Three Trends to Watch in Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan and Morocco

As Abraham Lincoln said, "The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time."

There are several budding trends in the news today. Three in particular give us something to think about as we watch them become full-blown transformations, or until they are dumped on the global garbage heap where most trends end.

1. Angelina Jolie is in Syria to tour Syrian refugee camps near the Turkish-Syrian border. She is there in her role as goodwill ambassador for the Office of the United Nations Hugh Commissioner for Refugees. There are 10,000 Syrian refugees already in Turkish camps, and more Syrians are moving toward the border. Syrian troops are also reported to be moving toward the Turkish border and are near the Syrian border town, Badama, cutting off the exit routes of fleeing Syrians. This is ominous because those fleeing may become caught in the middle of a Turkish - Syrian border standoff or be starved by Syrian forces pushing them back into Syria where they are in danger. Jolie’s visit, too, may prove to be disconcerting, since almost every refugee area that UNHCR goodwill ambassadors visit is, or becomes, a long-term holding pen for thousands of displaced people and families who have nowhere to go and nothing to do but hope for someone to right the wrong they have suffered.

2. Afghan President Karzai has confirmed that the US is in peace talks with the Taliban. You can read my 11^th of June blog on Henry Kissinger’s advice about a solid Afghan peace. Needless to say, the Americans, who are surely following the advice of President Obama, ought to read Kissinger’s advice, too. They would then understand that any peace with the Taliban that does not include bringing Pakistan, India and Iran to the negotiating table is the recipe for future instability in the region and has a great chance of resulting in wars, including nuclear ones.

3. Moroccan King Mohammed VI made a 30-minute address to the nation last night, outlining a new draft constitution that gives sweeping powers to an elected prime minister, who will also appoint ministers and dismiss parliament. The King will keep the power to appoint ambassadors and will remain military commander-in-chief. The announced draft comes after a 3-month national consultation with political parties, trade unions and civil society groups, ordered by the King. Mohammed VI had already been liberalizing a country that is perhaps the most liberal of all Muslim states. But, the King’s unilateral powers have always been a block to real democratic government. If Moroccans accept the new constitution in a July 6th referendum, Morocco will be the first Muslim country to use the Arab Spring to modernize without wrenching civil unrest.