Africa Could Become a Headache for America

There are several situations in Africa today which are not comfortable for America.

First, President Obama has sent 100 ground combat troops into Uganda to help sort out a vicious battle raging there between warring factions. As Senator John McCain put it earlier today, there is good reason to try to find ways to help in areas of the world where wanton killing is ongoing. But, before jumping in, this President, or any President, should do two things - explain what and why to the American people, and do the same with Congress. McCain said that we ought to have learned from Somalia (Mogadishu) that US troops on the ground in the middle of a civil war can end disastrously. And, Senator McCain could have added that 100 US ground combat troops sent into a civil war anywhere in the world will surely be followed by more, or withdrawn with no positive effect having been achieved.

Once more, President Obama has jumped from the frying pan into the fire without talking to Congress, without explaining the situation to the American people who elected him, and with no prior warning in the media or otherwise.

Second, there is the Iranian plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador in Washington. Susan Rice, the US Ambassador to the UN, has held a face-to-face meeting with the Iranian Ambassador to the UN in New York. The meeting was arranged by the Swiss Ambassador to Iran, who is the representative of American interests in Iran since the US has no diplomatic relations with Teheran. According to Rice’s office, the meeting’s sole purpose was to tell Iran that America will not let this affair go away without making Iran pay. Now, it seems to me that if the Iran regime can read or hear, it already knows this, in as much as the news is being broadcast all over the world in almost every language. Why was the meeting held? My guess is that we do not know…yet. But, if I were cynical, I’d have to guess that it had something to do with Syria or Israel or the two, and that the Saudi Ambassador plot was a cover.

Third, the president of the Tunisian TV system had his house fire-bombed and his family was rescued at the last minute, but are safe. Why? Because extremist Islamists were unhappy with the fact that the network president telecast Persepolis, a rather unflattering animated film about life in Iran today. The extremists are now calling for the network to be dismantled and re-constituted. So, if we thought that things were going smoothly in the Tunisian Arab Spring, perhaps we had better think again. And, while we are re-thinking, we can add the situation in Egypt to that list of faltering revolutions which may be headed to the right politically as the Arab Spring could be turning into a political nuclear winter.

Libyan Weapons in the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza while Obama Fiddles

The Washington Post ran an article today about arms from Libya making their way into the Sinai Peninsula by way of Egypt and flooding the black market there.

Leila Fadel, the reporter, whose sources are former Egyptian military officials and arms traders in the Sinai, wrote : “Egyptian security officials have intercepted surface-to-air missiles, most of them shoulder-launched, on the road to Sinai and in the smuggling tunnels connecting Egypt to the Gaza Strip since Moammar Gaddafi fell from power in Libya in August, a military official in Cairo said. Arms traders said the weapons available on Sinai’s clandestine market include rockets and antiaircraft guns.”

Obviously, the January revolution in Egypt made access to the Sinai easier and if we add the revolution in Libya and the reported massive caches of Qadhafi weapons still unaccounted for despite UN efforts to track them down, the result is not surprising.

But, having shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles available in the very unstable Sinai and Gaza Strip areas raises the instability level several notches. It also threatens internal populated areas in Israel, which are on Gaza’s borders.

Israeli aircraft and helicopters patrol theses areas. Surface-to-air missile capability in the hands of Hamas, as former Egyptian military experts told Fadel, exist today and put Israeli forces in yet another set of unpredictably dangerous circumstances. But, so far, Hamas- directed Palestinian fighters have not used such weapons against Israeli targets.

Egypt has sent 20,000 troops into the Sinai to intercept and confiscate weapons with some success, including the capture of Russian-made heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles. But, Sinai is populated by Bedouin tribes who do not want to comply with Egyptian orders to surrender weapons or register them. According to Fadel, the Bedouins say they are uneasy about their own safety and have bought missiles to protect their families. Right. It would help to remember that these Bedouins' main cash business is smuggling contraband of all sorts into Gaza in contravention of yet other UN resolutions.   

As yet, there is no serious al-Qaida or Islamist presence in the Sinai but there are groups who occasionally attack tourists and distribute Islamist pamphlets, according to sources Fadel talked with.

This expansion of the Gaza-Palestinian-Israeli conflict makes the region’s tinderbox even more likely to catch fire. American and UN diplomats are working with Egypt to halt the arms trafficking, forbidden in the Sinai and Gaza Strip by UN resolutions, but it will not be an easy matter to seal the borders between Libya and Egypt and the Sinai now that the Egyptian army has other problems to cope with after the January revolution. 

Just one more item for the Republican presidential hopefuls to try to find an answer for...so far, Mr. Obama has settled for speeches and lateral attacks on Israeli positions vis-à-vis Palestine and Hamas. I hope the GOP can come up with something a little more helpful.

The Mind Says Romney, but the Heart Says Perry

The Republican presidential debate last night showed once again, and more forcefully, that Mitt Romney is going to be the GOP’s standard bearer in 2012. All the caveats and “yes, but something could happen” dreams engaged in by the more conservative elements of the party cannot hide the fact that Mitt Romney came to win, and that is exactly what he’s doing.

Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 proposal goes a long way to proving that a catchy turn of phrase and an iron determination to be considered a frontrunner can lift an otherwise ordinary boat. His own description of 9-9-9 is that it is “simple, transparent, efficient, fair and neutral” and, we might add, too slick to be serious as the basis for a presidency. We went that way the last time, with an “I’ll change Washington” campaign so nebulous that we didn’t realize that it was a code phrase for “you’ll love being European socialists.” Not that Cain and Obama are the same, but if Cain is to be a serious contender, he must quickly find a voice for other matters confronting America, namely, “jobs-jobs-jobs” as one debater put it last evening.

Newt Gingrich, for all his “ho-hum, isn’t this all a little boring” attitude, is still the GOP voice that resonates deepest in the caverns of conservative souls. His positions ring true to anyone willing to put aside partisan views, but Newt threw it all away by being unable, or unwilling, to show the discipline required to assemble the team and cash needed to be a real candidate. So, he is exasperatingly correct in his analyses at the same time that he is outside the real selection process.

These three were the winners last night. Romney is still the one to beat.

The losers?

Sadly, Jon Huntsman, who seems to be so polite, so cultured, so even-handed in his statements that it is difficult to remember what he stands for or thinks. As I’ve said before, he is the ideal Secretary of State, or perhaps UN Ambassador, but Huntsman is not presidential material. He almost seems above all that.

Long ago, Bachmann, Santorum and Paul ruled themselves out by being single-issue debaters whose ideology prevents them from being considered for the nation’s top job.  

That leaves Rick Perry. He is a puzzling person. His voice is not forceful or strident in the fashion we have come to expect from politicians. He is not always convinced by his own words, and occasionally apologizes for being wrong. His debating demeanor is almost that of a young man not sure of himself when up against seasoned professionals. His lack of a plan, his dependence of the “Texan” energy card when the question of economic turnaround is on the table - these add to the sense that he is still feeling for his position and voice. He said as much last night when he answered a question posed to him by Romney by saying, “I’ve only been at this for two months.”  

But, there is something about Rick Perry that sticks - it sticks to the heart, to the soul, to the sense of fair play in all Americans.  His eyes are innocent and open, not conniving or cynical. His voice is like everyone’s, not that of someone used to being on a national stage. And, he gives us the feeling that whatever he says, he feels and means, that it is not simply what somebody else wrote and he memorized before the debate began.

Finally, it is the eyes. They remind me of Ronald Reagan’s eyes - sparkling, warm, inviting and full of human kindness. If Rick Perry is to survive, he needs to develop these qualities to their fullest, because they could beat any poised debater any time, any place.

Will Egypt Remain Stable Enough to Become a Democratic Nation

Things were not good in Egypt this weekend.
Christian Copts demonstrated to oppose what they see as unfair rules about building churches as opposed to building mosques. Twenty-five people were killed, some by the Egyptian military, which intervened to try to stop fights that broke out between Copts and Moslems. In the melee, the military tanks rolled over protesters, crushing at least one person's skull in the process. Copt spokesmen asked why this never happens when Muslim groups demonstrate.
Fires broke out in the Tahrir Square area of Cairo and the military enforced a curfew to try to get the situation under control. Today, Cairo is quiet but tense.
The Egyptian interim prime minister asked for calm, reminding the Egyptian people that their time would be better spent building their new government and country instead of engaging in sectarian fighting. But, the Copts believe they are being targeted and say they will continue to demonstrate. Militant Moslems are becoming more aggressive in their attacks on Christian Copts, who make up 10% of the Egyptian population. 
All this is happening at a sensitive time for Egypt. Parliamentary elections will begin in November and continue until March under a staggered schedule. Then, a new constitution will be drafted and a president elected, possibly as late as early 2013. Some Egyptians, both Moslem and Christian, want the presidential election moved up so that the military relinquishes power as soon as possible. The feeling is that the longer the military governs, the more likely it is that they will never give real power to civilians, staying in the background to pull the important strings. The military leadership denies this vociferously.
As long as Egypt stays in the current no-mans-land of military control, with the only outlet for civil grievances and anger being street marches, the more dangerous the situation will become. For example, the Copts' anger relates to churches in the south of Egypt  
but today there have been Copt demonstrations in Alexandria in the far north of the country.
It is in the best interests of the world to help Egypt get its house in order and move on to an elected constitutional civilian government with a popularly elected president. This is a delicate matter, for if Egyptians see the help as "meddling," it would not be acceptable, and, as one can imagine, almost any help could be read as meddling. 
The United States has today stated its support for the military's actions, but not the deaths, and says it believes the military leadership when it says that movement toward civilian government is advancing as fast as possible. More countries should continue to take an active interest, through their diplomatic relationships and to speak out in support of the effort everyone in Egypt is making to put their country back into working order.