Friday, May 25, 2012

The Week of the Euro, Greece, Spain, Egypt, Trump, Iran and Formula 1

It has been a busy week on many fronts and so it’s time, dear readers, to note some of the most important events of the past seven days.

1. After saying that it needs no exterior help in solving its bank debt crisis, Spain was on Friday faced with two serious events. First, Bankia, one of Spain’s largest banks, had its stock trading stopped while it began negotiations with the Spanish government about how to provide the US$23 Billion it needs to re-capitalize itself. It’s not good news if the banking crisis is spreading to Spain, but it is likely to continue because Spain was in a huge real estate building bubble that has burst much like that in the US, and so far, no steps have been taken to solve the banks’ liquidity and solvency crises.

2. At the same time, the largest region in Spain, Catalonia, which represents 25% of Spain’s economy, has said that although it will meet its debt obligations and continue to function, it needs help from the Spanish government to stabilize its financial position.

3. Withdrawals from Greek banks continue and there is no mechanism in the Eurozone compact to provide for halting such bank runs. Perhaps more unnerving is the fact that major European financial funds are reportedly getting rid of their Euro investments, which could be the beginning of a run on the Euro itself. The Euro has fallen to $1.25 from $1.30 this week, the steepest weekly decline on several years.

4. Donald Trump has said that he is starting a Super Pac to provide political advertisements against the Obama administration’s bungling of the US relationship with Asia and China, in particular. Trump, no friend of the President, says this is a neglected area of discussion and he aims to plug the hole.

5. Latest US polls and analysis show that Mitt Romney and President Obama are in a dead heat with probable voters. Of course, it is early days and the real poll figures will come in September.

6. Iran may be enriching uranium to a 27% level, instead of the 20% it reports. This in itself is not dangerous - 90% enrichment is needed for bombs - but it may be that a program to get to 90% is now underway. As the IAEA inspectors pointed out, the 27% traces found in enrichment labs may also simply be leftovers from adjustments made to get to 20% in new enrichment apparatus.

7. Egypt looks set to have a second round of presidential voting that will pit a Muslim Brotherhood candidate against a former prime minister under Murarak (he was PM for only a very short time during the revolution that toppled Mubarak). A starker choice could not be possible and Egyptians must now decide if they want an Islamist state or a modern democracy. That may sound like a simple decision to make, but it is not in an Egypt that has been torn apart and is looking for stability and a strong president - the Brotherhood candidate may seem more compatible with the voters’ goals, but their fierce desire for modern participatory government, which led them to sacrifice their lives to topple Mubarak, may yet win the day.

8. But, don’t forget, dear readers, that it’s the weekend of the Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix, and after you digest the bad news of the past week, take time out to sit back and watch the best F1 race of them all.

1 comment:

  1. And when you have finished with F1 on Sunday, then watch the Indy 500, an American Tradition, and then the NASCAR Sprint Cup Coca-Cola 600 from the Charlotte Motor Speedway. And my congrats to Michael Schumacher for the Pole at Monaco. That's one for the old guys.

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