French Conservatives Get Set to Choose their post-Sarkozy Leader

While the world has been busy with Afghanistan, Syria, the two political party presidential conventions in the US, and other assorted world events, something interesting is taking shape in French politics,
A fight has begun for the leadership of the UMP - the party of the defeated conservative French president Nicolas Sarkozy.
The UMP is the latest version of the Gaullist conservative right in France. The name changes often but the players and principles remain the same - support for business, lower taxes, fewer entitlements, less government in general - by French standards, that is.
Unlike America, in France, the leader of each political party is usually that party’s candidate in the next presidential election. Sarkozy, however, chose to leave the party leadership (akin to being the chairman of the Democratic or Republican National Committee in America) to one of the younger and more strident members of his coterie, Francois Copé, a man often expected to replace Sarkozy, once his two terms were finished, as the UMP’s presidential candidate. At least Copé saw it that way.
But, another UMP leader, Francois Fillon, was Sarkozy’s prime minister for the entire five years of his term as president, something rare in France where prime ministers change often. In France the prime minister is selected by the president and ratified by the National Assembly, usually controlled by the president’s party. Francois Fillon is extremely popular with French conservatives.
In fact, before Sarkozy announced that he would be a candidate for a second term, many UMP leaders said, very quietly, that Fillon would be the better candidate, having a greater chance of beating any Socialist.
It was reminiscent of the early 2012 whispers in Democratic circles hat Hillary Clinton would be a stronger candidate that Barak Obama.
As it turned out, Sarkozy, very unpopular because of his reforming changes in French entitlements, taxation and business policies, was the candidate. He was behind in the polls from the beginning and lost to Francois Hollande, the Socialist, who is now president of France.
It is now time to choose a new leader of the UMP, the person who will undoubtedly be the strongest contender to face Francois Hollande in 2017 for the presidency of France. From the day after Sarkozy’s defeat, Copé announced that he was a candidate to continue as UMP leader.
Grumblings began immediately about his stridency, lack of finesse, and general non-sympathetic approach to UMP politics.
The name being offered was that of - Francois Fillon.
And, Fillon, very close to Nicolas Sarkozy, had several meetings with him earlier in the summer. Fillon then announced that he was considering challenging Copé for the UMP leadership. There was also a weekend meeting of the “friends of Nicolas Sarkozy” to honor the former president
The game was on.
And this weekend, the first results of polls of party faithful were announced concerning whom they prefer as UMP leader.
Francois Fillon is way ahead of Copé -- 62% to 21%. Fillon has gained 14% since his announcement that he would be a candidate.
The poll results are enormously in Fillon’s favor: Men : 61%, Women 62%, city residents 69%, Parisians 63%.
Copé’s best poll numbers were with retirees at 25%, +65s at 28% and small city and rural voters at 26%.
The hand of Sarkozy, who announced that he was finished with party politics, is writ large here. Copé has never led the UMP. His work was to advance the cause of Sarkozy, something he failed to do if one looks at Sarkozy’s loss last May, in which no group or region voted for him with more than 50% of the vote.
And Sarkozy’s followers, and they are many and well-placed all over France in local and regional politics, blamed Copé for not working earlier and harder to muster the troops to get out the vote.
Fillon and Copé have agreed to a televised debate on October 2nd, which may tell us more about who will be the UMP’s next secretary general.
But, if you want to place an early bet, take Francois Fillon.
Nicolas Sarkozy is, despite his loss to Hollande, a consummate politician, and it appears that he has made a comeback faster than anyone imagined.
But, this time, it is as the Grand Old Man working behind the scenes to confirm his heritage - by putting his younger faithful in powerful places - like the French presidency in 2017.