Electability and Herman Cain in the GOP Candidate Field

The latest Washington Post- ABC News poll is out, published online in the Post today by Dan Balz and Jon Cohen.

The poll results show slipping support for Rick Perry and rapidly rising support for Herman Cain.

I suppose this isn’t surprising, considering that Perry has been hammered by all sorts of commentators, professional and amateur, about his poor debate skills and his ideas about integrating children of illegal immigrants into the Texas educational system. Then, just when it seemed Perry was beginning to recuperate, the hunting camp story hit and it was, to quote Rosey Roswell, a bygone Pittsburgh Pirates announcer, “Open the window, Aunt Minnie …” all over again. The opposition had hit a home run right into Perry’s solar plexus.

The numbers? Perry has lost half his support among all conservative voters and sits at 10% with tea partiers. Mitt Romney is stable, but cannot seem to get much above 27% support, no matter what he says, does, or looks like. Herman Cain, on the other hand, is rising rapidly in a lackluster field, now placing in the top three in almost every poll. In this current poll, Cain is second, behind Romney.

As I’ve been writing for some months now, we can forget about Sarah Palin (two-thirds of GOP voters polled do not want her to run), Ron Paul (11% support), Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann (tied at 7%), and Jon Huntsman (leave him quietly in his 1% corner, but he’d make a good Secretary of State for the eventual winner). Rick Santorum is at 2%, but I hate to attack a fellow Pennsylvanian and so I’ll only say, Rick, bow out gracefully and give your support to someone who has a chance at winning, and who just might give you an important job if you deliver Pennsylvania and your candidate is elected.

The rest of the poll results are in line with expectations, with the exception that when those polled were asked who they like more, the more they know about them, Cain skyrocketed, leaving the others in the dust, Texan or otherwise, with 70% of those who watched the debates saying the more they know him, the more they like him. Could we be watching a political version of The King and I, with Cain courting his somewhat confused and cautious lady.

There were one-on-one questions, but the results were predictable. Perry is favored with conservatives, but Romney is considered more electable. Cain was not in this set of questions, so we don’t know how he’d have scored against either Romney or Perry on the question of conservative support or electability.

Of course, there is the moment’s big question - will Chris Christies run? He’s going to tell the world in less than an hour, but with the Post-ABC poll numbers showing that only 42% of GOP and GOP-leaning voters polled want him to enter the race, it’s a little like Rhett Butler’s famous line to Scarlett, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.” And, rumors on CNBC and CNN are that Christie will say he is not running.

Where are we poor mortals who need a candidate if we are to take the keys to the White House away from President Obama. In a hard place, to be sure. Obama still beats any of the GOP field, albeit by statistically small margins, and even though 55% of all those polled say anybody will beat him in 2012.

Romney’s strong cards of electability and experience when matched against Perry fall apart when the question of health care is asked.

So, we have a White House that will not Obama’s, come November 1012, if only we can figure out whom to give the keys to. That is not your usual dilemma in politics.

Maybe it has something to do with the “electability” catch-phrase. Electability is not a personal attribute nor is it a quality that can be measured until it has already been proven. So, why is it so important for 2012?

Perhaps because the stakes are so high for America that the choice must almost guarantee success. We’re not looking for a pretty face or a smooth delivery of someone else’s lines. We’re looking for the real thing. A President.

I think that is why Herman Cain is polling so well. He is relaxed, assured without being over-bearing, calm in his confidence that he can weather the storm that is sweeping over us, and he even laughs occasionally - at himself, at the world of politics, at stupidity but in a way so kind and quiet that we understand that he is not vindictive or overwhelmed with winning. He even settled the hunting camp question in a way that was gentlemanly and mature.

Herman Cain is simply there - to reassure us, to comfort us in our time of trial, to give us possible solutions that make sense, to talk with us as if we mattered, to listen and respond without hyperbole. 

That is presidential. The electability will take care of itself.