Trump Is Changing the Israeli-Palestinian Equation, and the UN, EU and Middle East Should Take Notice

A better way than most to begin a discussion of last weekend's Paris Israel-Palestinian Conference is to consider the weekend Jerusalem Post interview of Alan Dershowitz, who began the interview by observing : "The Middle East is a more dangerous place after eight years of the Obama presidency than it was before. The eight disastrous Obama years follow eight disastrous Bush years during which that part of the world became more dangerous as well. So have many other international hot spots. In sum, the past 16 years have seen major foreign policy blunders all over the world, and most especially in the area between Libya and Iran, that includes Israel, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey and the Gulf." • While it is usual in the mainstream media to link Obama Middle East failures to G. W. Bush failures, there is one enormous difference in the two Presidents' policies that highlights the disastrous tale of the Obama presidency. Dershowitz lays that difference out clearly : "With regard to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, the Obama policies have made the prospects for a compromise peace more difficult to achieve. When Israel felt that America had its back -- under both President Clinton and Bush 43 -- it offered generous proposals to end settlements and occupation in nearly all of the West Bank. Tragically the Palestinian leadership -- first under Arafat and then under Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas -- did not accept either the Barak-Clinton offers in 2000-2001, nor the Olmert offer in 2008. Now they are ignoring Netanyahu’s open offer to negotiate with no pre-conditions." • There is the difference in spades. Bush, and Clinton before him, were staunch supporters, and protectors, of Israel, and it led to Israel's openness to attempt negotiation with the Palestinians even though the cooler heads in Israel and America knew that the odds of success were minimal because of the Palestinian "destroy Israel" agenda. Obama has ignored this crucial reality. As Dershowity puts it : "Instead of having Israel’s back, he repeatedly stabbed Israel in the back, beginning with his one-sided Cairo speech near the beginning of his tenure, continuing through his failure to enforce the red line on chemical weapon use by Syria, then allowing a sunset provision to be included in the Iran deal and culminating in his refusal to veto the one-sided UN Security Council resolution which placed the lion’s share of blame on the Israelis for the current stalemate. These ill-advised actions -- especially the Security Council resolution -- have disincentivized the Palestinian leadership from accepting the Netanyahu offer to sit down and negotiate a compromise peace. They [the Plalestinians] have been falsely led to believe that they can achieve statehood through the UN, or by other means that do not require compromise." • • • THE PARIS MIDDLE EAST PEACE CONFERENCE. With the words of Alan Dershowitz in mind, move to last weekend's much-discussed Paris Middle East Conference that many Israel-haters had hoped, and Israel and her friends had feared, would result in an ultimatum to Israel to negotiate a two-state agreement with the Palestinians "or else." But, the Paris Conference ended Sunday with a rather bland statement reaffirming support for a two-state solution, and calling for a stop to violence and “ongoing settlement activity.” Seventy countries and international organizations, including the foreign ministers of more than 30 states, attended the Conference, which included neither Israeli nor Palestinian participants. Israel adamantly opposed the Conference. The Jerusalem Post quoted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying on Sunday that he felt it was “futile” and a relic of an approach to the Middle East that will end on Friday with the inauguration of US President-Elect Donald Trump. Netanyahu said the Conference represents the “final palpitations of yesterday’s world. Tomorrow will look a lot different, and tomorrow is very close.” The Conference final statement did, nevertheless, adopt the anti-settlement UN Security Resolution 2334, as well as the six principles that US Secretary of State John Kerry laid out in his December 28 speech. Kerry, who attended the Conference, called Netanyahu from Paris and said the United States will oppose any efforts to codify the Paris declaration into another Security Council resolution. Israeli sources told the JPost that Kerry called Netanyahu from the Conference to brief him on the efforts the US was taking there to soften the language of the final statement. According to the sources, Netanyahu told Kerry that damage had already been done to Israel by the anti-settlement resolution that the US allowed to pass in the Security Council last month, and that no more harm should be allowed by the Paris Conference. The JPost sources said that Kerry assured Netanyahu that there would be no follow-up to the Paris Conference in the Security Council. • In the Kerry contact with Netanyahu, we see the anti-Israel face of Obama -- trash and slap down Israel at every turn and then state at every public opportunity how much the Obama apparatus supports Israel. • In fact, the Paris Conference statement made no reference to a further Security Council resolution, but did call for a follow-up conference by the end of the year “to support both sides in advancing the two-state solution through negotiations.” The statement also included a “call on each side...to refrain from unilateral steps that prejudge the outcome of negotiations on final-status issues, including, inter alia, on Jerusalem, borders, security, refugees and which they will not recognize.” • If the Kerry calls to Netanyahu were the Obama Israel public support noise, the point of the statement is the Israel slapdown. A French diplomatic source told the JPost that there had been tough negotiations on that paragraph. Diplomatic officials in Jerusalem said intensive efforts by Israel over the last few days were successful in softening the language of the statement, which -- for instance -- did not include the language of Resolution 2334 in referring to East Jerusalem as “occupied territory.” They also noted that there would be no follow-up in the Security Council, and attributed this largely to Israel’s furious reaction to the US failure to veto that resolution. The final Conference statement also did not explicitly criticize plans by Trump to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, although diplomats said the wording was meant to send a “subliminal” message. Sources told the JPost Kerry’s discussion with Netanyahu on Sunday tipped the balance on this matter, with Kerry objecting to any mention of Jerusalem as capital of both Israel and “Palestine,” or to a specific follow-up mechanism. • French Foreign Minister Jean- Marc Ayrault [the former leader of the French Socialist Party in the National Assembly and just about as far removed from foreign affairs expertize as a diplomat can be] said at a press conference after the meeting that while the Paris statement will not be adopted at the Security Council at a meeting it will hold on the Middle East on Tuesday, it will certainly be discussed at Monday’s meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels. Ayrault said he would go to Washington once Trump takes office, and -- among other issues -- discuss the Conference’s resolutions with the new administration. Ayrault said all the countries and organizations that took part in the Conference shared a sense of urgency about continued settlement activity and the increase in violence on the ground, in Jerusalem and elsewhere, elements that are threatening hopes to achieve a viable two-state solution. While Ayrault said the international community as a whole must firmly condemn the terrorist attack in Jerusalem last week, he also pointed out that the international community was united behind the anti-settlement resolution at the UN. Ayrault said he is ready to invite Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to Paris, or to go to the region and discuss the Conference declaration with them. • The only worse thing than having Ayrault go to the Middle East would be to have French President François Hollande make the trip with him. That France favors the Palestinians and goes out of its way to undercut Israel is a given. President Hollande told the Conference the two-state solution was threatened on all fronts -- by the continued settlement enterprise, by the peace camp weakening, by growing mistrust between the sides, and by the terrorists acting against it. Hollande rejected the assertion made by Israel that France was trying to impose a solution on the sides, stating, “We have no intention to dictate any parameters of a solution. Only direct negotiation can lead to peace. No one can do it in the stead of the leaders of both sides. Only the leaders of both sides can convince their own peoples.” • Keep in mind that a year ago, France under Hollande and then French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius were warning Israel that either it would make peace or France would consider recognizing a Palestinian state. So, we should use extreme caution in assessing the French 'olive branch' to Israel. • French diplomatic sources expressed disappointment that New UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres didn’t attend the Conference, especially since France actively backed his candidacy to the post. Arab countries participating all sent their foreign ministers, and so did most of the EU countries, with the noticeable exception of Britain, which sent Michael Howells, head of the Mideast desk in the foreign office, and two diplomats in its embassy in Paris. Russia, as well, was “only” represented by its ambassador to France, and not by its foreign minister. Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat issued a statement, saying : “We welcome today’s statement by the Paris Peace Conference, which stressed the need to end the Israeli occupation that began in 1967 as per international law and international legitimacy resolutions; including the recent Security Council Resolution 2334.” • Really?? It is not possible for the French and the EU to have it both ways -- either they support negotiations of an empowered Israel with the Palestinians, or they do not. It would appear that Britain and Russia tend agree with this -- the positpon of Donald Trump. The Paris Middle East Conference suggests that the worm has not turned and that Israel is well-advised to hold tight to President Trump as its champion. • • • POPE FRANCIS WELCOMES THE VATICAN PALESTINIAN EMBASSY. The Vatican, and more precisely Pope Francis, like France but even more extreme, are sitting in the Palestinain corner and against Israel. As Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met with Pope Francis and inaugurated the Palestinian embassy to the Holy See, Pope Francis stressed the sacred nature of Jerusalem on Saturday as the Palestinian leader warned that prospects for peace could suffer if the incoming Trump administration goes ahead with plans to move the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Abbas said he had only heard through news reports of the proposal by US President-Elect Donald Trump to move the embassy to Jerusalem, a move the Palestinians strongly oppose, saying it would kill any hopes for negotiating an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement and rile the region by undercutting Moslem and Christian claims to the holy city. Abbas told the media while he was at the Vatican : "We hope that this news is not true, because it is not encouraging and will disrupt and hinder the peace process." The Vatican has long sought an internationally guaranteed status for Jerusalem that safeguards its sacred character. In its communique after the Abbas meeting, the Holy See didn't refer to Jerusalem by name but said that during the talks with Abbas : "emphasis was placed on the importance of safeguarding the sanctity of the holy places for believers of all three of the Abrahamic religions." • All that sounds positive, until one realizes that Abbas was at the Vatican to formally inaugurated the new Palestinian embassy across the street from one of the main gates of Vatican City. He pulled back a curtain revealing a plaque and unfurled the Palestinian flag from a flagpole outside a window. Abbas said of the embassy : "This embassy is a place of pride for us and we hope all of the countries of the world will recognize the state of Palestine, because this recognition will bring us closer to the peace process." The Palestinian embassy, located in the same building as the embassies of Peru, Ecuador and Burkina Faso, comes after recent accords in which the Vatican formally recognized the "State of Palestine." The Vatican is one of the very few states in the world to have officially "recognized" a 'State of Palestine' -- Sweden is another. • • • A US CONGRESS RESOLUTION TO DEFUND THE UN. The UN Security Council Resolution 2334 that delegitimiwed Israel has brought serious backlash in Congress. Now, Senators Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz have announced that they are introducing a resolution to end all US taxpayer funding for the United Nations “unless and until” the UN reverses UN Resolution 2334, which is the first one condemning Israeli settlements in disputed territories to have been adopted by the Security Council in more than three decades. The UN passed the resolution just before Christmas after the Obama administration abstained, rather than use its veto power to kill it. Senator Cruz said : “What brings us together today is an issue that that I think really unites -- it unites Republicans, but it ought to unite Democrats, it does unite Americans -- and that’s standing with Israel. If you look at the last month, what Barack Obama has done, I think it has been nothing short of shameful. It has been striking out against Israel, really showing his true beliefs. And the United Nations, with his acquiesencee if not active encouragement, passed a rabidly anti-Israel resolution.” Cruz told MSNBC that the UN resolution declares much of Israel illegal and illegitimate; it declares much of Jerusalem to be not part of Israel; it even declares that the Jewish Quarter and the Temple Mount -- the holiest site for the Jewish people -- is not part of Israel. And the Western Wall! We all remember the image of Barack Obama wearing a yarmulke, standing in front of the Western Wall. He's now signed onto the proposition that that is illegal, occupied territory. That is shameful! And in my view, we need to act to defend, not only our friend and ally the nation of Israel, but also US interests." Graham told MSNBC that 22% of the money used to fund the UN comes from the American taxpayer : "I don't think it's a good investment for the American taxpayer to give money to an organization that condemns the only democracy in the mideast, takes the settlement issue and say that's the most important and only issue in terms of an impediment to peace." Graham blamed John Kerry and Obama for "taking a slap at Israel," saying : "I think most Americans believe that the United Nations has become more anti-Semitic, more anti-Israeli, and I'm a big internationalist, but we're going to stop the money until we get this fixed." Cruz said cutting off US funding is the only effective path forward : "The only way to get their attention -- we can give speeches, we can pass resolutions and the UN is going to ignore what we say; but if you cut off their money, that gets their attention, and I think we've real prospects of seeing this thing move through Congress and actually turning this thing around." • • • OBAMA'S ROLE IN THE UNSC RESOLUTION. CNSNews.com reported earlier this week that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has “unequivocal evidence” that the anti-Israel Security Council resolution was orchestrated by the Obama administration. “There’s no question whatsoever about that -- none whatsoever,” Netanyahu told a visiting AIPAC delegation. The Obama administration denies this. But, President Obama told "60 Minutes" that he made the call for the US to abstain from the vote on the UN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlements, allowing the resolution to pass, and that doing so "didn't fray relations" between the two countries : "I don't think it caused a major rupture in relations between the United States and Israel. If you're saying that Prime Minister Netanyahu got fired up, he's been fired up repeatedly during the course of my presidency, around the Iran deal and around our consistent objection to settlements. So that part of it wasn't new...And despite all the noise and hullabaloo, military cooperation, intelligence cooperation, all of that has continued. We have defended them consistently in every imaginable way. But I also believe that both for our national interests and Israel's national interests that allowing an ongoing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians that could get worse and worse over time is a problem. And that settlements contribute. They're not the sole reason for it, but they're a contributing factor to the inability to solve that problem." • So, Obama believes he can trash Israel at the UN and eliminate its holy sites from its heritage without harming US-Israeli relations -- another Obama fantasy that always paints his foreign policy blunders or deliberate plots into being a 'good thing' for the ally, often Israel, harmed. • • • DEAR READERS, President Trump will have the next word about the Israel-Palestinian peace negotiations. And, in an interview with the Times of London, Trump said that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, will work to "broker a Middle East peace deal." Kushner, Ivanka Trump's husband, is presumabmy being tapped to take on the task of negotiating peace between Israelis and Palestinians -- an appointment Trump has previously floated because of his evaluation of his son-in-law -- repeating that Kushner "knows the region, knows the people, knows the players," In previous intervies, Trump has discussed his interest in securing a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians -- an agreement he has referred to as the deal of all deals. Kushner has no previous diplomatic experience, but he guided Trump's foreign policy throughout his presidential campaign and subsequent presidential transition. He was the primary drafter of Trump's speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which drew positive feedback from the crowd. Israel's defense minister, Avigdor Lieberman, said of Kushner last month : “What we know, he’s a really tough, smart guy, and we hope he will bring new energy to our region.” Kushner and his wife, who converted upon their marriage in 2009, are Orthodox Jews. Dennis Ross, a senior Middle East diplomat and veteran of the George H. W. Bush, Clinton and Obama administrations, told the Jerusalem Post : "He clearly is someone who has a sense of Jewish identity, and he is someone who has a genuine attachment to Israel and understanding of the importance of the US-Israel relationship. People I know who know him describe him as smart, as someone who will clearly learn what he needs to learn and will approach things thoughtfully, carefully, even analytically. So those would all be descriptors that I would hope would be accurate and emblematic of how he'll approach his responsibilities helping the new President." • By sending his son-in-law to deal with the Israel-Palestinian question, President Trump is sending the most forceful message possible to the Middle East -- that Israel is extremely important to him as the only consistent US ally in the region and that his his foreign policy will include support for Israel on a level not yet seen in any American President. Why drqw that conclusion? Nobody would send his daughter's husband into a "Custer's Last Stand" situation. So, we may be certain that Donald Trump, who adores his children, will also throw his own vast foreign negotiating experience and that of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson behind Jared Kushner. There are no promises that it will work -- after all, the Palestinians have neve accepted any Israeli or American offer to negotiate -- but we can be sure that if Trump fails, not a given that the Palestinians can count on, the future for the Palestinians and their UN and EU and French supporters will be bleak.