Benghazi Will Haunt Obama's Legacy

Every American President, while he is a candidate or soon after his first election, makes pretty much the same statement : "Judge me by my record." The record usually consists of an economy growing at 3-5% per year, unemployment at 4.5-6%, and a budget slightly in the red. US troops may be deployed in key world regions but combat zones don't exist, and domestic terrorism is unheard of. Then, there was 9/11 followed 6 years later by the worst global financial and fiscal crises since 1929. Suddenly, President George Bush was being judged on his record in keeping America safe from domestic terrorist threats and on his success in bringing to justice the 9/11 perpetrators. His budget deficits rose but it didn't become an issue until late on his second term when the fiscal bailout of banks used an unfunded $800 billion. What angered the world, and finally many Americans, was his invasion of Iraq as a response to 9/11. Bush left office in 2008 with a very badly damaged reputation. Enter Barack Obama. He ran on pledges to straighten out the financial and fiscal messes, reduce unemployment from its then current 7.7%, end the war in Iraq and repair America's world reputation. America has spun down into as much as 11% unemployment and its budget deficits are at unprecedented $1 trillion per year every year. He did end the Iraq war...only to fall into his own unwinnable war in Afghanistan. His favorability ratings hover around 47-50%, although given the mess the entire world's finances are in, we could perhaps forgive most of these results. But, vastly more important, President Obama has shown no ability to survive, let alone control, Washington and the US federal government. As a consequence, he has become a divisive figure, whose actions are often seen to be secretive, unconstitutional or efforts to make America into something Americans do not want to be. He has, because he cannot control the congressional agenda, relied on stonewalling, blamed the opposition Republican Party for his own failures, and used suspiciously deceptive tactics. Most of these tactics have sooner or later blown up in his face - but he continues to defend his actions as correct and preferred by the majority of Americans. One example that is far from over is the Benghazi diplomatic compound attack and assassination of US Ambassador Chris Stevens last September. The Obama administration has sent various senior officials to give various explanations of what happened and what President Obama did or did not know and do. While the Obama administration insists that there was not enough time to mount a rescue mission to save Ambassador Stevens and the three other Americans killed in Benghazi, Libya, a 40-man special-operations rapid-deployment force was only four to six hours away during the September 11 siege, according to an intelligence source who has talked to Fox News. The revelations come as Senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and Kelly Ayotte are again calling for a joint select committee to investigate handling of the Benghazi attack. They said the committee is needed in light of new revelations about Benghazi, including reports that some whistle-blowers are afraid to testify for fear of losing their Obama administration jobs if they give testimony that disagrees with the official Obama version. Representative Darrell Issa has complained that he has received no responses to four letters  sent to the Obama administration calling for whistle-blowers' lawyers to get the security clearances needed to represent their clients. He also believes there are potential career repercussions for anyone who comes forward with information that might contradict the official account of events from the Obama administration. ~~~~~ Dear readers, the final determination of the value of the Obama presidency will occur well into the future. But his own actions are puttng the negative aspects of his leadership front and center. And while President Bush's reputation is now improving, it is likely that President Obama's reputation still has quite a way to fall.

US Unemployment and Obama's New GDP Calculation

President Obama got a dose of cold water Wednesday morning, with the ADP National Employment Report showing that the private sector added 119,000 jobs in April, well short of the estimated increase of 150,000 jobs. The ADP report said trade and transportation led with job gains of 29,000 in April. Professional and business services added 20,000 and construction, 15,000. The really bad news came in manufacturing, which cut 10,000 jobs. Small and midsize businesses accounted for most of the job gains for the fourth straight month. Small businesses added 50,000 jobs, midsize ones, 26,000. The Labor Department said employers added only 88,000 jobs in March, a significant drop from the average 200,000-plus a month from November through February. The unemployment rate fell to 7.6% from 7.7% BUT only because 500,000 Americans stopped working or looking for work. This is not good news since experts estimate that at least 225,000 NEW jobs a month are needed just to stay level with the losses. ~~~~~ But wait, dear readers, let's take a look at Obama's plan to improve this disastous job creation situation. Will he -- Reduce taxes?? Eliminate unnecessary reporting requiremenrs?? Ah - too reasonable. No - the President is going to change the way the American GDP is calculated, thereby showing a bigger total economic activity...and thus a lower unemployment rate, among other things. Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, told CNBC, "It shouldn't come as a surprise they are going to change the way this number is reported....When GDP numbers are chronically bad [averaging just 1.45% in the last two quarters] and the labor force participation rate is perpetually falling, our government will do the same thing they did for the inflation data - tinker with the formula until you get the desired result." So, in two months, revised government estimates will undoubtedly show that the economy is even bigger than the currently stated $15 trillion. And while the numbers may shock some people, the new calculation of the Gross Domestic Product won't hide the fact that in terms of actual growth, this is the worst US economy in 83 years. GDP growth may be in its longest sub-3% annual growth rate since 1929, the beginning of the Great Depression. The economy hasn't topped 3% since 2005 and is unlikely to top 3% this year. So even if the new GDP calculation adds 3% to the US economy - say, another half-trillion dollars - the US is still stuck in the slow-growth period it has endured since the beginning of the Great Recession. And this is reflected in employment. Though employment has risen by 1.3 million in the past year, unemployment that counts the discouraged and underemployed, as well as the jobless (often called the "real" unemployment rate) has remained stubbornly high, at 13.8% of the workforce, according to the most recent estimates. A state-by-state look at the numbers, released a few days ago and current through the first quarter 2013, shows that just six states have real rates below 10%. The best of the lot is North Dakota, at 6.2%, while the worst is in beaten-up Nevada, with a real rate of 19.6%. In the past year, the unemployment rate actually rose in six states (Alaska, Delaware, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania) and was unchanged in three (Connecticut, Mississippi and Oregon). SO, when you hear, dear readers, that the US government believes the GDP revisions will present a more realistically complete look at the economy, you will understand why critics are crying out that the changes are an attempt to mask weak growth and rationalize more debt, caused partly because the almost stagnant economic growth rate, with its high unemployment rate, cannot generate the tax revenues needed to prevent higher national debt levels. As Mr. Pento said, "It's a shame they won't just implement real measures to grow the economy like reduce regulations, simplify the tax code and balance the budget."

Hezbollah Tests Obama's Indecision

While President Obama is trying to decide whether the Syrians foaming at their nostrils and mouths were hit by al-Assad regime chemical weapons, the first test of Obama's weak decision-making capability occurred. Lebanon's Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, said Tuesday that Syrian rebels will not be able to defeat President Bashar al-Assad's regime militarily, warning that Syria's "real friends", including his Iranian-backed militant group, would intervene on al-Assad's side if the need arises. Hezbollah is already backing Syrian regime fighters in Shiite villages near the Lebanon border against the mostly Sunni rebel fighters. But the comments by were the strongest indication yet that his group was ready to become substantially involved to rescue Assad's embattled regime. "Syria has real friends in the region and in the world who will not allow Syria to fall in the hands of America or Israel or the Takfiris," he said, referring to followers of an al-Qaida like extremist idology, adding that America's accusations about chemical weapons are just an excuse to intervene militarily in Syria. Hezbollah and Iran, close allies of Assad, have been accused by rebels of sending fighters to assist Syrian troops trying to crush the 2-year-old Syrian uprising that is now a civil war. Nasrallah said Tuesday that there are no Iranian forces in Syria now, except for some experts who he said have been in Syria for decades. But he asked: "What do you imagine would happen in the future if things deteriorate in a way that requires the intervention of the forces of resistance in this battle?" Hezbollah is the most powerful military force in Lebanon, stronger than the national army. Its increasing involvement in Syria is already raising tensions inside the divided country and has drawn threats from Syrian rebels. And while Hezbollah was sabre-rattling around President Obama's indecision, Hezbollah's Gaza 'cousins', Hamas, became involved in a fray between the Israeli military and the Mujahideen Shura Council in the Jerusalem area. The group is a little-known al-Qaida affiliate that has claimed responsibility for a number of rocket attacks, including the current rocket launches into Eilat, a quiet seaside town that borders the Red Sea and Egypt's Sinai desert. Israel views the Eilat attack as an escalation. It accused Gaza militants of firing the rockets, which caused no injuries, out of Egypt's lawless Sinai desert. The Israelis made an aircraft attack on a motorcycle in Gaza Tuesday, killing a man who the military said was a top militant in the shadowy group involved in a recent rocket attack on southern Israel. It was the first deadly airstrike in Gaza since an Egyptian-brokered truce was reached with Palestinian militants last November, and is the most serious test yet of the Egyptian-brokered agreement. The Israelis said the dead cyclist Mishal "has been a key terror figure, specializing in weapons and working with all of the terror organizations in the Gaza Strip." They also said he manufactured weapons and specialized in rockets and explosive devices that he sold to militant groups. Hamas, the Islamic militant group that rules Gaza, condemned Israel but worked to maintain the truce. "We call on Egypt to put pressure on the Israeli occupation to stop these crimes and to force them to honor the truce and stop the aggression," said Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum. He also called for a "joint and unified" effort by Gaza's various militant factions. Hamas considers the jihadi groups responsible for the recent rocket fire to be rivals, and has struggled to keep them in check. Since the cease-fire, Hamas has deployed security forces along the border areas with Israel and Egypt to help preserve the calm. Hamas, an Islamist group close to the Muslim Brotherhood now ruling neighboring Egypt, has cracked down on hardline Salafi rivals it sees as jeopardizing its control of the Gaza Strip. ~~~~~ So, dear readers, we have the peculiar situation in which Hezbollah in Lebanon-Syria and Hamas in Gaza, both terrorist groups, are doing Obama's dirty work by trying to control al-Qaida in Syria and Gaza - not to help America or Obama but to protect their own positions as regional powers. I have long since abandoned hope that Obama will do anything to protect Syrians or Israelis or Jordanians or Lebanese. But can Obama not see just how far his non-action has eroded the situation in the Middle East, leaving it open to a Hezbollah-Hamas hegemony.

"The past is a foreign country" - Sometimes

“The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there.”― L.P. Hartley, The Go-Between. ~~~~~ This quote has become iconic in the years since 1953, when Hartley wrote it in his novel. As I think about it today, 60 years later, I wonder to which part of life it most applies. POLITICS - we have have today the news that GOP New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has again said of Democrat President Barack Obama that he has "kept every promise he made" in helping New Jersey to recover from Superstorm Sandy. Christie said he disagrees with Obama 95% of the time but not on the recovery. This week New Jersey is to receive $1.8 billion in recovery aid. In the past, Christie would have taken the money and kept quiet about a President from the other party, but political favors are always the same : "You scratch my back; I'll scratch yours." FISCAL AFFAIRS - we learned today that under President Obama the US national debt has risen to an all-time high when measured as a percent of the income of the average family of four. It stands at $53,000 with the average per family income at $51,000. On the past, this would have been a catastrophic announcement, but today it goes by almost unnoticed. THE COLD WAR - we really don't have a Cold War today. It is very Hot although not at all conventional. US Intel...as we now call it instead of laying it all at the doorstep of the CIA, is hot on the trail of the Boston Marathon bombers' family and friends. We are informed every step of the way, although whether the public is getting any information about the reality of the situation could be questioned. This is more like the past, but with the twist that in the past we were told nothing and so knew nothing. Today, we are told "everything" and still probably know nothing. SPORTS - in a few simple sentences, NBA veteran Jason Collins put years of worry and silence behind him to become the first active player in any of the four major US professional sports leagues to come out as gay. Collins said, "I'm a 34-year-old NBA center. I'm black. And I'm gay." There is no question that in the past, this would have been handled differently. And not for the better. Being forced to lie about oneself - whether it's about one's money, family, friends or sexual preferences - only makes the person a likely target for blackmail, clinical depression or suicide. And that was often what happened in the past, especially in the past of the Cold War. And I doubt it has changed much. In this regard the past is the same country.