What Is Really Happening in Mali?

"When in doubt, we will not fire," the French defense minister said today, trying to reassure the civilian population in Mali that French air strikes will avoid them to the maximum extent possible. He added that the French continued their airstrikes overnight into Wednesday. Targets destroyed so far include training camps, logistical depots, command centers and armored vehicles that the jihadists had earlier seized from Mali's government forces. French President Francois Hollande authorized the airstrikes last Friday after the islamic jihadists began a push southward toward the capital from the northern half of Mali that they control since seizing it last April in the chaos following a coup in Mali's capital. The French bombardments began in the town of Konna, on the north-south demarcation line, which the rebels occupied last Thursday. After initially saying they had stopped the rebel advance, France's defense minister on Tuesday acknowledged that Konna was still in the hands of the rebels. The jihadists have since taken the garrison town of Diabaly, farther south and 400 kilometers (210 miles) from the capital, Bamako. The French army is now massing troops and armored vehicles 70 kiloneters (25 miles) south of Diabaly, and the defense minister has said that an advance will begin within 72 hours. The French ground troops are expecting the arrival of promised neighboring country troops, but they have yet to deploy. And in what could be the first regional spillover from France's intervention in Mali, islamist militants attacked and occupied a natural gas complex, partly operated by energy giant BP, in southern Algeria on Wednesday. Two foreigners were killed and dozens of others, including Americans, were taken hostage. The rebels say they are holding 41 foreigners, including seven Americans. Local authorities estimate that around 20 people are being held, including Americans, Britons, Norwegians, French and Japanese. Moulathamine, or the Masked Brigade, called a Mauritanian news outlet to say one of its affiliates had carried out the operation on the Ain Amenas gas field. Hamaha, a leader of the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, one of the rebel groups controlling Mali's north, was in charge of the move against Diabaly. He is also a close associate of Moktar Belmokar, a leader of a local al-Qaida cell who claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of the foreigners in Algeria. Hamaha said the kidnapping was retribution for the French-led attack on the Islamists in Mali. "We are now globalizing our conflict," he said. ~~~~~ Dear readers, we must consider several possibilities. First, and very likely, the al-Qaida headquarter groups operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan have concluded that with the coming withdrawal of American troops fom Afghaniztan, they can safely leave the region to the local Taliban, who will be able to subdue the population and co-opt the Afghan and Pakistani security forces. Second, this means that al-Qaida is now in a position to take its jihad against the West elsewhere. What are the al-Qaida targets and goals? To further infiltrate and frighten Europe by taking the battle into Europe and gaining footholds on the continent. They already have cells in France, Germany and Britain ready to act. But to do this on a meaningful scale requires a launching point closer than Afghanistan...enter Mali. Al-Qaida related groups have been forming and training cells in Mali, Libya, Sudan and Somalie for sometime. Mali would seem to be the focal point because its north is landlocked and thus unavailable to naval bombardments and blockades. Provisioning from Sudan and Somalie are possible. And the entire West Africa area is Moslem, although French culturally. Mali is now the jumping off point for many clandestines seeking entry into Europe - why not for jihadists, too. Third -- this is the least substantiated -- have Western armies and intelligence forces reached the same conclusion? Do they want to take the fight to al-Qaida in Mali because it is open terrain where they can wear down the jihadists, forcing al-Qaida to commit large amounts of money, men and munitions in a war of pride and survival. And did the French and other Western military and intelligence forces lead President Hollande down a garden path - knowing all along that his agreement to bomb the jihadists would not save Mali but lead to the all-out war to destroy al-Qaida that they have planned for since 9/11. Stay tuned, dear readers. We have a long road ahead of us.