hollande said : "The door is open for discussion," calling on Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to make "serious" proposals quickly. Chancellor Merkel was more unbending : "We say very clearly that the door for talks remains open and the meeting of Eurozone leaders tomorrow should be understood in this sense. But at the same time we say that the requirements for starting negotiations about a concrete ESM program are not present at the moment." Germany has also warned against any unconditional write-off of Greece's debt, amid fears it would destroy the single currency. German economy minister and vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said : "The other 18 member states of the Euro can't just go along with an unconditional haircut [debt write-off]." The differences between the French and German stances on Greece reflect a chasm running through the EU. So, some countries - led by France - are pushing for a deal that wil give Greece some breathing space to stay in the Eurozone. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls says Greece must stay in the Eurozone because it could not "take the risk of Greece leaving" - for economic as well as political reasons. Others -- led Germany and including Malta, Slovakia and Estonia that are owed significantly more by Greece as a percentage of GDP than Germany or France -- are under greater political pressure at home not to bend, and wonder whether such a deal is possible. It all leaves Greece in a precarious position. The best that can be said is that it could go either way. ~~~~~ Germany is known as a law-abiding, practical, hard-working country that has the best economy and checkbook in the EU. It projects an image of rectitude and precision. But, there are chinks in that image. One chink relates to Islamists and anti-Semitism in Germany -- the number of Islamists increased to 43,890 in 2014 from 43,190 in 2013, according to a report recently released by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. Radical Islamists are “the greatest danger to Germany,” according Hans-Georg Maassen, the president of the agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. “Germany is on the spectrum of goals for Islamic terrorists,” he added. There are 950 active Hezbollah and 300 Hamas operatives in Germany. The Merkel administration along with the EU banned Hezbollah’s military wing in 2013, but allows its political wing to operate. Hamas is a designated terrorist organization. According to the report, the number of Salafists in Germany increased from 5,500 in 2013 to 7,000 in 2014 . The Salafists are “the most dynamic Islamic movement in Germany” and serve as a recruitment pool for jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq, according to the report. The chapter on “Islamism and Islamic terrorism” states that at German demonstrations against last summer’s Gaza war, there “were rather more Hamas-supporting events than peace demonstrations, and there was clearly public anti-Semitism.” The anti-Semitic slogans targeted “Jews and Israel” and resulted in attacks on Jews and pro-Israel activists. Some of the protest slogans were : “Kill the Jews!” “Jews out!” and, “Hamas, Hamas, Jews to the gas!” The report also cited the arson at the Wuppertal synagogue in North Rhine-Westphalia state in June 2014. A local court exonerated the perpetrators, German Palestinians, of anti-Semitism. It said the men sought to bring “attention to the Gaza conflict” by tossing Molotov cocktails at the synagogue. The number of attacks by right-wing extremists soared to 990 in 2014, a 23.6% increase from 2013. The unifying factor for Islamists, the far right and far left, is a deep loathing of Jews, according to the report. ~~~~~ So, dear readers, it would seem that some of Chancellor Merkel's time should be spent at home, devoted to eradicating the increasing Islamist jihadism and anti-Semitism in Germany -- before she attempts to tell Greece how much Germany has already 'given' to help Greece or tries to lead Europe to a bright new tomorrow. Every country has its own homegrown problems. Some are easily handled. Some require long-term programs and patience -- both Greece's debt profile and Germany's jihadists and right wing anti-Semitism, for example. Every house is a glass house. Any people or leader who pretends otherwise will eventually feel the stones of critics and hear the shatter of glass where they assumed that they were protected by impervious brick walls. The West is patient with Germany and you, Chancellor Merkel, because we know you are making serious efforts to eliminate jihadism and anti-Semitism. In return, be patient with Greece because she is making serious efforts to un-do the austerity folly you led her into and to get back on her economic feet, even though you may find the effort un-German.

Greece Voted No -- But Is Europe "Democracy Tone-Deaf?"

One determined young man with 11 million fearless citizens behind him can change Europe. And perhaps the world. ~~~~~ Greece has voted NO. The cradle of democracy has raised its 2,500-year-old torch high. We can both marvel at Greek fearlessness and feel shame at our own timidity in the aftermath of this truly human victory. No to more humiliating enforced austerity with its resulting 25% reduction in Greece's productive capacity. No to hungry pensioners. No to suicides. No to massive destructive joblessness and poverty. No. ~~~~~ This week we will see how the Eurozone and its troika of the European Central Bank, European Commission and International Monetary Fund respond. We will see what German Chancellor Merkel says and does to try to salvage the Euro and the European Union from the rising tide of democracy in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy -- and in the United Kingdom where Prime Minister David Cameron has already set the scene for a vote next year on whether to stay in the EU. The UK has just been given a big stick by Greece's indefatigable democrats. He may now find Denmark and France, and the new eastern European EU members, more open to driving through badly needed reforms to return the EU to its achievable vision of a confederation of sovereign nations with no internal tariff and travel walls and selected common programs for industrial development and defense. ~~~~~ Greece has big problems to solve. It will need the help of the ECB to provide Greek bank liquidity. It will need the help of its creditors, who must face reality and re-negotiate Greece's debt. It will need the IMF to arrange a roll-over of its Greek loan to stretch out the repayment schedule. If - as appears impossible in practical terms - the EU/ECB/IMF balks, Russia and China seem ready to step in. This would be especially problematic for NATO because Greece is the NATO member that anchors its Mediterranean reach, along with a more worrisome Turkey that is now playing a dangerous game of support for Islamist jihadists. ~~~~~ One would hope that the United States will choose to help Greece. That seems very improbable if we expect the Obama administration to respond. But, this past week, 9 House members and one Senator wrote to the IMF's Legarde to say that if the IMF does not help Greece, they will ask Congress to reconsider the US role in the IMF. A powerful message from members of the American institution that signs the US check for the IMF. ~~~~~ Dear readers, I began in January to plead Greece's case. I felt a lot like Don Quixote jousting at windmills. But some things are non-negotiable because they represent universal human truths. Democracy comes first on that list for me. And, true to its civilization -- which it has planted in the DNA of all of us who are her children -- Greece has proved decisively that democracy is not negotiable. There are lessons for America here and we will soon address them. But, today belongs to Greece. It has taught us once again that people matter, that culture matters, that humanity matters. And that democratic institutions are the only protector of those truths. Today, for the thousandth time, I can say "Thank-you" to the memory of my Athenian grandfather who, by his words, actions and life, taught all of us, his grandchildren, that if one wants to be a complete human being, it is culture, civility, human kindness, intellectual curiosity, ethical behavior - and Greece - that matter.