The Romney Team Electoral Vote Strategy

My sister sent me an analysis of the Romney team strategy for winning the White House in November. It’s interesting for its facts, but, dear readers, it also gives us an upfront look into how presidential campaigns are mapped out for victory.
First, you have to know that it takes 270 electoral college votes to become President of United States. The electoral college, provided for in the US Constitution, is the group that is made up of electors from each state, chosen on election day in November through separate ballot entries with their preference for President usually noted, and each state is allocated electors according to its population. They assemble in Washington on the first Monday in January and cast their votes for President. Normally, they vote for the person who won the election in their state, casting all their votes for that person, although there is no constitutional imperative to do so. When the elector votes are cast, the candidate who has at least 270 votes is declared President.
With that in mind, the Romney team’s strategy is to campaign first to hold all the states won by Senator John McCain in 2008. This should be very possible because states that voted in the face of the blitz win in 2008 by Barak Obama are surely conservative and Republican at their core, so this will probably give Romney 180 electoral votes.
Then, the plan is to add three normally GOP states that went to Obama in 2008 - Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina. This could be not too big a problem because these states have, since 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected, voted for GOP presidential candidates.
Now comes the harder part.
The Romney team will focus on winning in two crucial swing states - Ohio and Florida. These states often change the party they vote for in presidential elections and so can be big predictors of who will win the election.
But, even if Romney wins Ohio and Florida, he will be 4 electoral votes short of victory, so he will need to win at least one more swing state to be elected President. The possible states are New Hampshire (where Romney has a home), Colorado, Pennsylvania, or Michigan (where his father is remembered as a great governor).
So, now all you have to do is mark your map, or keep this blog as a guide and you’ll be able to interpret early vote returns on election night, November 6, and perhaps you will make the big prediction even ahead of the more careful media analysts who like to be sure before making their announcement of the victor.
Something to keep in mind, though, is the one statistic working against Mitt Romney and the GOP. In the last 100 years, there have been 25 presidential elections but only 5 challengers have beaten incumbent sitting presidents. That puts a different perspective on the Romney team’s goal.
And current polls put President Obama and Romney in a virtual deadlock. The candidates are even in Ohio and Florida polls, and Obama is slightly ahead of Romney in Virginia and North Carolina.