It's Bastille Day...Vive la France!

Americans have The 4th of July. The French have their Fête Nationale, which most French people simply call Quatorze juillet, and the English-speaking world calls Bastille Day. ~~~~~ On 19 May 1789, Louis XVI convened the Estates-General to hear their grievances. The deputies of the Third Estate, representing the common people (the two others were the Catholic Church and nobility), decided to break away and form a National Assembly. The Third Estate took the "Tennis Court Oath," swearing not to separate until a constitution had been established. They were gradually joined by delegates of the other estates. Louis XVI started to recognize their validity on 27 June. The assembly renamed itself the National Constituent Assembly on 9 July, and began to function as a legislature and to draft a constitution. In the wake of the 11 July dismissal of Minister Necker who was sympathetic to the Third Estate, the people of Paris, fearful that they and their representatives would be attacked by the royal army, and seeking to gain ammunition and gunpowder for the general populace, on July 14, 1789, stormed the Bastille, a fortress and prison where important political prisoners were held. Shortly thereafter, King Louis XVI and his wife Marie Antoinette took refuge in Versailles as the violent peasants pillaged and burned châteaux, and destroyed records of feudal dues -- this reaction is known as the grande peur (great fear). For the peasant class, the Bastille stood as a symbol of the hypocrisy and corruption of the aristocratic government - controlled mostly by nobility and clergy. This important event marked the entry of the popular class into the French Revolution. The French recognize Bastille Day as the end of the monarchy and beginning of the modern republic. The lasting significance of the event was in its recognition that power could be held by ordinary citizens, not in the king or in God. ~~~~~ Today, Parisians celebrate their national holiday with the oldest and largest military parade in Europe. Its participants -- representing every group of the French military from the Foreign Legion to the mounted Republican Guard to motorcycke gendarmes, and often regiments from invited foreign militaries -- march up the Champs Elysées past the reviewing stand where the French President and representatives of the governments of every French-speaking nation are assembled. Quatorze juillet later is celebrated by family and neighborhood and village outings with picnics, barbeques, music and fireworks. The magnificent Paris fireworks display is at the Eiffel Tower. ~~~~~ A very happy independence Day to our French friends. Vive la France!

Obama's Middle East Policy Favoring Iran Creates Violence

This weekend, while the world was watching the modern Greek tragedy unfold and keeping an ear tuned to Vienna for news about the Iran nuclear negotiations, there were several disturbingly 'ordinary everyday' occurrences in the Middle East. ~~~~~ A suicide car bomb killed 33 people and wounded 10 in southeastern Afghanistan. The attack took place close to a US base on Sunday, according to Afghan police -- close to a checkpoint on the outskirts of the city of Khost where several cars had been stopped, Khost police chief Faizullah Ghairat said. The US military said none of its personnel were injured. The UN has reported that most of the casualties were civilians and 12 were children. The base at Camp Chapman, once used by the CIA to help oversee strikes against Taliban and al-Qaida targets, suffered one of the worst attacks in CIA history in late 2009, when seven intelligence officers were killed by an al-Qaida operative that Americans thought had been"de-radicalized." ~~~~~ Four people were killed and 15 wounded when a rocket hit a residential district in the eastern Libyan port city of Benghazi on Sunday, medics reported. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack. But, ISIS militants have claimed that they launched previous rocket attacks in Benghazi, where army forces and armed local militias have been fighting Islamist groups for more than a year. The rocket attack on the busy street came just hours after a jet attack west of Benghazi hit a bulldozer loaded with ammunition, according to Nasser al-Hasi, an air force spokesman. Benghazi fighting is part of the war raging in Libya between rebel groups who helped topple Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 and now back rival governments. Both sides command coalitions of former anti-Qaddafi rebels calling themselves armies, which were re-organized along political, regional and tribal lines after Qaddafi was overthrown and killed. ~~~~~ A section of the wall of the ancient citadel in Aleppo was destroyed on Sunday by an explosion in a tunnel under the city, according to a Reuters report. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the damage occurred when government forces blew up a tunnel dug by insurgents under the city, while the state news agency said the tunnel was blown up by rebels. A section of the wall was shown turned to rubble in footage posted online by Halab News Network, an activist outlet. The Ancient City of Aleppo has been on the UNESCO list of World Heritage sites in danger since 2013. Aleppo was Syria's largest city before the civil war began. It is now divided into areas controlled by the al-Assad government and areas controlled by insurgents who are battling to topple President al-Assad. ~~~~~ Fighting near the southern Yemeni city of Aden killed 35 people on Sunday, the government in exile said. The fighting is a breach of a temporary humanitarian truce brokered by the UN. A week-long truce was supposed to start on Saturday to allow aid deliveries to Yemen's 21 million people who have been affected by the civil war, but there was no sign of any abatement in the bombing. At least 10 people were also killed in air strikes overnight into Sunday across Yemen, according to medical sources. A coalition of Arab states has been bombarding the Iranian-allied Houthi rebel movement - Yemen's dominant military force - since late March in an effort to reinstate President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who has fled to exile in Riyadh. The coalition, in coordination with forces loyal to Hadi, on Sunday captured Ras Amran, killing 30 Houthi fighters and five coalition fighters. Reuters reported that air strikes on the Yemeni capital Sanaa had resumed on Sunday morning. In a separate incident, Houthi fighters and allied units in Yemen's factionalized army attacked a water storage tank in the central Aden neighborhood of Crater, residents said. ~~~~~ Car bombs and suicide attacks targeting shiite Moslem districts of Baghdad killed 35 people on Sunday, one of the heaviest recent tolls in the Iraqi capital, which has faced a wave of bombings by ISIS militants. The deadliest attack was in the northern Shaab neighborhood, where a car bomb followed by a suicide blast killed 19 people, according to security and medical sources. The car exploded near a crowded market and, as police and bystanders gathered, an attacker detonated explosives strapped to his body. In Bunouk district in Baghdad's northeast, a car bomb killed nine people, sources said. Security forces said they were sweeping areas nearby, some with sniffer dogs, after receiving information about two other possible bombs. More than 100 people were wounded in the three explosions. There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but ISIS militants who control much of northern Iraq and the province of Anbar west of Baghdad regularly send bombers into the capital. Earlier on Sunday, a suicide bomber killed five people in Kadhimiya neighborhood, site of one of shiite Islam's holiest shrines, shortly before dusk and the end of the daily Ramadan fast. Another bomb in the Iskan district of western Baghdad killed two people, medical sources said. ~~~~~ Dear readers, in February, President Obama gave an extensive interview to Vox. In it he explained the goal of his foreign policy in the Middle East : "You take the victories where you can. You make things a little bit better rather than a little bit worse. And that is in no way a concession to this idea that America is withdrawing or there’s not much we can do. It’s just a realistic assessment of how the world works.” Perhaps it is time for President Obama to reconsider his definition of making things "a little bit better." While he and his Secretary of State rush to give Iran the deal that will fund its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program, President Obama might pause to consider the elephant in the negotiation room that Iran and he have agreed not to discuss -- the fact that Iran is a terrorist state wreaking havoc all over the Middle East. Sunday's bombings are evidence of the violently destabilizing character of the Iran regime. Iran's tentacles are long and wrap around every corner of the Moslem world. The elimination of all sanctions now in place against Iran will not only fund nuclear bombs and the ICBMs to launch them into Israel, Saudi Arabia, Europe and eventually the US -- that freed-up money will also increase Iran-sponsored terrorism in the region. Instead of making things "a little bit better," President Obama's Middle East policy goal and his emphasis on an Iran deal are making things immeasurably worse.

Saturday Email Bag : Donald Trump, the Confederate Flag, PC Speak and Democracy in America

It's Saturday email box time -- and your comments and questions this week are about Greece and the Iran nuclear negotiations. But, dear readers, we've discussed these two topics all week and are now waiting for resolution...in Brussels and Vienna. So, with your indulgence, I would like to take up another question that I promised to address this week. Democracy in America. If Greece is forcing the European Union to pay more attention to the democratic voices of its member states and their citizens, the negotiations between the US-led P5+1 and Iran have been a poster child for how not to treat the democratically elected members of the American Congress and the citizens who elect them. ~~~~~ And we need only look to Donald Trump, who is personally feeling the battering democracy is taking in the US at present. Trump is being trashed by mainstream network media and politicians for his comments about illegal immigrants coming from Mexico, many of whom he says are drug dealers and rapists. Trump has seen some of his business deals come unravelled and his relationship with the Republican Party and its presidential candidates become what we could call testy, at best. Trump’s presidential rivals at first avoided his comments about Mexican criminals pouring into the US, although several in the last week have carefully distanced themselves from Trump -- carefully, because they know that Trump's position on illegal immigrants resonates strongly with GOP voters. The proof? Trump continues to poll strongly and now has a seat in next month’s GOP debate on Fox. In addition, Trump accounted for an amazing 48% of all social-media and traditional-media conversation about politics in the last week, according to analytics group Zignal work for the Washington Post. Trump had 1.9 million mentions, compared with just 448,000 for top Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton. And, the latest North Carolina PPP poll shows that Donald Trump's momentum wih GOP voters keeps on building. He's the top choice of Republican primary voters in North Carolina, getting 16% to 12% for Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 9% for Ben Carson and Marco Rubio, 7% for Rand Paul, 6% for Ted Cruz, and 5% for Chris Christie. Trump is polling especially well with 'very conservative' voters - 66% see him favorably, with only 24% having a negative view of him. Trump held a press conference last night with the family of an African-American teenager slain by an illegal immigrant. Trump said the media is suppressing such stories, and CNN cut off its coverage when the dead boy's family started to say that they know that this suppression exists. ~~~~~ Another example of the position of a majority of American citizens being ignored by the media and many politicians occurred during South Carolina's debate over the question of the Confederate flag being flown at a monument on statehouse property. A majority of Americans see the Confederate flag as a symbol of Southern pride, not a reminder of racism, according to a new CNN/ORC poll taken last week. Among participants in the poll, 57% said it’s a symbol of Southern pride, 33% called it more a symbol of racism and 5% said it’s both equally. Among whites, 66% said it symbolizes pride, while just 17% of African-Americans responded that way. But, in the South, the racial divide is broader, with 75% of Southern whites describing the flag as a symbol of pride and 18% seeing it as a symbol of racism -- those figures are almost exactly reversed among Southern African-Americans, with just 11% seeing it as a sign of pride and 75% viewing it as a symbol of racism. And, while the CNN/ORC poll shows that a majority (55%) support removing the Confederate flag from government property that isn't part of a museum, and 50% support private companies choosing not to sell or manufacture items featuring the flag, most Americans oppose other efforts, including redesigning state flags that feature Confederate emblems or symbols to remove references to the Confederacy (57% oppose that), renaming streets and highways named after Confederate leaders (68% oppose that) and removing tributes to those who fought for the Confederacy from public places (71% oppose that). Among whites overall, not a single one of the five tested proposals has majority support, whereas among African-Americans, most favor removing flags from government property (73%), private companies stopping the sale or manufacture of products featuring the flag (65%) and redesigning state flags that feature Confederate references to remove them (59%). To put this in perspective, in 2013, the US Census Bureau estimated that there are 45 million African-Americans in the United States -- that is, 14.1% of the total American population of 316.1 million is Black, those who identify as ‘Black Only’ or as ‘Black in combination with another race’. But, the mainstream media treats the 14.1% as the voice of America. ~~~~~ What do these polls have to say about American democracy? First, mainstream network media - Fox News on cable excepted - doesn't agree with American majority opinion and so it ignores it or derides anyone who represents it. This goes a long way to explaining why Fox has a bigger audience than any mainstream media network. Second, politicians seem more influenced by the media's position than by that of their constituents -- at least when they appear on mainstream media, they back away from their constituencies' positions in favor of the media's. This may explain why Americans have such a low opinion of Congress -- 15% view Congress favorably. Third, while the First Amendment right to speak freely is granted to mainstream media, which is usually a spokesperson for minority opinion, those who represent majority opinion are not given equal time or a fair hearing. Although I didn't use the example of the Iran nuclear negotiations, it shows this bias clearly. While 70% to 80% of Americans do not favor any deal with Iran -- because they see Iran violating any accord, building nuclear weapons and using them in the Middle East -- mainstream media focuses on whether Iran will agree to enough of President Obama's terms so a 'legacy' deal can be signed. ~~~~~ Dear readers, the media is not elected. But it is protected by the First Amendment and can say whatever it chooses. However, American citizens are also protected by the First Amendment -- and they, not the media, must preserve their own free speech rights, despite the efforts of the left and mainstream media to silence them through false "Politically Correct" rules. Ask Donald Trump about trying to break free of PC speak. Without free speech and its marketplace of ideas, democracy dies. Period. End of Story. Elections have meaning. Contacting a Congress member has meaning. Boycotts have meaning. Topnotch spokespeople for the majority have meaning. As Edmund Burke said : "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

Greece : Will Honest French Help or Misplaced German Hubris Prevail

EARLY BREAKING NEWS FROM EUROPE. The new Greek bailout offer was submitted yesterday two hours before the EU-set deadline. The proposal wasn't published but some details have been leaked, suggesting that there has been a partial capitulation by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who says he does not have a mandate to leave the Eurozone. The new proposal is reported to include defense spending cuts, tax hikes and steps to cut pension costs. Reuters reports that the Greek daily newspaper Naftemporiki has outlined $13.2 billion in deficit-cutting reforms offered by Greece. They include a corporate tax increase to 28% from 26%; a VAT increase on luxury goods to 13% from 10%; a VAT increase on processed foods, restaurants, transport and some private health services to 23% from 13%; and a VAT increase for hotels to 13% from 6.5%. But Tsipras seems to have made progress on debt relief, which he has always characterized as non-negotiable. Tsipras is conviced that austerity measures are insufficient and have to be accompanied by a reduction in Greece’s €320 billion debt. Germany’s hardline finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble finally gave a little on Thursday, admitting that “debt sustainability is not feasible without a haircut,” i.e., debt writedown, even if he then seemed to backtrack. But Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated again yesterday her position that a classic writedown of any of Greece's debt was not possible. She did say that lower interest rates and longer repayment periods could be discussed. ~~~~~ In the past 24 hours, the balance of power among EU leaders is shifting toward making whatever compromises are required to give relief to the Greek people and economy in order to keep Greece in the Eurozone and in the EU. Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland and the president of the European Council, said on Twitter and in the European Parliament that any “realistic proposal from Athens needs to be matched by realistic proposal from creditors on debt sustainability to create a win-win situation." Only Germany opposes this approach -- 89% of Germans want Greece to leave the Euro, according to the Bild tabloid. ~~~~~ Greece’s main creditors -- the Eurozone, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- are scheduled to review the new proposal in Brussels on Friday. Final approval will also require an assessment by the 19 finance ministers of Eurozone countries, the so-called Eurogroup, whose meeting has been scheduled for Saturday afternoon in Brussels. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi told reporters that he hope the Eurogroup will agree to the new Greek proposal and eliminate the need for the scheduled full EU leadership meeting on Sunday. ~~~~~ The most important help for Greece's position has come from France. Greece received key political support and technical assistance from France, highlighting the differences between the two leading EU powers. While Germany has stood firm against concessions to Greece and, in Schäuble’s case, openly doubted that Greece really belongs in the Eurozone, France has worked to find a deal. French assistance in the form of reviewing the Greek proposal to make sure it is as thorough and marketable as possible to Greece’s creditors seems to have been a critical factor. A French official said : “There is a group of people who have been sent to help the Greeks, to try to transform words into action.” France has supported Tsipras more steadfastly than any other major EU country and has been outspoken in recent days about the need for a compromise to both help Greece and hold the Eurozone together. By contrast, Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel has shown little inclination to compromise, demanding that Greece show that it can be fiscally responsible by adopting reforms before the EU even considers new bailout aid. In 2012, when Greece was at the center of the last flare-up in Europe’s ongoing debt crisis, many French officials maintained that the Eurozone is fundamentally a historic project, and that it should not risk being broken up by the departure of Greece, or of any other Eurozone country. This week, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls told the National Assembly : “France refuses that Greece leaves the Eurozone in the name of our position and our commitments.” His speech was broadcast live on Greek TV. To secure a deal, Valls said Greece needed to pledge to modernize its economy and overhaul pensions. French President Hollande said early today that France aims to "do everything to get a good deal, a deal that respects European rules and respects the Greeks, too, because they have suffered a great deal for several years, and at the same time they have to understand that reforms are essential." French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron said in Madrid today that he was "reasonably optimistic" Greece would reach an aid-for-reforms deal with its creditors, adding that major advances have occurred in recent days and saying a discussion about Greece's debt burden is needed. ~~~~~ Dear readers, today Prime Minister Tsipras must convince the Greek Parliament to support his new reform proposal that is much more onerous for Greece than prior offers. Tsipras must have the votes of the radical elements of his Syriza party to support a package that in essence was unthinkable for many of them last week. Greek media report that Parliament will back Tsipras, but even if Tsipras succeeds in holding his party in line, it's far too early to know whether this prospective new bailout will be any more effective than earlier ones in balancing the demands of Greece's creditors against the Greek people's desperate need for relief from austerity. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate economist, wrote an article yesterday for Time entitled "The US Must Save Greece." Stiglitz debunks many of the false negative stereotypes about Greece built up by EU leaders -- Merkel, Schäuble, Juncker, Dijsselbloem. He also has a suggestion or two for saving Geeece if the EU fails : "As the Greek saga continues, many have marveled at Germany’s chutzpah. It received, in real terms, one of the largest bailout and debt reductions in history and unconditional aid from the US in the Marshall Plan. And yet it refuses even to discuss debt relief. Many, too, have marveled at how Germany has done so well in the propaganda game, selling an image of a long-failed state [Greece] that refuses to go along with the minimal conditions demanded in return for generous aid. The facts prove otherwise: From the mid-90’s to the beginning of the crisis, the Greek economy was growing at a faster rate than the EU average (3.9% vs 2.4%). The Greeks took austerity to heart, slashing expenditures and increasing taxes. They even achieved a primary surplus (that is, tax revenues exceeded expenditures excluding interest payments), and their fiscal position would have been truly impressive had they not gone into depression. Their depression -- 25% decline in GDP and 25% unemployment, with youth unemployment twice that -- is because they did what was demanded of them, not because of their failure to do so. It [the depression] was the predictable and predicted response to the austerity....The US was generous with Germany as we defeated it. Now, it is time for the US to be generous with our friends in Greece in their time of need, as they have been crushed for the second time in a century by Germany, this time with the support of the troika. At a technical level, the Federal Reserve needs to create a swap line with Greece’s central bank, which -- as a result of the default of the ECB in fulfilling its responsibilities -- will have to take on once again the role of lender of last resort. Greece needs humanitarian aid; it needs Americans to buy its products, take vacations there, and show a solidarity with Greece and a humanity that its European partners were not able to display." But, today it seems likely that the EU will finally step up to its responsibilities to help Greece. It would be a showing of EU solidarity with Greece if the Eurozone finance ministers actually reduced any offered cutbacks in pensions for current Greek pensioners and agreed to debt relief, without which none of the new reforms will have a chance of succeeding. But, Germany, having in reality forced Greece to its knees, now dares to question whether Greece is sincere in carrying out its new proposal or whether Greece will get a deal and then refuse to implement it. German politicians and media are calling it a coming "bad surprise." But Europe knows that it has been Germany that delivered "bad surprises" - twice. There really is no end to German hubris.