Poroshenko Has Given Putin a Face-saving Way Out of the Ukraine Mess

For the first time in the Ukrainuan crisis, the leaders of Ukraine and Russia seem to be communicating with each other. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed support Saturday for Ukraine's unilateral cease-fire in the battle with pro-Russian separatists. Putin appealed to both sides to halt all military operations. But he warned that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's blueprint for peace would not work unless there is action to start peace negotiations. Poroshenko's effort to halt the conflict was made in the face of a series of shifting Kremlin moves and statements that leave unclear the level of Moscow's commitment to de-escalation. However, always ready with a stick to match his carrot, Putin's conciliatory words came on the same day that he ordered large-scale military exercises that NATO criticized as likely to raise tensions, while US officials accused Russian troops of moving back into positions near the border with Ukraine's troubled east. The Kremlin said in a statement that Putin "calls on the opposing sides to halt any military activities and sit down at the negotiating table." Putin's statement said that he supports Ukrainian President Poroshenko's decision to order Ukrainian troops to observe a unilateral cease-fire starting Friday night. But it added that Putin wanted to draw "attention to the fact that the proposed plan, without practical action directed at a beginning for a negotiating process, will not be viable or realistic." Poroshenko says the unilateral cease-fire is designed to make possible a wider peace plan that would include an amnesty for pro-Russian separatist fighters who disarm. Further steps would include joint security patrols, a buffer zone on the border, early regional and parliamentary elections, protections for the language rights of people who use Russian as their main language, and eventually changes in the constitution to permit more regional self-government. Ukrainian troops have tried for weeks to suppress separatists who have seized buildings and declared independence in the eastern Donetsk and Lugansk regions near the border with Russia. Ukraine and the United States have accused Russia of supporting the insurgency, including permitting tanks to cross the Russia-Ukraine border to end up in the rebels' arsenal. Russia counters that it does not support the insurgents and that any Russians who have joined the fighting are doing so as private citizens. ~~~~~ While the US and EU have called on Russia to support the ceasefire and stop its support for the pro-Russia rebels, it is unclear whether Russia can or will influence the pro-Russian fighters to de-escalate, join the ceasefire and negotiate. Pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine have dismissed the cease-fire as fake and they continued to shoot at Ukraine border positions after the truce began Friday night. There have been some injuries but no large-scale fighting was reported Saturday, the first full day of what is to be a 6 ½-day stand-down by the Ukrainian military ending next Friday morning. Putin and Poroshenko have consulted several times by phone on the Ukraine cease-fire initiative, but earlier Russian statements on the peace plan had called it an "ultimatum" seeking to pressure rebels to disarm. The latest conciliatory Putin statement contrasted with his Saturday order to put 60,000 military troops in central Russia on combat alert and to launch an exercise for airborne troops. The alert and exercises are in the Ural mountains, not western Russia, and will end next Saturday, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu on Saturday expressed concern for Moscow's military exercises, saying that "it can be seen as a further escalation of the crisis with Ukraine." ~~~~~ Dear readers, there is still the possibility that Vladimir Putin will change his mind and revert to support for hostilities against the elected government in Kiev, but his prepared statement said that President Putin : "supported the declaration of a unilateral cease-fire by President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine on Friday, as well as his intent to take a number of specific measures to reach a peaceful settlement.” But the statement added : “The peace plan proposed by President Poroshenko should not take the form of an ultimatum to militia groups...The opportunity that opens up with the end of hostilities should be used to start constructive negotiations and to reach a political compromise between the parties to the conflict in southeast Ukraine.” Perhaps Putin senses that Russia could become bogged down in a long-term civil conflict with no advantages for Russia - only the disadvantages of economic sanctions and the inevitable costs of supporting east Ukraine and its ageing industrial infrastructure. Russia has better uses for its resources, especially since Russia has already gotten what it wants - Crimea. And Putin knows that no effort to retake Crimea would be viable. As a Greek friend told me recently, "Everyone knows that Crimeans are Russian." So, it would be a good strategy for the US and the EU to use this week to finalize the details for negotiations that would bring Poroshenko and Putin to the table. There has never been a better opportunity to end the Ukraine ctisis. Poroshenko has given Putin what he needs - a face-saving way out.