What America Can Learn from the French Socialist Presidential Primary Held Today

Today the French Left held a party primary to decide who will be their flag bearer in 2012 against sitting President Sarkozy, seeking a second term.

The results are almost complete and Francois Hollande (former Socialist Party chairman) has 39%, Martine Aubry (current Socialist Party chairman) has 31%, and Arnaud Montebourg (parliament member from a farming area near the Burgundy wine region) has 17%. Segolene Royal, the Socialist presidential candidate who was beaten by Sarkozy in 2007, garnered only 7% of the Left’s votes.

The primary was interesting in that it was the first time that anyone willing to show a piece of identification, declare his or her support for the Socialist cause and pay at least 1 Euro was allowed to vote. Almost 2 million French did just this.

Now, because no one got 50% of the votes, there will be a run-off election next Sunday between Hollande and Aubry. The others will spend the week talking to the two frontrunners and to their supporters and telling them who they should vote for next Sunday. That’s how French electoral politics works.

Hollande is the representative of the center-left and is seen as the most likely to take votes away from Sarkozy in 2012. Aubry is much more to the left but has a strong position in big cities, something Hollande lacks. The wrench in the works is Montebourg, who appeals to the extreme left and favors anti-mondialization and a severe retrenchment of France in world politics. His ability to beat Royal by such a margin (17% to 7%) seems to be sending the message to French voters that 2012 will be about France’s role in the world and its need to put its own house together before saving everyone else (i.e., Libya, Afghanistan, etc.).

Today’s French election has painted a picture that is almost the mirror image of America’s going into 2102 presidential elections.

1. Sarkozy is very conservative / Hollande is a moderate leftist.

2. Obama is very left / Romney is a moderate conservative. 

3. The French are angry with Sarkozy for what they see as making a big mess of the financial crisis and causing them to lose jobs, industrial output and income and they might be ready to give the Left another chance despite the economic mess left by the only leftist president of France ever, Francois Mitterrand, in the 1980s.

4. Americans are angry with Obama for what they see as making a big mess of the financial crisis and causing them to lose jobs, industrial output and income and they might be ready to give their Republican Party, usually favored for the presidency, a chance to re-take the White House in 2012.

5. Despite all the dissatisfaction with the conservative Sarkozy, the French Left seem to be leaning toward the most moderate Socialist candidate (i.e., closest to Sarkozy)  to oppose him in 2012.

6. Despite all the dissatisfaction with the leftist Obama, American Republicans  seem to be leaning toward the most moderate GOP candidate (i.e., closest to Obama) to oppose him in 2012.

This will make for interesting time during both presidential elections. American Republicans will try to un-seat a leftist president with a moderate conservative candidate who is actually the closest to Obama in his political ideas. The French Left will try to un-seat a conservative president with a moderate leftist candidate who is actually the closest to Sarkozy in his political ideas.

For me, the lesson here is that the more a president or government lurches toward the extremes - either right or left - the more likely it is that in the next election voters will try to pull the country back toward the center, where compromise is possible and government can avoid severe gridlock and function.