EU Citizens Make President Trump's Message Their Own; the European Union Must Heed Its Citizens or Die a Slow Death

MAKING SENSE OUT OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS. This isn't easy because of the many groups fielding candidates and the fact that elections were held in 28 EU member states with very different political agendas -- including the UK that ostensibly doesn't want to be in th EU at all but had to elect EP members (MEPs) because the British Parliament hasn't figured out yet how to get out of the EU. Add to that the coalitions that will be attempted in order to create a working majority block and the problem is clear. • • • THE OFFICIAL RESULTS. Let's start with the official European Union election results for the 2019 European Parliament. Here are the political groups in the European Parliament and the number of seats they won last weekend. §§§ EPP - Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) -- 177 seats. §§§ S&D - Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament -- 150 seats. §§§ ECR - European Conservatives and Reformists Group -- 63 seats. §§§ ALDE&R - Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe + Renaissance + USR PLUS -- 107 seats. §§§ GUE/NGL - Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left -- 39 seats. §§§ Greens/EFA - Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance -- 69 seats. EFDD - Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy Group -- 54 seats. §§§ ENF - Europe of Nations and Freedom Group -- 58 seats. §§§ NI - Non-attached Members -- 8 seats. Others - Newly elected Members not allied to any of the political groups set up in the outgoing Parliament -- 26 seats. [As a side note, look at that conglomeration and think about the political mess a parliamentary system of government existing all over the EU can create.] If you want to see country-by-country results, it is available at < https://election-results.eu/breakdown-national-parties-political-group/2019-2024 > . • • • EVERYONE KNEW THE 2019 EP ELECTIONS WOULD CHALLENGE THE CURRENT EU LEADERSHIP. While the voting was still underway, CNBC reported on Sunday that : "The European parliamentary election is the second-largest democratic exercise in the world [India is the largest], with citizens across 28 nations voting for their new representatives. This year’s vote was particularly relevant due to the surge of anti-EU and nationalist parties across the region....At the same time, the traditional mainstream majority between the Socialists and the Conservatives, which has led Europe over the last few decades, was expected to come to an end....The EU Parliament will be much more fragmented over the next five years with the established centrist bloc failing to gain a majority at this week’s election, early election results and projections show. The initial results suggested a strong showing for Liberal and Green parties, with Euroskeptic groups in France and the UK holding the gains they saw in 2014. Italy’s anti-immigration Lega party was also expected to make large gains, according to exit polls....One of its biggest challenges is voter turnout, however, early indications show turnout at this election has risen for the first time 40 years. The European Parliament’s first estimate of the overall turnout in the elections was somewhere between 49% and 51%. That’s up from 43% in the 2014 election." • The BBC reported on Monday, with more but not all results tallied, that : "A clear trend was the 'Green wave,' with a surge of Green MEPs elected. The big centre-right and centre-left blocs in the European Parliament have lost their combined majority amid an increase in support for liberals, the Greens and nationalists. Pro-EU parties are still expected to be in a majority but the traditional blocs will need to seek new alliances. The liberals and Greens had a good night, while nationalists were victorious in Italy, France and the UK....Although populist and far-right parties gained ground in some countries, they fell short of the very significant gains some had predicted." • • • THE COALITION BUILDING BEGINS. National leaders of all the EU member states are in Brussels on Tuesday, assessing the EP election results. The BBC suggested on Monday that some clear trends have emerged : "The centre-right European People's Party (EPP) remains the largest bloc and analysts say it is likely to form a grand coalition with the Socialists and Democrats bloc, but based on current estimates, the previously dominant conservative EPP and Socialists and Democrats blocs will be unable to form a "grand coalition" without support from liberals and the Greens. Pro-EU parties are still expected to hold a majority of seats, HOWEVER, largely due to gains made by the liberal ALDE bloc [Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the ALDE, said "For the first time in 40 years, the two classical parties, socialists and conservatives, will no longer have a majority. It's clear this evening is a historical moment, because there will be a new balance of power in the European Parliament."], and particularly a decision taken by the party of French President Emmanuel Macron to join the group. His Renaissance alliance was defeated by the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen. In the UK, the newly-formed Brexit Party claimed a big victory, and a strong performance by the Liberal Democrats came amid massive losses for the Conservatives and Labour. Gains for nationalist parties in Italy, France and elsewhere means a greater say for Euroskeptics who want to curb the EU's powers. Matteo Salvini, who leads Italy's Lega (League) party, has been working to establish an alliance of at least 12 parties, and his party set the tone winning more than 30% of the vote. This outcome reflects a tendency already apparent in national elections all over Europe : rejection of the status quo. Look at the beating meted out to France's centre-right and centre-left, to Angela Merkel and her Social Democrat coalition partners, plus the slap in the face delivered to the UK's Conservative and Labour parties. Europe's voters are looking elsewhere for answers. They're drawn to parties and political personalities they feel better represent their values and priorities. Some are attracted by the nationalist right, promising a crackdown on immigration and more power for national parliaments, rather than Brussels. Italy's firebrand Deputy PM Matteo Salvini is a successful example [he said 'Europe is changing'], as is Hungary's Viktor Orban,....whose anti-immigration Fidesz party took 52% of the vote and 13 of the country's 21 seats....'We are small but we want to change Europe,' Mr Orban said. He described the elections as 'the beginning of a new era against migration.' Other voters prefer a pro-European alternative, like the Green Party and liberal groups. They also performed well in these elections." • BBC asked on Monday, "Who were the winners and losers?" BBC's answer is this : "In Germany, both major centrist parties suffered. Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats dropped from 35% of the vote in 2014 to 28%, while the centre-left Social Democratic Union fell from 27% to 15.5%. The right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) performed worse than expected -- projected in exit polls to win 10.5% -- while still improving on its first results in 2014. In the UK, the newly formed Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage, secured about 32% of the vote, amid gains for the Liberal Democrats and significant losses for the Conservative and Labour parties....Ms Le Pen's National Rally party -- formerly the National Front -- was celebrating victory in France over Mr Macron's party, securing 24% of the vote to his 22.5%. Marine Le Pen's National Rally beat Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance - but not by far. A presidential official [for Macron] described the outcome as a 'disappointment' but 'absolutely honourable' compared to previous results....In Spain, the ruling Socialist party (PSOE) took a clear lead with 32.8% of the vote and 20 seats, while the far-right Vox party won just 6.2% and three seats -- coming in fifth. In Greece, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for an early election after the opposition conservative New Democracy party won 33.5% of the votes to 20% for his Syriza party. The right-wing ruling Law and Justice party did well in Poland, winning 45% of the vote, and 27 of the country's 51 seats." • • • WHAT DOES THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT DO?? The European Parliament is the EU's law-making body. It helps to shape EU legislation -- reviewing and passing laws proposed by the European Commission -- the bureaucratic executive arm of the EU. The latest election results will also play a big part in who gets the key jobs in the European Commission, the Union's executive. The EP is also responsible for electing the president of the European Commission and approving the EU budget. The EP is comprised of the above eight main groups that sit together in the chamber based on their political and ideological affiliations. As Newsmax put it à propos of the coming changes : "The Parliament as an institution has insisted that one of its own winning members should succeed Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the executive European Commission. But many national leaders, who will meet over dinner in Brussels on Tuesday, have said they will not be bound by that demand." • • • MACRON AND MERKEL THE BIG LOSERS. Newsmax reported it on Sunday under the title "Macron Suffers Big Blow with Loss to Le Pen in EU Vote," stating : "Marine Le Pen's far-right party edged just ahead of the centrist alliance of President Emmanuel Macron in exit polls as French voters led what pollsters expected to be a nationalist surge in an EU parliament election on Sunday. The defeat was narrow -- just one seat -- but a bitter one for for those who hope the French leader can inspire Europeans to embrace the Union as an answer rather than part of the problem in the face of what for many is nerve-wracking social change....In France, an official in Macron's team acknowledged 'some disappointment' that, with some 22%, the president's Renaissance movement had lost first place to Le Pen's National Rally, which exit polls put on 24%. However, pro-EU parties were still in the majority, with the French Greens coming third. Added to the dazzling second place of their German counterparts, that lent credibility to expectations of a 'green wave' that will influence policy in Brussels in the coming years....In Germany, the biggest member state...an exit poll for public broadcaster ARD showed the Greens on 22%, Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and their conservative allies on 28%, down eight points from 2014, and the Social Democrats slumping nearly 12 points to 15.5%....the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) raised its share of the EU vote by 3.4% to 10.5%." But, Newsmax also added that unrest was apparent : "As the European Parliament in Brussels prepared for the EU-wide count, Brussels police detained dozens of 'yellow vest' protesters, part of a movement that began in France to voice discontent with the political establishment. And outside the Belgian capital, a new far-right surge was evident in a national election that also took place on Sunday. The far-right Vlaams Belang surpassed expectations in the richer half of the country, running second in wealthy Flanders." • • • CREEPING SOCIALISM VS POPULIST NATIONALISM. At the root of the European Union's agitation is the traditional leadership creep toward socialism in the face of a newly awakened popular belief that this is not the road they want to take. • American Thinker published an article by Richard Jack Rail on Monday titles "Pitfalls along the road to socialism." Rail writes : "All over Europe, elections are teaching Brussels that Greeks like being Greek, Brits Brit, and French French. Nobody much cottons to being 'European,' where some Belgian bureaucrat says what you will and won't do in your small town where another language is spoken and people don't like paying huge salaries to self-important nobodies in gray flannel suits. The population of Europe is discovering that it really doesn't like the creeping socialism of the European Union, though many probably don't even realize that that's what they're mad about. It isn't even full-blown socialism yet, but everybody knows that's the destination, and the shine has worn off. Happens every time on the long and winding road to socialism. Some insightful sage noted that you can vote your way into socialism but you have to shoot your way out." • Rail sees a bleak future for Europe if the leaders don't cede to popular demands. Rail paints the perfect picture of what creeping socialism finally leads to : "That's what waits at the end of the road Europe is on. Strife. Once it breaks into the open, citizens will suddenly understand why they haven't been allowed to own private firearms. It's a lesson Venezuelans have learned the hard way and that many Americans still don't get. But Europe will probably have to get hungry first. Literally hungry, and not 'literally' in the Joe Biden sense. Perhaps before that, Europe will get literally cold as Moscow starts playing with the natural gas spigot, just to show who's really boss. Certainly, before that, Europeans will run low on gasoline and will have to wait in line for a few expensive liters to get home from the jobs that just laid them off. Rough times await Europeans. They're going to discover they need all that self-regenerating energy that greenness doesn't provide but that they paid billions for. They will shiver in their homes from all the warming not caused by the CO2 their bodies emit. Disease will spread as trash builds up and clean water stops. Gunshots in the streets will remind them they have no defense against rioting, looting crowds. It will be Venezuela all over again, and meek half-steps will not check the social ills. As civilization crumbles, the choice will be suppression now or repression later. Rebel now, get suppressed now. Don't rebel now, get repressed later anyway. In either case, rebellion will take a while to get going, during which the supranationalist kingpins will keep on quietly arranging the complete demise of the nationalities.That's what illegal immigration's all about. By this late date, many of us can see the endgame from the supra perspective : replace the native populations of the West with people from places where social peace has never existed; tribal hatreds take the place of civil discourse; and sudden, violent death is a way of life. Hobbes's state of nature, famously nasty, brutish, and short, reasserts itself, with force the only form of control. Who controls the force? If you said, 'Brussels,' go to the head of the class." • Rail talks about President Trump's economy fueling both the populist surge and the determination of the EU leaders to continue the creeping : "Unknowingly, Donald Trump assists and impedes the entire process. The string-pullers behind the scenes want all this done on the sneak so the present populations don't become unpleasant. Trump's economy is improving lives the world over, and people everywhere are content to let the rising tide lift their boats. But once the Trumpian economy stalls, as it inevitably will, things could quickly turn fractious. In time, they will become fractious. Europe, you have a problem. If you don't take care of it, it becomes everyone else's problem, too. Without America taking up the slack when you fail, you have become the leading barometer of Western success or failure defending against the forces of evil tearing at its foundations. The surprise election results going on across the continent are glimmerings of the fight for Greeks to be Greek, Brits Brit, and French French." • What Richard Jack Rail misses is the political kingpin that Donald Trump has become for Europeans because of his astounding US 2016 presidential victory. He is quoted and brandished in admiration as an indication of what Europeans can achieve for their countries and themselves personally. In a European Union where jobs are hard to find, living wages are often out of reach, and taxes are higher and higher, Europeans are tired of the promises of the EU and see its failure to deliver. President Trump is the light at the end of the tunnel, and every effort of the EU leaders to reject him -- think Iran, the Russian gas pipeline, NATO payments, trade barriers they wave at him as "just" -- simply makes President Trump a brighter light for Europeans fed up with the EU. • Even the New York Times gets it. On Tuesday, David Leonhardt, the NYT op-ed columnist who hates President Trump and his successes, had to admit that : "The shrinking of Europe’s traditional political parties continues. In Britain, the two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, finished in third place and fifth place in this weekend’s European Parliament elections. The populist right-wing Brexit Party finished first, with close to 32% of votes. In Germany, the two establishment parties -- one center-right and one center-left -- lost more than quarter of their combined seats. The biggest gainers were the left-leaning Greens. In France, the Greens gained as well, although the right-wing National Rally (known until recently as the National Front) finished first. The two traditional parties finished fourth and sixth." Of course, Leonhardt sees these victories as dangerous : "Many people felt relief that far-right parties -- which traffic in xenophobia -- didn’t do better in this weekend’s elections. Instead, candidates who support the idea of the European Union combined to win a majority of seats. I share that relief." BUT, even Leonhardt had to state : "I think it’s important not to lose sight of the main story line. Across much of Europe and the United States, dissatisfaction with the status quo remains the dominant political mood. That’s why so many European parties that were powerful only a few years ago now finish well outside the top two spots. It’s also why Donald Trump was able to take over the Republican Party and win the presidency -- and why control of Congress has flipped back and forth in recent years. In the 2020 presidential campaign, Trump will no doubt attempt to tap into this anti-establishment mood once again. He will be the incumbent, which will make that strategy trickier for him. But he will be an incumbent like no other, one who constantly shows his disdain for the status quo. Democrats will need their own plan for speaking to this desire for change, especially if they nominate the decidedly establishment Joe Biden." • • • EUROPE AT THE CROSSROADS. Coming from Leonhardt, that is a serious and observant warning to those now trying to stop the people's march to control of their governments and lives. • Newsmax, and his own NYT, were ahead of Leonhardt on Monday with an article titled "3 Stats Modelers Give Trump Big 'Tailwind' for Re-election." Eric Mack wrote : "A strong economy gives President Donald Trump a large 'tailwind' in the 2020 presidential race, a variable three statistical modelers favor to project his re-election, according to Steven Rattner, a counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration. 'The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections,' Rattner, a Wall Street executive, wrote in an opinion piece Monday for the New York Times. 'At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind. But how big is that tailwind? Fortunately, economists have worked hard to develop models for predicting election outcomes, and according to one of the best of these, it should be quite large.' " • Newsmax says : "The three statistical experts sourced by Rattner include Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi, who has analyzed 12 models that all project President Trump as the winner, and Trend Macrolytics's Donald Luskin, who honed in on the Electoral College and also projected re-election. But, the best one, Rattner says, is Ray Fair, a Yale professor, whose model finds GDP growth and inflation are the two most economic predictors and incumbency the most important 'determinant of presidential election outcomes.' Fair's models pegged former President Barack Obama's victories and President Trump's shocker in 2016. With a strong economy and incumbency on his side -- unlike Democrats in 2016 who were opposing historical data -- President Trump could get as much as 56.1% of the vote, even if pollsters are favoring Democratic primary frontrunner Joe Biden right now, according to Rattner. 'In 2020, incumbency will be a tailwind for Mr. Trump as the vast majority of Presidents are chosen for a second term,' he wrote in the Times. So the question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters’ poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election,' Rattner concluded." • Europe, as is usually the case, is playing catch-up with the United States -- this time it is in politics and the sweeping changes citizens are demanding of government. Lower taxes. Less regulation. Fewer immigrants who are incompatible with Western values. More job choices and better jobs. Leaders who actually understand what Western values are and use them as their guideposts. Acknowledgement of cultural axioms around language, religion, and political goals. These are not Einstein's Theory of Relativity exploding onto an unsuspecting world. These are the Judeo-Christian values that have shaped Western Civilization for 3,000 years. They are values that will not die or be forever kowed, once experienced. • • • DEAR READERS, in Warsaw on July 6, 2017, President Trump told Europe to remember its heritage, with Poland as his example : "Through four decades of communist rule, Poland and the other captive nations of Europe endured a brutal campaign to demolish freedom, your faith, your laws, your history, your identity -- indeed the very essence of your culture and your humanity. Yet, through it all, you never lost that spirit. Your oppressors tried to break you, but Poland could not be broken. And when the day came on June 2nd, 1979, and one million Poles gathered around Victory Square for their very first mass with their Polish Pope, that day, every communist in Warsaw must have known that their oppressive system would soon come crashing down. They must have known it at the exact moment during Pope John Paul II’s sermon when a million Polish men, women, and children suddenly raised their voices in a single prayer. A million Polish people did not ask for wealth. They did not ask for privilege. Instead, one million Poles sang three simple words : 'We Want God.' In those words, the Polish people recalled the promise of a better future. They found new courage to face down their oppressors, and they found the words to declare that Poland would be Poland once again. As I stand here today before this incredible crowd, this faithful nation, we can still hear those voices that echo through history. Their message is as true today as ever. The people of Poland, the people of America, and the people of Europe still cry out 'We want God.' Together, with Pope John Paul II, the Poles reasserted their identity as a nation devoted to God. And with that powerful declaration of who you are, you came to understand what to do and how to live. You stood in solidarity against oppression, against a lawless secret police, against a cruel and wicked system that impoverished your cities and your souls. And you won. Poland prevailed. Poland will always prevail....on both sides of the Atlantic, our citizens are confronted by yet another danger -- one firmly within our control. This danger is invisible to some but familiar to the Poles : the steady creep of government bureaucracy that drains the vitality and wealth of the people. The West became great not because of paperwork and regulations but because people were allowed to chase their dreams and pursue their destinies. Americans, Poles, and the nations of Europe value individual freedom and sovereignty. We must work together to confront forces, whether they come from inside or out, from the South or the East, that threaten over time to undermine these values and to erase the bonds of culture, faith and tradition that make us who we are. If left unchecked, these forces will undermine our courage, sap our spirit, and weaken our will to defend ourselves and our societies. But just as our adversaries and enemies of the past learned here in Poland, we know that these forces, too, are doomed to fail if we want them to fail. And we do, indeed, want them to fail. They are doomed not only because our alliance is strong, our countries are resilient, and our power is unmatched. Through all of that, you have to say everything is true. Our adversaries, however, are doomed because we will never forget who we are. And if we don’t forget who are, we just can't be beaten. Americans will never forget. The nations of Europe will never forget....Our own fight for the West does not begin on the battlefield -- it begins with our minds, our wills, and our souls. Today, the ties that unite our civilization are no less vital, and demand no less defense, than that bare shred of land on which the hope of Poland once totally rested. Our freedom, our civilization, and our survival depend on these bonds of history, culture, and memory. And today as ever, Poland is in our heart, and its people are in that fight. Just as Poland could not be broken, I declare today for the world to hear that the West will never, ever be broken. Our values will prevail. Our people will thrive. And our civilization will triumph." • President Trump's Warsaw Speech ranks with Churchill and Reagan as bright torches for modern democracy. Long after he has won his second term and then left the leadership field to the next generation of American patriots, Donald Trump's Warsaw speech will shine brightly in the hearts of those who cherish and fight for Western values. Read it at < https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings.../remarks-president-trump-people-poland/ >. Read it often. • European citizens, whether they have read the speech or not, understand its message and are taking their first steps to making its message their own. And, the European Union must heed its citizens or die a slow death.